Pacers-Thunder Betting Preview: Which Offense Will Break Its Slump?

Betting Odds: Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder

• Spread: Thunder -6.5
• Over/Under: 217.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

The Indiana Pacers face the Oklahoma City Thunder for the second time this month and both teams are in desperate need of a win. The Thunder are 1-5 over the past two weeks, but their five-game home stand begins on Wednesday vs. a scrappy Indiana team.

Can the OKC finally flip the switch? Our analysts discuss.

What's at Stake

The Pacers have already secured a playoff spot, and the Thunder are all but in with eight games left on the schedule. However, both teams are fighting for seeding.

The Thunder have slipped over the past month from third in the West standings and four games out of first place to seventh in the West and just 0.5 games ahead of the No. 8 seed.

On the other side, the Pacers have a 1.5 game lead over the Celtics for the No. 4 seed and homecourt advantage in the first round. Including tonight's matchup, the Pacers' next seven games are against teams currently in the playoff standings.

Betting Trends to Know

The Pacers are a 6-point underdog on the road in OKC tonight. They have struggled away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse losing eight straight games and going 1-7 against the spread during that stretch.

Nate McMillan’s crew is 14-22-1 ATS on the road this season — the second least profitable team in the NBA. — John Ewing

Not only are the Pacers bad at covering on the road, they don't fare well against the Western Conference. When the Pacers face a Western Conference team on the road, they are just 4-10 ATS, failing to cover the spread in eight of their past nine games in that spot. — Evan Abrams

The Thunder haven't been the most reliable team when facing top competition. Against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better the Thunder are just 9-9 this season. When facing those teams at home, the Thunder are 4-5. — Malik Smith

Mears: How I'm Handicapping Tonight's Game

The Pacers are coming off a blowout win at home against Denver, 124-88. They posted a 123.7 Offensive Rating (87th percentile) and 92.2 Defensive Rating (93rd percentile). It was an incredibly impressive performance, led by wing Bojan Bogdanovic, who went off for 35 points on 13-of-16 shooting overall in just 26 minutes played.

But don’t be fooled.

That was an outlier performance compared to where they’ve been over the last month or so. They had some good indicators, sure: Myles Turner defended the rim incredibly well (the Nuggets shot just 50% at the rim) and the Pacers dominated in transition, adding 9.4 additional points per 100 possessions.

But outside of transition, they just got hot from mid-range, something that’s unlikely to continue with their current personnel. Further, the metrics from their past couple weeks are pretty terrifying.

During that stretch — which includes the Denver game, which says a lot — the Pacers have gone 3-6 and ranked 25th with a -7.3 point differential. They’re dead last in Offensive Rating and effective field goal percentage.

Again, really ugly.

They are really missing the shot creation of Victor Oladipo down the stretch, and their other main creator, Darren Collison, is questionable to suit up tonight with a quad injury. That means potentially a lot of minutes for Tyreke Evans, who has been disappointing this season, shooting just 39.2% from the field overall.

Does their recent play plus some recency bias after the Denver game mean there’s some value on the Thunder?

Maybe, although it’s hard to trust them right now, too. Over that same stretch of games, the Thunder rank 18th in point differential, 26th in offensive efficiency and 29th in effective field goal percentage.

On the year, they rely on getting to the rim above all else, ranking sixth in frequency of shots there. That could be tough against Turner, who is a darkhorse Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

You might see where I’m going with all this: the under of 217.5. So far today, the over is getting nearly 60% of the bets, but the under is getting 63% of the money. That discrepancy possibly indicates sharp money on the under, and I think that’s indeed the smart side.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.