We have an excellent slate of NBA Cup games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Friday, November 13.
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NBA Cup Predictions for Friday, November 13
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Bucks vs. Magic
Bucks +9
I tried so hard to get away from this bet, but the numbers forced my hand into taking the Bucks +9.5.
The Magic simply cannot be favored by double digits against anyone right now. I don't care that Jalen Suggs is popping up as questionable on the injury report; this Magic team has looked incredibly rough and has no business laying this kind of number.
The scheduling spot is tricky, as both teams are playing on the back end of a 3-in-4 (three games in four nights) with the Bucks traveling. However, my research actually shows that home teams tend to struggle a bit more on 3-in-4s than road teams do.
Even factoring in the travel, my model only makes this spread Magic -6. If I isolate strictly the in-season data for this year—which highlights exactly how bad Orlando has been offensively—the line drops all the way down to 4.5.
Getting 9.5 points provides the second-biggest spread edge on my entire board tonight. The Magic might come out and completely eradicate Milwaukee, which is why I am keeping this as a one-star play, but the value is far too great to ignore.
I couldn't stay away from it, so I am going to play the Bucks plus the points and inevitably be mad when they get blown out by a bad Orlando team.
Pick: Bucks +9 (-110)
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Cavaliers vs. Heat
Cavaliers +2.5
Based on how the market has priced both teams’ games this season, the correct price with a 2.5-point home-court advantage for Miami (with Miami nightlife plus two days’ rest for the Heat) should be Heat -1.2.
That’s before we consider that the Heat are 2-9 ATS this season with an average ATS margin of -7.8 per Killersports.com.
So right away, this line is incorrect. I project this inside of a point using preseason-built power ratings adjusted for injuries and in-season performance. Based solely on in-season performance, I make this line Cavs -6.7, which is aggressive but shows you how bad the Heat have been.
No Evan Mobley for the Cavs, which hurts, along with Sam Merrill. But Pelle Larson and Klay Thompson are questionable, and they need all the help they can get.
The Heat defense hasn’t been physical enough to play to its strengths, and the Cavaliers should be able to get threes up against Miami, which allows the most above-the-break threes in the league.
With Jarrett Allen back, the Cavs have an interior threat to punish switches with lobs, and athletes to keep up with Miami’s style. Giannis will get his, but it won’t be enough.
I’ve sworn off the Cavs like six times this season, but it’s worth seeing if Miami can actually put together an impressive game for what would honestly be the first time this season.
Pick: Cavaliers +2.5 (-110)
Davion Mitchell Over 14.5 Points
Davion Mitchell is second on the Heat in transition points, and the Cavs have been uncharacteristically sloppy in transition so far this season, giving up a bottom-three rate of possessions and bottom-seven in scoring efficiency.
Plus, this game forecasts as close. Mitchell leads the Heat in fourth quarter scoring, even over Giannis. He gets real aggressive sometimes, and I’d expect the same here if the game plays to script.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 14.5 Points (-112)
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Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Pelicans +2.5
I am holding my nose and taking the Pelicans +3.5 tonight, and honestly, I'm still wondering how I got here.
The Grizzlies got off to such a great start early on, and it felt awesome, but they have completely cooled off. They have lost four of their last five games and failed to cover the spread in four of those five. Their one victory in that stretch came against a banged-up Raptors team.
Notably, the Grizzlies just lost to and failed to cover against this exact same Pelicans team at home. Now we shift to a road environment, and the line has only adjusted by a point and a half, which frankly means it's sitting a little bit light.
Structurally, Memphis is really struggling with opposing size right now when Zach Edey is not on the floor. Isaiah Stewart has been playing a lot on the perimeter for them, and while he's been great offensively, he hasn't been nearly as impactful on the defensive end when they shift into switch coverages. The Grizzlies have a lot of weak points defensively right now.
On the other side, my metrics scream that New Orleans sucks. But then I sit down and watch them play, and I realize they actually have some decent stuff going on. They aren't making a full stew, but they are cooking down some vegetables and making some stock. There is some seasoning there; it is not completely bland.
The Pelicans have plenty of size, and they can use that to keep up and attack those weak points in the Memphis defense.
My numbers only make this game Grizzlies -1.5. When you factor in the scheduling spot and everything else surrounding this matchup, taking the 3.5 points is solid value. God help me, I am backing the Pelicans to cover.
Pick: Pelicans +2.5 (-108)
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Jazz vs. Rockets
Over 219.5
The Jazz have been an under team this season, with a surprising number of games where they've held opponents under their team totals. But Utah has had just one game with a total south of 220 this season, which easily went over.
The Jazz's totals have been based on better projected offense along with worse defense. But Houston is legitimately good offensively this season, with the fourth-best offense against the third-toughest strength of schedule of defenses, per DunksAndThrees.com.
This is a NBA Cup game, and the Rockets need to win and win by a lot to give themselves a chance.
The Rockets will also probably take it pretty easy with Utah, who is missing Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson, and Jusuf Nurkic. Houston will smash them on the glass for putbacks.
Utah's pace is actually slower without Markkanen on the floor, which is a concern, but I still think this number is simply too great of an adjustment. Even with their bad offense this year, I still project this total over 219.5 based only on in-season numbers.
Pick: Over 219.5 (-114)
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Warriors vs. Spurs
Warriors +11.5
My projection: Warriors +11.8
I get it. Steph Curry is Steph Curry, and Steph Curry is out. But even when Curry has been amazing in previous years, the Warriors haven’t been able to compete, and they are competing right now.
How about this? Without Steph Curry on the floor this season, the Warriors are still +3.2 in net rating. That’s huge. They have someone to score and rebound in Yaxel Lendenborg, and Draymond Green has been great at staying physical with bigs like Victor Wembanyama.
The Warriors take a ton of threes, so they don’t need the interior as much with Wemby roaming, and they create second-chance points with long rebounds.
San Antonio is better, San Antonio is great. But the Spurs are favored by too many points against a Warriors team that has been legitimately good this season.
Pick: Warriors +11.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Kings
Trail Blazers -9.5
My projection: Blazers -11.3
The Kings covered their first matchup against the Blazers in Sacramento by 1.5 points in a weird game where the Kings started off red hot and led by double digits, lost almost the entire lead by halftime, and got destroyed in the second half, trailing by as many as 14.
I’m not convinced this is the same spot. Domantas Sabonis had 27-19-10 in that game. Now he’s barely even playing, basically a ghost for the Kings. They know the deal, and the deal is to get Darius Acuff Jr. as many shots as he can muster.
The Kings are literally the worst pick-and-roll defensive team in the league, according to Synergy Sports, and the Blazers are literally No. 1 in that category offensively.
There’s also a massive size advantage for the Blazers down low with Donovan Clingan, who should control offensive rebounds and make things difficult down low for a team that already has problems creating shots at the rim (27th) while limiting their admittedly good efficiency (7th).
This is a NBA Cup game, and Portland has a real shot a making a run. They’ll look to run this up and not let off the gas.
Pick: Trail Blazers -9.5 (-115)
Deni Avdija Over 23.5 Points
I project Deni Avdija at 25 points tonight, and there are two key areas why. First, the Kings’ transition defense, which allows the third-most possessions per game in an area you need to limit to slow teams from higher-efficiency shots, and they give up the second-highest scoring efficiency.
The Kings are a blood geyser in transition defense. Avdija leads the Blazers in transition points per game at 5.5, getting to the line on 25% of all transition possessions this season.
The Kings sink the rim consistently and over-help on drives, leaving the middle of the floor open. They are a bottom-three team in shots allowed in the paint outside the restricted area.
Avdija specifically shoots well there, taking the most shots on the Blazers from that location and making 50 percent of them.
Deni scored 26 last time out against Sacramento, and I’d expect another high-usage game for him here with Ja Morant out for this one as opposed to the first matchup.
Pick: Deni Avdija Over 23.5 Points (-114)
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Thunder vs. Clippers
Clippers Team Total Under 108.5
In 18 NBA Cup games for Oklahoma City, the Thunder have held opponents under their team total in 13, with eight by double digits.
The best way to run it up in NBA Cup play is to go all out defensively and not let the opponent score, and by God, the Thunder do that.
Yes, OKC has lost a ton of defensive talent to injuries. Guess what? They are still ranked first in that category. That’s how good they are systemically on defense.
The Thunder will continue to pursue the cup, hold the Clippers down, and get this number below the mark.
Based on last year’s numbers when the Clippers had, you know, a much better team, I had them projected at 107 points in this matchup. With a worse offense now, I have them projected at 104 points for tonight's game.
I’ll back the trend and take OKC to hold the Clippers under their team total tonight.
Pick: Clippers Team Total Under 107.5 (-105)
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