The NBA Cup continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Friday, November 13.
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NBA Best Bets for Friday, November 13
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Pacers
Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
I swore I was never going to take another Jalen Brunson points prop this season after starting 0-2 on him, but I am officially breaking that promise and betting on him to score over 24.5 points tonight against the Pacers.
Brunson has admittedly been a bit inconsistent scoring the ball this season, but he still always steps up whenever the Knicks need him the most, and his absolute floor has still been 19 points.
More importantly, he has really turned a corner lately, logging recent games of 27, 23, 31, and 33 points. The two games where he absolutely crushed the number were against the Bulls, scoring 33 and 38 points in fast-paced environments.
In fact, Brunson has played exceptionally well against all teams that rank in the top 10 in pace, hanging 28 points on the Magic and 24 on the 76ers. Tonight, he draws a matchup against a Pacers squad that also plays at a top 10 pace.
Over their last few games, Indiana has allowed a ton of pull-up opportunities from both beyond the arc and the mid-range—the exact areas where Brunson excels.
While Indiana's personnel changes, namely acquiring Ivica Zubac, are significant, it fundamentally means they are playing a lot more drop coverage.
Brunson knows exactly how to tear apart a drop defense. Even when the Pacers throw Aaron Nesmith or Andrew Nembhard at him, it hasn't worked long-term. Last season against Indiana, he dropped 29, 40, and 25 points in tight games.
Additionally, there have been recent coaching comments suggesting Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart aren't entirely secure in their heavy rotation roles, leading to more minutes for Landry Shamet and Miles McBride.
Those guys spread the floor significantly better, which opens up the paint and the mid-range for Brunson because defenders can't sag off them.
In an NBA Cup game where the Knicks will want to try to run up the score for point differential if they can, Brunson is in a smash spot.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points (-118)
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Bucks vs. Magic
Bucks +9
By Matt Moore
I tried so hard to get away from this bet, but the numbers forced my hand into taking the Bucks +9.5.
The Magic simply cannot be favored by double digits against anyone right now. I don't care that Jalen Suggs is popping up as questionable on the injury report; this Magic team has looked incredibly rough and has no business laying this kind of number.
The scheduling spot is tricky, as both teams are playing on the back end of a 3-in-4 (three games in four nights) with the Bucks traveling. However, my research actually shows that home teams tend to struggle a bit more on 3-in-4s than road teams do.
Even factoring in the travel, my model only makes this spread Magic -6 points. If I isolate strictly the in-season data for this year—which highlights exactly how bad Orlando has been offensively—the line drops all the way down to 4.5.
Getting 9.5 points provides the second-biggest spread edge on my entire board tonight. The Magic might come out and completely eradicate Milwaukee, which is why I am keeping this as a one-star play, but the value is far too great to ignore.
I couldn't stay away from it, so I am going to play the Bucks plus the points and inevitably be mad when they get blown out by a bad Orlando team.
Pick: Bucks +9 (-110)
Nate Ament Over 9.5 Points
By Jim Turvey
Nate Ament earned his first career start in the Bucks' last game, and I don't see any logical reason why the coaching staff wouldn't keep running that lineup out there.
Ament only played 22 minutes in that contest, but that was mainly because he lost his entire fourth-quarter rotation due to a blowout. Assuming this game stays more competitive, I am projecting him for around 27 minutes of action tonight.
Even against the Magic, 27 minutes of run should easily have him landing around 11.5 points, alongside 4.5 rebounds and assists. Typically, if a bet relies heavily on minutes, I prefer to default to the PRA, but this 7.5-point line is just too low of a bar for a starting player seeing high-20s minutes.
Ament's usage was admittedly a little bit lower in his first start, which might be why this points prop is popping as artificially suppressed. However, I am not going to overreact to one single game's worth of usage data, especially since the starting lineup doesn't feature overwhelming usage hogs, even with Tyler Herro taking a lot of shots and Jaime Jaquez doing well off the bench in their respective roles.
Overall, there should be plenty of offensive volume available for Ament here. I think he is being overlooked by the market right now following his promotion to the starting unit. So, I'll back him to score over 9.5 points tonight.
Pick: Nate Ament Over 9.5 Points (+102)
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Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Pelicans +2.5
By Matt Moore
I am holding my nose and taking the Pelicans +3.5 tonight, and honestly, I'm still wondering how I got here.
The Grizzlies got off to such a great start early on, and it felt awesome, but they have completely cooled off. They have lost four of their last five games and failed to cover the spread in four of those five. Their one victory in that stretch came against a banged-up Raptors team.
Notably, the Grizzlies just lost to and failed to cover against this exact same Pelicans team at home. Now we shift to a road environment, and the line has only adjusted by a point and a half, which frankly means it's sitting a little bit light.
Structurally, Memphis is really struggling with opposing size right now when Zach Edey is not on the floor. Isaiah Stewart has been playing a lot on the perimeter for them, and while he's been great offensively, he hasn't been nearly as impactful on the defensive end when they shift into switch coverages. The Grizzlies have a lot of weak points defensively right now.
On the other side, my metrics scream that New Orleans sucks. But then I sit down and watch them play, and I realize they actually have some decent stuff going on. They aren't making a full stew, but they are cooking down some vegetables and making some stock. There is some seasoning there; it is not completely bland.
The Pelicans have plenty of size, and they can use that to keep up and attack those weak points in the Memphis defense.
My numbers only make this game Grizzlies -1.5. When you factor in the scheduling spot and everything else surrounding this matchup, taking the 3.5 points is solid value. God help me, I am backing the Pelicans to cover.
Pick: Pelicans +2.5 (-108)
Ty Jerome Over 22.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
Ty Jerome has been an absolute dog this season, putting together awesome performances with consistent volume, and this is a pristine matchup for him to capitalize on. The Pelicans are currently playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league, which should lead to plenty of opportunities and extra possessions.
Defensively, New Orleans is a complete sieve in the paint, they are terrible at defending the three-ball, and they are allowing a ton of free-throw attempts. The Pelicans have been very weak against pick-and-roll ball handlers, in transition, and in isolation—all areas where Jerome excels.
If you look at the track record of opposing guards facing this Pelicans defense, the results are staggering. Egor Demin doubled his points prop against them despite stinking right now. Keon Ellis, who is not even a natural scorer, cruised over his line. De'Anthony Melton dropped 25 points in 21 minutes on a 27.5 line before getting hurt. Brandin Podziemski, Kris Dunn, and Darius Garland have all crushed their points lines against New Orleans.
Because this is an NBA Cup game, I think there is a real opportunity for Jerome to play a ton of minutes tonight. The Pelicans have shown almost no resistance to perimeter scorers pulling up in their face, and Jerome has been exceptional in those exact spots.
I fully expect Jerome to take advantage of the fast-paced environment and poor perimeter defense to fill it up tonight. I would play this at 23.5 too if the line bumps.
Pick: Ty Jerome Over 22.5 Points (-112)
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Hawks vs. Bulls
Matas Buzelis Blocks Escalator
By Jim Turvey
I am diving into a pretty obscure, but fascinating, prop tonight: a Matas Buzelis blocks escalator.
The news dropped that Caleb Wilson is going to be out for a month, which means Buzelis is going to slide back to the power forward position. Moving back to the four puts him in a significantly better role to provide weak-side rim protection.
Right now, his block rate is sitting at a mere 1.9 percent for the season, a huge drop-off compared to 4.3 percent last year and 4.5 percent during his rookie campaign. There is no reason for that rate to have plummeted so drastically other than a slightly slow start and playing out of position.
With Buzelis sliding back to his natural spot, we should see some positive regression. Last year, he recorded at least one block in 54 of his 77 games, swatted two or more in 36 games, and even racked up three or more blocks in 18 games.
Right now, the market is offering an implied probability of about 12 percent on him getting three-plus blocks, but he hit that exact mark in 23.4 percent of his games last season. Theoretically, he should be getting more minutes this year anyway, and Wilson's absence should lead to more usage for him.
The final piece of this puzzle is the matchup: the Hawks get blocked at the sixth-highest rate of any team in the NBA this season.
Add all of these factors together, and the math supports climbing the ladder. I am playing him for one, two, three, and maybe even sprinkling a little on four blocks.
Pick: Matas Buzelis 1+ Blocks (-249) | 2+ Blocks (+176) | 3+ Blocks (+563) | 4+ Blocks (+1500)
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Cavaliers vs. Heat
Cavaliers +2.5
By Matt Moore
Based on how the market has priced both teams’ games this season, the correct price with a 2.5-point home-court advantage for Miami (with Miami nightlife plus two days’ rest for the Heat) should be Heat -1.2.
That’s before we consider that the Heat are 2-9 ATS this season with an average ATS margin of -7.8 per Killersports.com.
So right away, this line is incorrect. I project this inside of a point using preseason-built power ratings adjusted for injuries and in-season performance. Based solely on in-season performance, I make this line Cavs -6.7, which is aggressive, but it shows you how bad the Heat have been.
No Evan Mobley for the Cavs, which hurts, along with Sam Merrill. But Pelle Larson and Klay Thompson are questionable, and they need all the help they can get.
The Heat defense hasn’t been physical enough to play to its strengths, and the Cavaliers should be able to get threes up against Miami, which allows the most above-the-break threes in the league.
With Jarrett Allen back, the Cavs have an interior threat to punish switches with lobs, and athletes to keep up with Miami’s style. Giannis will get his, but it won’t be enough.
I’ve sworn off the Cavs like six times this season, but it’s worth seeing if Miami can actually put together an impressive game for what would honestly be the first time this season.
Pick: Cavaliers +2.5 (-110)
Davion Mitchell Over 14.5 Points
By Matt Moore
The news that Evan Mobley is out definitely helps this play, as it significantly increases Davion Mitchell's ability to get to the rim and bumps up his overall offensive volume.
But the biggest differential in this handicap comes down to transition defense. According to Synergy Sports, the Cavaliers currently rank as the seventh-worst team in the NBA in points per game allowed in transition. What does Miami love to do more than anything? They like to get out and run.
I genuinely like Miami's chances in this spot to hang with a Cleveland team that has been drastically inconsistent from game to game. The spread is currently sitting at 2.5, but I actually make it under 2. While I have a tiny mathematical edge on the Cavs, I fully expect this to be a tightly contested, back-and-forth affair.
When a game stays close into the fourth quarter, it becomes Davion Mitchell time. That is the point in the game where everybody else is tired, and Mitchell puts his head down to push the tempo and win the game.
Between the transition angles against a vulnerable Cleveland defense and the heavy late-game usage in a tight contest, Mitchell should find plenty of avenues to rack up points. He thrives when he can get downhill against tired legs, and missing Mobley's rim protection only amplifies that advantage.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 14.5 Points (-112)
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Jazz vs. Rockets
Over 219.5
By Matt Moore
The Jazz have been an under team this season, with a surprising number of games where they've held opponents under their team totals. But Utah has had just one game with a total south of 220 this season, which easily went over.
The Jazz's totals have been based on better projected offense along with worse defense. But Houston is legitimately good offensively this season, with the fourth-best offense against the third-toughest strength of schedule of defenses, per DunksAndThrees.com.
This is a NBA Cup game, and the Rockets need to win and win by a lot to give themselves a chance.
The Rockets will also probably take it pretty easy with Utah, who is missing Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson, and Jusuf Nurkic. Houston will smash them on the glass for putbacks.
The Jazz's pace is actually slower without Markkanen on the floor, which is a concern, but I still think this number is simply too great of an adjustment. Even with their bad offense this year, I still make this total 219.5 based only on in-season numbers.
Pick: Over 219.5 (-114)
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Warriors vs. Spurs
Warriors +11.5
By Matt Moore
I get it. Steph Curry is Steph Curry, and Steph Curry is out. But even when Curry has been amazing in previous years, the Warriors haven’t been able to compete and they are competing right now.
How about this? Without Steph Curry on the floor this season, the Warriors are still +3.2 in net rating. That’s huge. They have someone to score and rebound in Yaxel Lendenborg, and Draymond Green has been great at staying physical with Victor Wembanyama.
The Warriors take a ton of threes, so they don’t need the interior as much with Wemby roaming, and they create second-chance points with long rebounds.
San Antonio’s better, San Antonio’s great. But the Spurs are favored by too many points against a Warriors team that has been legitimately good this season.
Pick: Warriors +11.5 (-110)
Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
Victor Wembanyama burned me in the first quarter of his last game, only scoring six points, but I'm not worried—he still cruised over his full-game prop of 29.5 by finishing with 32.
It simply hasn't mattered if the Spurs are winning by 15 or playing in a tight battle; Wemby is staying on the floor and racking up huge scoring numbers.
We saw this exact same nonsense last season when he desperately wanted to win Defensive Player of the Year, staying in games to compile stats and build a unanimous narrative.
This year, the MVP conversation is starting early because Luka Doncic is putting up absurd numbers, and Wemby knows he needs his offensive stats to pop to stay in that race.
Against the Kings in a 15-point blowout, he played 26 minutes and scored 30 points. He dropped 32 points in 32 minutes against the Bulls, and then hung 40 points in just 25 minutes against the Suns. Wemby is getting out there and going for it.
The biggest shift is that he is just dunking on everybody without a care in the world. While the Warriors have been decent at defending the rim this season, a lot of their tracking numbers are slightly skewed.
Steph Curry isn't playing, and Draymond Green is likely going to play like crap—that’s just how it goes with Draymond sometimes. I have no idea who on that roster is going to cover him.
Over the last two seasons, Wembanyama's absolute floor against Golden State is 25 points, including a massive 41-point ceiling game in just 29 minutes. He is going to put up a huge number regardless of the final score.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 27.5 Points (-125)
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Trail Blazers vs. Kings
Trail Blazers -9.5
By Matt Moore
The Kings covered their first matchup against the Blazers in Sacramento by 1.5 points in a weird game where the Kings started off red hot and led by double digits, lost almost the entire lead by halftime, and then got destroyed in the second half, trailing by as many as 14.
I’m not convinced this is the same spot. Domantas Sabonis had 27-19-10 in that game. Now he’s barely even playing, basically a ghost for the Kings. They know the deal, and the deal is to get Darius Acuff Jr. as many shots as he can muster.
The Kings are literally the worst pick-and-roll defensive team in the league, according to Synergy Sports, and the Blazers rank first in that category offensively.
There’s also a massive size advantage for the Blazers down low with Donovan Clingan, who should control offensive rebounds and make things difficult in the paint for a team that already has problems creating shots at the rim (27th) while limiting their admittedly good efficiency (7th).
This is a NBA Cup game, and Portland has a real shot at making making a run. They’ll look to run this up and not let off the gas.
Pick: Trail Blazers -9.5 (-115)
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Thunder vs. Clippers
Clippers Team Total Under 108.5
By Matt Moore
In 18 NBA Cup games for Oklahoma City, the Thunder have held opponents under their team total in 13, with eight by double digits.
The best way to run it up in NBA Cup play is to go all out defensively and not let the opponent score, and by God, the Thunder do that.
Yes, OKC has lost a ton of defensive talent to injuries. Guess what? They are still ranked first in that category. That’s how good they are systemically on defense.
The Thunder will continue to pursue the cup, hold the Clippers down, and get this number below the mark.
Based on last year’s numbers when the Clippers had, you know, a much better team, I had them projected at 107 points in this matchup. With a worse offense now, I have them projected at 104 points for tonight's game.
I’ll back the trend and take OKC to hold the Clippers under their team total tonight.
Pick: Clippers Team Total Under 107.5 (-105)
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