LeBron James Player Props | Prediction, Projection for Lakers vs. Warriors

LeBron James Player Props | Prediction, Projection for Lakers vs. Warriors article feature image
Credit:

Via Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James #6 of the Los Angeles Lakers dribbles the ball during Round 1 Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies on APRIL 22, 2023 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

Lakers vs. Warriors Odds

Lakers+4.5
Warriors-4.5
Total 227.5
DateTuesday, May 2
Time10:00 p.m. ET
TVTNT

*Odds via BetMGM as of Tuesday afternoon.

The storylines have all been written.

Everybody is talking about Stephen Curry and LeBron James going head-to-head in the NBA Playoffs once again. It will be fascinating, no doubt, but what can we expect from each player as the series gets going on Tuesday night?

Our algorithm has identified an edge on a LeBron James player prop at BetMGM tonight. The prognostication isn't expecting much from the King during Game 1.

In fact, it's a bet on the under.

Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.

Lebron James Player Prop Prediction, Projection

The algorithms expect James to fall short of his expected point total.

The models think James' total point total for Game 1 is way too high. BetMGM has set the total for points tonight at 26.5 with -115 on both sides. That is the best price on the under in the market.

Although 26.5 points may seem low on the surface, James only eclipsed that mark once during the series against the Grizzlies, and that was in the Game 2 loss. He averaged just 22.2 points during that series.

Furthermore, James scored just 13 points in the Lakers' last game against the Warriors back in March.

The model predicts James will score 23.29 points tonight. That's good enough for a 20% betting edge on the under.

Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.

Pick:  LeBron James Under 26.5 Points (-115)

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 25, 2024 UTC