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The NBA season-long player prop markets offer some of the most fascinating ways to attack the board before the regular season tips off. Instead of just betting straight team win totals, you can find value by predicting shifting team dynamics, isolating usage rates, and capitalizing on players stepping into new situations.
Let's get into our favorite season-long NBA player prop predictions and picks for this year.
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NBA Player Futures, Season-Long Prop Bets
Anthony Edwards Scoring Leader
By Matt Moore
My favorite play on the board is Anthony Edwards to be the Regular Season Scoring Leader at +950.
Ant's comments in the preseason were very straightforward: he hates dealing with double teams, and he hates having to bring the ball up, initiate the offense, and score against the toughest defender every single night.
The Timberwolves' offensive design with LaMelo Ball in the mix is going to be incredibly isolation-heavy.
The theory is that LaMelo draws defenders and gets Ant open. The reality is that teams won't leave Ant open; they will just play him one-on-one.
It is going to be a lot of "your turn, my turn" offense. LaMelo will get downhill, kick it to Ant, and Ant will take a step-back three. Honestly, it's horrible offense. But from a prop perspective? It should be a goldmine.
Ant's assists are going to drop, his defense and rebounding will tick up, and he is going to score in massive volume because he has to do less setup work.
Luka Doncic is the heavy favorite in this market for a reason, but the value on Edwards is far too intriguing to pass up.
Pick: Anthony Edwards Regular Season Scoring Leader (+950)
Anthony Edwards 30+ Points Per Game
By Joe Dellera
I am fully in on the Anthony Edwards scoring leap as well. I am backing him to average 30+ points per game at +210, and I completely agree with Matt on the Scoring Leader sprinkle at +950.
The thing with Ant is that he has actually improved his scoring output every single season. He averaged 28.8 points last year, he is getting deeper in his bag, and he has become far more aggressive at getting to the free-throw line. We've seen him consistently improve the three-ball as well.
Averaging 30+ points is just a natural line of growth for him at this stage of his career — and when you pair him with LaMelo Ball, Edwards is simply going to need to score more as the Wolves continue to try and balance out the presence of Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels.
If Luka Doncic misses any time or takes his foot off the gas slightly, Ant should have plenty runway to cash both of these tickets.
Pick: Anthony Edwards to Average 30+ PPG (+210) / Sprinkle Regular Season Scoring Leader (+950)
Jayson Tatum First Team All-NBA
By Matt Moore
I am backing Jayson Tatum to make First Team All-NBA at 3-1.
I like betting decision trees because that is exactly how my brain works. I get that the top of the league is crowded right now. You have the "Big Five" of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But if you don't think Tatum gets this spot, you have to assume all five of those guys stay perfectly healthy and hit the 65-game threshold, which is highly unlikely.
If any one of those top five guys misses the games-played mark, Tatum is next in line. It is very unlikely that the Celtics go over their win total of 50 games in a tough Eastern Conference without Jayson Tatum capturing an All-NBA First Team slot.
This is excellent value on a guy who is perpetually right in the thick of this conversation.
Pick: Jayson Tatum to Make First Team All-NBA (+300)
Jaylen Brown / Jayson Tatum Head-to-Head Prop
I am taking Jaylen Brown to average within 5.5 points per game of Jayson Tatum this season.
Look, I still don't know what to make of the 76ers. You could basically rinse and repeat that sentence for Joel Embiid's entire career, but it is especially true this year.
I don't expect Brown to average the 28.7 points he put up as an MVP candidate in Boston last year, but I absolutely expect him to score at a high volume in Philly.
Let's be serious: Joel Embiid is probably going to miss time. LeBron James is probably going to miss time. There are going to be plenty of nights where the Sixers' offense is just Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and V.J. Edgecombe.
Maxey isn't a selfish player, and Edgecombe isn't a high-usage black hole at this stage of his career. Brown is going to have plenty of room to operate with a massive chip on his shoulder — and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he sits around 25 or 26 points per game.
On the flip side, I don't think taking Brown off the Celtics means Tatum suddenly skyrockets to 30 points a game. Payton Pritchard is ready to make a jump. They have high-level secondary scoring options in Paul George and Derrick White who still command touches, as well as young guys like Hugo Gonzalez.
The Celtics likely have too many mouths to feed for Tatum to outscore Brown by a full six points.
Pick: Jaylen Brown (+5.5) to Average Within 5.5 PPG of Jayson Tatum (-125)
Cam Johnson 3-Point Prop
By Joe Dellera
Cam Johnson actually cleared this number last season, but we saw a very specific spike in his production post-All-Star break that the market hasn't fully adjusted for. Before the All-Star break, he averaged 1.9 threes on just 4.3 attempts. Post-break, that jumped to 2.2 makes on 5.3 attempts.
It takes time for guys to learn how to gel with Nikola Jokic in Denver. We saw Johnson really start to develop that instinctive rapport as the season went on. He is figuring out that he needs a faster trigger in this offense.
The Nuggets added DeMar DeRozan to operate in the mid-range and interior, which should organically open up even more space on the perimeter for Johnson.
The Nuggets desperately need his spacing, so Johnson's minutes floor should be secure — and the only time in his entire career he failed to average two threes a game was his rookie season.
Pick: Cam Johnson 2+ Threes Made Per Game (-130)
Cooper Flagg Rebounding Prop
By Joe Dellera
Honestly, this line feels completely out of whack. Cooper Flagg averaged 6.7 rebounds over the course of his entire rookie season, including 6.9 post-All-Star break.
Flagg has reportedly grown over the offseason, and he is going to be sharing the court for a massive chunk of minutes with Kyrie Irving—who is not exactly a notable rebounder.
Following the departure of Anthony Davis, there is an absolute vacuum of rebounding opportunity available in Dallas.
Flagg is simply too aggressive on the glass to suffer a statistical downturn from his rookie campaign. Even if the Mavericks are bad, the minutes are almost guaranteed, so the floor for his rebounding production should remain high.
I'll back Flagg to average 6+ rebounds per game at -150.
Pick: Cooper Flagg 6+ Rebounds Per Game (-150)
Darius Acuff Scoring Props
I am taking a stab at Darius Acuff to average 20+ points per game at +270.
I just think this entire Kings team is going to be built around letting Acuff do whatever he wants this season.
I don't know how long Zach LaVine is going to be there, I don't know how long Domantas Sabonis will be active, and we know Ben Simmons is not going to take a ton of shots away from high-usage guys.
People are rightfully worried about whether Acuff's style is conducive to winning, but you don't need to worry about that. We are talking about the Sacramento Kings; they are going to suck again.
This is purely a volume play. Acuff is going to have a ridiculous amount of usage and opportunities to fire away. Even if he only shoots 40% from the floor and 33% from deep, the sheer volume of attempts should get him into the 20-point neighborhood.
Only a handful of rookies since Tyreke Evans have cleared 20 points per game, but Acuff has the ultimate green light on a bad team.
Picks: Darius Acuff to Average 20+ PPG (+270) / to Make First Team All-Rookie
Other NBA Futures Articles
- Moore's 10 Win Total Over/Under Picks
- MVP Picks
- 6 NBA Division Winner Picks
- Our 6 Picks to Make/Miss the Playoffs
- Sixth Man of the Year Picks
- Clutch Player of the Year Picks
- Rookie of the Year Picks
- Coach of the Year Picks
- Most Improved Player Picks
