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The NBA playoffs and seeding markets offer some of the most fascinating ways to attack the futures board before the regular season tips off. Instead of just betting straight win totals, you can find massive value in alternate lines, division finishes, and teams either making or missing the postseason entirely.
Let's get into our NBA playoffs predictions and picks for this season.
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NBA Playoffs & Seeding Predictions, Picks
Los Angeles Lakers to Miss the Playoffs (+310)
By Matt Moore
I am getting back to my roots and fading the major markets. I want the Lakers under their win total, but the best way to play the extreme outcome is for them to miss the playoffs entirely at +310.
I am simultaneously taking Luka Doncic for MVP, because this season either goes incredibly well or it falls apart completely.
I just do not see it with this roster's defensive construct. Walker Kessler is a great rim protector, but he is not a lob threat. More importantly, a backcourt of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves is an untenable defensive combination unless you surround them with three elite defenders.
Instead, the Lakers are completely dependent on minimum-contract guys like Matisse Thybulle and Ziaire Williams, or Quentin Grimes, who isn't a true primary perimeter stopper.
The Lakers will probably start hot, but by January, Luka will likely check out defensively. This team has a rickety floor, and I have them projected at just 38 wins.
If I'm wrong about the under, I am all the way wrong, but the value on them missing the dance is too good to pass up.
Lakers Futures Bets
- Lakers to Miss the Playoffs (+310)
- Lakers Under 45.5 Wins / Lakers Under 40 Wins
- Luka Doncic to Win MVP (+550)
Charlotte Hornets to Miss the Playoffs (-110)
By Joe Dellera
This is a scary fade because the Hornets had the worst difference between expected wins and actual wins on Cleaning the Glass last year, meaning they theoretically should have won even more games. However, I have big concerns.
Losing LaMelo Ball is a monumental blow; last year he was a +9.9 in point differential and a +11.6 on offense, putting him in the 99th percentile. You lose that optionality for guys like Brandon Miller and Coby White to play off of. To make matters worse, Miller, White, and Kon Knueppel are all dealing with injuries right now.
Things could go sideways very quickly for a team missing its best offensive engine. To miss the playoffs entirely is sitting around -110, and I think that's the best way to fade a roster that could easily bottom out if the injury bug bites early.
Hornets Futures Bets
- Hornets to Miss the Playoffs (-110)
- Hornets Over 10.5 Seeding
Utah Jazz to Make the Playoffs (+165)
By Jim Turvey
I am fully buying the Jazz this season. We saw flashes where they literally had to try to lose games last year. Now, they are putting their foot on the gas with a really solid starting five: Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson (or Ace Bailey), Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic.
Jaren Jackson was great in his 55 minutes playing alongside Markkanen and Keyonte, posting a +16.8 net rating.
The Jazz have the second-best home-court advantage in the NBA, and the market is already sniffing this out, moving their win total from 34.5 to 38.5.
We have completely lost the floor on Utah. At +165 to make the playoffs, you are getting excellent value on a team that is finally trying to win games.
Jazz Futures Bets
- Jazz to Make the Playoffs (+165)
- Jazz Alternate Over 44.5 Wins (+450)
New Orleans Pelicans 35+ Wins (+350)
By Matt Moore
I am officially lining up to kick the football like Charlie Brown again. I have all overs on the Pelicans, and I think the best way to play them is through alternate win totals.
It really comes down to Jamahl Mosley.
Mosley went into Orlando and took an unstructured team and gave them a definitive defensive identity. Now he comes into New Orleans with a mandate to stop the embarrassment. If you don't perform, you get yanked.
Even if the Pelicans trade Trey Murphy, the return will be significant. The Zion Williamson and Derik Queen fit can easily work if you run DHO (dribble hand-off) action with Queen passing to a full-speed Zion coming around the corner.
I also loved Dejounte Murray's leadership last season, and my composite model had Saddiq Bey's contract undervalued by $6 million.
Teams in this win-total band go under 64% of the time historically, so if you are going to back New Orleans, play the extreme alternate angles.
Pelicans Futures Bets
- Pelicans Alt 35+ Wins (+350)
- Pelicans Alt 40+ Wins (+850)
- Pelicans Alt 45+ Wins (+1800)
Miami Heat Over 5.5 Seed
By Joe Dellera
I've got the Heat finishing as the 6th seed or lower this season. The East is just really solid top-to-bottom right now with teams like Detroit, Boston, the Knicks, Sixers, Cavs, and Raptors all fighting for positioning.
Miami has a lot of moving pieces to integrate, most notably Giannis Antetokounmpo.
I don't think Erik Spoelstra is going to care about pushing their regular-season win total; his primary concern will be managing Giannis' health and figuring out lineup fits for the postseason.
The Heat will almost certainly make the playoffs or the play-in tournament, but I don't see them being a regular-season juggernaut.
I think fading Miami to land outside the top five seeds is the smartest way to play this situation.
Pick: Heat Over 5.5 Seed
Cleveland Cavaliers: 1-Seed in East (+900)
By Jim Turvey
The Cavaliers left a bad taste in our mouths from the last time we saw them, but they are a remarkably good regular-season team.
Cleveland's big four posted a +25.2 net rating in the 80 minutes they played together last year, and Jarrett Allen looked elite playing alongside James Harden.
Peyton Watson provides a nice upgrade at the fifth starter spot, and their depth is versatile—if Allen is out, Evan Mobley easily slides to center with Watson stepping in.
The Cavs' regular-season floor is very high. With the Sixers integrating new pieces and the Knicks dealing with a championship hangover, the door is wide open at the top of the conference.
Grabbing Cleveland at 9-1 to secure the 1-seed in the East is a fantastic upside swing.
Cavaliers Futures Bets
- Cavaliers Over 47.5 Wins (-128)
- Cavaliers 1-Seed in the East (+900)
Other NBA Futures Articles
- Moore's 10 Win Total Over/Under Picks
- 6 NBA Division Winner Picks
- MVP Picks
- Sixth Man of the Year Picks
- Clutch Player of the Year Picks
- Rookie of the Year Picks
- Coach of the Year Picks
- Most Improved Player Picks
