Mavericks vs. Warriors Single Game Parlay & Picks: 3 Bets for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (May 18)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks handles the ball against Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds
|Moneyline||+190 / -230|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Mavericks look to rely on their stingy defense to pull off the upset in the series opener. They are an elite defensive team fresh off a Game 7 victory where they held the Phoenix Suns to 24% shooting from the floor in the first half of Game 7 while getting out to a 30-point lead. They kept up the pressure all game holding the desperate Suns to 37.9% shooting from the floor.
Not to be overshadowed on the defensive end, the Warriors have also played great lockdown ball aided by strong home court play. They have been stellar at home this postseason in both series matchups, holding the Nuggets to 103.6 points per game on their home court in the opening series, and most recently the Grizzlies to an average of 102 points.
From a betting perspective, we will rely on both squads to come out with that same kind of defensive intensity and count on a low scoring matchup. Our single game parlay wager will be reflective of defensive plays we look to cash big in the opening game of the Western Conference Final. Let’s parlay some bets for Game 1.
First Quarter Total Points Under 53.5 (-110)
Let’s break this stat down a little bit further and stay confident with our read on points being at a premium. Both teams have been prone to slow starts ranking 16th and 19th respectively in the regular season in first quarter points per game.
Only once last series with the Grizzlies did the Warriors get out to a hot start scoring 30 points early. Taking the average of their first quarter points, not including that Game 6 performance, they are averaging 24.2 first quarter points early
The Mavericks were able to find some success early, but still refrained from lighting it up. On the defensive side, they held the Phoenix Suns to 17 first quarter points in Game 7 and in their last five games held Phoenix to 20, 25, 23, 25, and 17. Don’t expect a hot start here from either side.
Mavericks Team Total Under 104.5 (-106)
The Mavericks ranked dead last in the regular season in possessions per game at 98.1. Looking at the league as a whole, that number is almost seven possessions per game lower than the top five teams. They were also last in Pace of play and 29th in field goal attempts per game at 84.6. If the shots aren’t falling or the Mavs get into a hole early, we may be looking at a one-sided contest especially early on.
Factoring the Mavs’ stats as a whole going up against a Warriors defense allowing the fifth-fewest points per game at 105, we lean towards betting the under. For the Warriors, they are coming off a series where they held the high-scoring Memphis Grizzlies under 100 points in two of their last three contests.
Although Memphis was without Ja Morant for the final three games, this is an impressive feat which we expect to continue.
Kevon Looney Over 6.5 Rebounds (-118)
With low scoring games there usually comes a lot of misses and attempts at big rebounding stats. The Warriors were a great rebounding team all season averaging 53.3 per game.
They are coming off a Game 6 performance logging 70 total including 25 on the offensive end. Instead of focusing on rebounding as a whole, let’s hone in on one player who looks to once again be in for a big night stuffing the stats sheet.
Kevon Looney is an obvious selection to continue his great rebounding numbers off his 22 board performance in Game 6. He was active on both sides of the floor logging just as many offensive rebounds (11) as he did defensive.
Although this number is inflated due to a big uptick in playing time and getting a starting spot, he’s had a lot of success versus the Mavericks this season in their prior few contests logging nine or more boards in three straight in the head-to-head.
The Warriors seem likely to start Looney once again assuming Dallas continues to start opposing big Dwight Powell. Considering Looney’s impact early in the first quarter last game, this looks like a great bet taking the Over.
Parlay: 1Q Total Under 53.5 + Mavericks Under 104.5 Points + Kevon Looney Over 6.5 Rebounds (+427)