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NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 1 (May 18)

NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Best Bets for Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 1 (May 18) article feature image
Credit:

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Klay Thompson (front) and Jordan Poole (rear) of the Golden State Warriors.

  • The Western Conference Finals begin tonight and our staff has several best bets.
  • Our analysts have targeted a pair of player props and also make a pick against the spread.
  • Check out the picks and breakdowns below.

The Dallas Mavericks have become the darlings of the NBA Playoffs after two intense series against the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns. Meanwhile the Golden State Warriors have been giving flashes of their dynasty days with new characters in the mix.

The two teams will converge at Chase Center in San Fransisco for Game 1 of the Western Conference finals and our NBA analysts have a few favorite bets ahead of the series opener. You can find their favorite bets on the spread and two player props below.

NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Klay Thompson Player Prop
Luka Doncic Player Prop
Warriors Spread

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors

Pick
Klay Thompson Under 28.5 PTS + REB + AST
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
9 p.m. ET
TV
TNT

Joe Dellera: This number is a bit high for a guy who primarily relies on his shooting to cross this threshold. The Mavericks do an excellent job of limiting their opponents’ shooting percentages and posted the fourth-best regular season mark for allowed effective 3-point percentage on the sixth-fewest attempts in terms of percentage on the season. Additionally, Dallas was sixth best at defending shots in the midrange.

This does not align well with Klay Thompson’s game. He takes 50% of his shots from 3-point range and 40% are from midrange, so the Mavericks can defend his shot profile well — we just saw them excel in those areas against both the Jazz and the Suns.

Thompson has hit this line in just three of his 11 playoff games this season in about 30 minutes per game. If we extend this out throughout the regular season when Thompson has played at least 30 minutes he averages 29.7 PRA but this is buoyed by explosive performances every so often.

He still has only cleared this line in 10-of-26 games with 30-plus minutes and with him likely being tasked with defending Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie with the potential to switch onto Doncic, foul trouble could be a concern to limit his minutes and opportunities.

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Pick
Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Rebounds
Book
FanDuel

Tyler Schmidt: The Cinderella Dallas Mavericks find themselves in the Western Conference finals after knocking off the best team in the NBA the Phoenix Suns. The Mavericks won both of their series on the road as they beat the Suns in four of their last five games. They beat the Warriors in three of four during the season.

The one player I trust fully on the Mavericks is, without a doubt, Luka Doncic. He led the league in Usage Rate during the regular season and leads all players in the playoffs in Usage Rate as well at over 40%. That will help him quite a bit on the offensive end, but I also love his total rebounds prop at the 9.5 line.

Doncic has gotten the over in three-straight games and in seven of his 10 playoff games. If the Mavericks want any chance not only in this game, but in this series, Doncic will need to do it on both ends of the floor. They rank last in rebounding percentage in the playoffs, so Doncic needs to hit the glass hard.

Our model has Doncic projected for 10.6 rebounds, which is comfortably over this prop line. The Warriors are a solid rebounding team, but Doncic has averaged 15 rebounding chances per game during the playoffs. A solid increase from his 14.1 rebound per game chances during the season. Lock in this rebound prop.


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Pick
Warriors -4.5
Book
BetMGM

Brandon Anderson: The Warriors have long made a habit of getting off to a great start in postseason series.

Since the start of the 2015 playoffs — the first title run with this core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green — the Warriors are an incredible 20-2 in Game 1s. The only losses came in 2016 to the Thunder and in 2019 to the Raptors, both times with key star injuries.

The Warriors are only 12-10 ATS in those Game 1s, but that number leaps to 8-2 ATS as a single-digit home favorite, covering by an average of 6.4 PPG. Most of the non-covers came either as an underdog or as a monster favorite.

The fact is that Golden State is a unique offense and maybe the toughest in the league to adjust to. The Warriors kill you with back cuts and precise passing, and the constant off-ball movement and relocation after the shot are impossible to defend at times. Over the course of a series, good defenses tend to adjust to some of those things, but it’s part of what makes the Warriors so good early in series.

The Mavericks are coming off a seven-game series against an extremely different offense and now hit the road with limited rest and preparation. Golden State had the second best home record in the league too. I’m expecting the Warriors to get on the board quickly with a Game 1 statement win.


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