The Miami Heat (4-3) and Denver Nuggets (4-2) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Nuggets are 9.5-point favorites on the spread (Nuggets -9.5), with the over/under set at 241.5 total points. Denver is a -400 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +310 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 5.
My Heat vs Nuggets Prediction
- Heat vs Nuggets pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
My Heat vs Nuggets best bet is on Jaime Jaquez over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Nuggets Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 241.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 241.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
Heat vs Nuggets NBA Preview
It's the third game in four games for the Heat. It's also the last of a four-game road trip, which began Thursday.
This feels like a big opportunity for the Nuggets, and the scoring correlates with two overs I like in this game on the prop side.
Injury-wise, we expect all the Nuggets to play, and only Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier are declared out for the Heat.
First-round pick Kasparas Jakucionis has been upgraded to questionable with a groin injury he's been dealing with for weeks, having last seen him in preseason on October 12.
He may make his season debut, but it's not a given.
Heat vs Nuggets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The first over I like is Jaime Jaquez over 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
I'm undeterred from being burned by this last time.
He shot 3-for-9 and 0-for-2 from three while being outplayed by Pelle Larsson in Norman Powell's first game back.
Even so, he got to 17 PRA. He's at 20 plus in his other six appearances — which were consecutive.
The Heat are No. 1 in pace, accumulating eight more possessions per 48 minutes than they did last year.
Jaquez is essentially running the bench while averaging about 17-7-5 on 60 percent shooting with a career-best 20.8 usage, in just under 30 minutes per contest.
He has the best on/off on the team at plus 42.2 per 100 possessions, so you know he'll play significantly, and he hasn't gotten back-to-back unders yet.
So I'll run it back, and if it flops, I'll move on.
As a note, if just the points have a better number, go with that instead.
Denver allows the fourth-fewest boards and fifth-fewest assists per 100 possessions.
I still like the PRA because of the opportunities and everything else laid out earlier, but consider shopping around to see if the points alone actually provide more value.
Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115, bet365)
Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple Double
Otherwise, and this one is a lean, but I like Nikola Jokic to get a triple-double or to exceed 22.5 rebounds plus assists, whichever has better value.
The Heat are third in defense, but this isn't a Jokic-proof team.
He's the only guy that Bam Adebayo can't guard. Ivica Zubac and Karl-Anthony Towns each had 18 rebounds against Miami, and Jokic could replicate that given the extra possessions we expect.
The assists coincide with the points, and Jokic has 10 or more in all but one game this year.
Lean: Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple Double (+110, bet365)
Spread
I'm not betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
I will also be staying away from the moneyline.
Over/Under
My Nuggets vs Heat betting prediction is on Jaime Jaquez over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists.
Nuggets vs Heat Betting Trends
