The Miami Heat (14-8) and Orlando Magic (13-9) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EST from the Kia Center in Orlando, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Magic are 5.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Magic -5.5), with the over/under set at 241.5 total points. Orlando is a -210 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +175 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks for Friday, December 5.
My Heat vs Magic Prediction
- Heat vs Magic picks: Heat +5.5 (-110), Under 241.5 (-110)
My Magic vs Heat best bets are on Miami to cover the spread and the under, with the best price tags currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Magic Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 241.5 -110 / -110 | +175 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 241.5 -110 / -110 | -210 |
Heat vs Magic NBA Preview
This total is nuts.
This is literally the second time in Jamahl Mosley’s career with Orlando that the total has been above 240 (if you are curious, the previous time went under by 18.5 points against the Pacers in 2023).
I get the idea. Both teams rank highly in transition rate — with Miami ranking 1st and the Magic ranking 6th.
The Magic offense has been flames lately, going over their team total in eight of their last twelve games.
Since Desmond Bane’s game-winner back on November 10, the over is 8-4 in Magic games. They’ve been red hot.
But the average total in those games was 230, and even in that span, when the total was above 235, the under is 2-1.
The Heat, meanwhile, have had a total above 240 already eight times this season thanks to their blistering pace.
But while the over is 4-3-1 in those games, the opponent team total is just 3-5 to the over.
This is the secret with Miami: Yes, they are fast. Yes, they don’t set screens and just get shots up.
However, the Heat' offense isn’t actually their strength. They use their offense to tire you out for their elite halfcourt defense (ranked 2nd).
With Tyler Herro (questionable against Orlando) in the lineup, the under is 3-2 and the Heat are -3.2 points on average against their team total.
On the flip side, Orlando is likely getting Paolo Banchero back (upgraded to questionable) from a month-long injury.
This is the kind of move that bumps up a team’s projected team total in the market because of Banchero’s talent and reputation as a scorer.
But even setting aside his inefficiency issues, when a team brings back a high-usage player who has been out while the team found its stride, there are often hiccups and struggles offensively.
Heat vs Magic Prediction, Betting Analysis
I make the total for this game 236.5.
Yes, it will be fast. But it will be a fast, defensive game between two division opponents.
I also like the Heat here on the spread.
Erik Spoelstra is 7-4 ATS against Jamahl Mosley since he took over the Magic job.
The best unit on the floor in this game is the Miami defense.
I stopped fading Orlando after their hot streak continued, but it was broken by the Spurs in a game that went under the total by 9.5 points.
I just needed to feel like I dodged the falling knife, and the Spurs did that for me.
I also love fading teams adding in those pieces like Banchero on the spread.
When Banchero came back last season, the Magic were only 1.5-point favorites against the woeful 76ers. They won and covered, and then went on to lose and fail to cover five straight.
They were also without Franz Wagner and didn’t have Desmond Bane.
However, the spot is enough for me to like Miami. I make this line Magic -2.5, showing plenty of value on the Heat at +5.5.
Heat vs Magic Best Bets
- Heat +5.5 (-110)
- Under 241.5 (-110)
Spread
My Magic vs Heat betting prediction is on Miami to cover the spread at +5.5.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I will also be taking the under at 241.5 total points.
Magic vs Heat Betting Trends
