The NBA playoffs resume with a pair of Game 2s today, Thursday, May 7 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for both of tonight's matchups: Cavaliers vs. Pistons and Lakers vs. Thunder.
Continue below for our NBA best bets,player prop escalators, and series futures for James Harden, Marcus Smart, and more.
NBA Best Bets, Player Prop Escalators for Thursday, May 7
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Player Prop Escalators
Donovan Mitchell Points Escalator
I was worried about Donovan Mitchell after the first round. He looked miserable—I honestly wondered if it was a conditioning issue or if he was just playing hurt. He couldn't get open, and he looked gassed. But Game 1 against Detroit? He looked like a completely different human.
Even though he only finished with 23 points on 9-of-19 shooting, the box score doesn’t tell the full story. If you watched that game, you saw the joy back in his basketball body. He was dancing, moving, and attacking late.
The key here is the scheme. Toronto junked everything up with double-teams and long wings; Detroit is an honest defense. The Pistons think they can beat you straight up, and in the playoffs, that is exactly when Mitchell destroys you.
I’m not interested in playing the median outcome of 24.5 points. When Mitchell goes off, he goes OFF. We are playing the escalator at FanDuel:
- 30+ Points (+255)
- 35+ Points (+630)
- 40+ Points (+1500)
He’s averaging 29.3 PPG against Detroit this season. If he has one 37-point explosion tonight, that season average is right back to 30. I also love Game 2 Points Leader (+234 at DraftKings)—Cade Cunningham's efficiency is still struggling, so Mitchell could take this at 25 or 40.
If you want to really get into the ROI jungle, look at the series markets at DraftKings: 28 PPG (+500) and 30 PPG (+1100) are massive values. He’s cleared 28 PPG in three of his last six series. Let’s ride the escalator.
Jalen Duren Rebounds Escalator / Blocks Leader
Quite frankly, Jalen Duren looked like a different human in Game 1 compared to the previous series. I was down on him after watching him struggle against the Magic for seven games, but this is a different matchup, and Duren finally looks like himself again.
Now, look, the first three minutes of Game 1 were terrifying. I’m tuned in to watch every single rebound—my eyes just follow one guy around the court—and he had major alligator-arms early. He had five rebounds go off his hands in the first three minutes alone.
But here is the thing: Duren finished with 12 rebounds on 31 rebounding chances. That is an outrageous number of opportunities. Even though he only grabbed 12, the fact that he was in position for 31 tells me the process is elite.
The contested vs. uncontested data is where the value lies. He was 8-of-12 on contested rebounds—great, you’re the biggest dude out there, go get them. But he was only 4-of-19 on uncontested chances. I’m not going to pretend I know exactly why that happened, but 4-of-19 screams positive regression. The ball is going to bounce his way more often in Game 2.
Duren also grabbed seven offensive boards and is averaging six OREBs over his last four playoff games.
I actually like it better when Jarrett Allen is on the floor because it keeps Duren closer to the hoop instead of chasing Evan Mobley or a smaller body out near the three-point line.
The line moved from 10.5 to 11.5, so we lost a little edge, but we are playing the Rebound Escalator anyway:
While we’re at it, let’s talk about the Series Blocks Leader. This is a wonky market, but Duren is +850 at bet365 to lead the series.
He had two huge swats in Game 1 and has recorded 2, 3, 1, and 2 blocks in his four games against Cleveland this season.
Mobley is the rightful favorite, but Allen isn't blocking anything right now, and Ausar Thompson’s rim protection numbers have dipped against the Cavs compared to the Magic series.
At +850, you just want a guy who is in the mix, and Duren is absolutely in the mix.
James Harden Assists Futures
I’m looking at another series-long angle here, and it’s James Harden Series Assist Leader (+375 at bet365).
Harden was an aggressive scorer in Game 1—lots of floaters and nine free-throw attempts—but those seven turnovers were just bad. You can't do that.
However, the passing opportunities were exactly what we wanted to see.
Harden finished with seven assists, tying Cunningham for the game high, but the potential assists tell the real story: Harden had 14 to Cade’s 11. And remember, three of Cade's assists (and three of those potentials) came in that final two-minute stretch when Cleveland had already collapsed and he was just tossing dunks to Duren.
For the actual duration of the game, Harden was nearly doubling Cade up in chances despite playing fewer minutes.
Harden has played Detroit four times this season and recorded exactly seven assists in every single one of them. He averaged 7.7 assists per game with the Cavs in the regular season.
I’m skipping the Game 3 over/under of 6.5 and going straight for the series crown. The longer this goes, the more I like it.
Historically, in Games 6 and 7, Harden’s scoring drops while his assists spike. Conversely, Cade’s assists tend to dip in losses, and the Pistons currently lead 1-0, so we'll need some Cavs' wins to extend the series.
Brandon Anderson's Cavaliers vs Pistons Best Bets
- Donovan Mitchell Points Escalator
- Jalen Duren Rebounds Escalator / Blocks Leader
- James Harden Assists Futures
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Lakers vs. Thunder Player Prop Escalators
Marcus Smart Over 16.5 PRA / Three-Pointers Escalator
I’m taking Marcus Smart Over 16.5 PRA (-115 at bet365) as my primary look for Game 2. I know, I know—firing on a Marcus Smart prop feels a little desperate, but the guy has been the Lakers' postseason MVP so far.
Smart is the "irrational confidence" guy the Lakers need in a series like this. He steps on the floor thinking he’s the best player out there, and in the playoffs, that volume translates to production.
Even with Austin Reaves back, Smart’s minutes haven't budged. He’s averaging 23.7 PRA in these playoffs, and even in the Reaves-split, he’s still at 18.6.
We’re getting a line of 16.5—that’s a gift. His floor has been 15 PRA, so you're basically one bucket away from cashing the baseline.
I'm also playing the Marcus Smart Three-Pointer Escalator.
The Thunder's defense is designed to let the guys they want to shoot take the shots, and Smart is the answer to that question. He hoisted eight attempts in Game 1.
Smart is hitting 41% of his threes in the postseason, so if the volume is there, the makes will follow.
I’m skipping the juiced 1.5 median and heading to BetMGM for the escalators:
- 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+230)
- 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+550)
In 17 games this year with 7+ attempts, he’s hit three or more in 71% of them. If OKC sticks to the script and dares Smart to beat them, we’re going to be there to collect.
Brandon Anderson's Lakers vs Thunder Best Bets
- Marcus Smart Over 16.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
- Marcus Smart Three-Pointers Escalator
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