NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Heat vs. Celtics, Trail Blazers vs. Thunder, More (January 31)
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: CJ McCollum #3 and Anfernee Simons #1 of the Portland Trail Blazers.
- Monday's NBA slate features eight games and our experts have found four bets with value for tonight's action.
- They're making picks on Grizzlies-76ers, Heat-Celtics and Trail Blazers-Thunder.
- Check out their betting breakdowns and picks below.
Sports fans are likely still buzzing from Sunday’s NFL championship games, but Monday’s NBA slate should take center stage for bettors. With eight games on the slate, our NBA analysts are eyeing three games and have four picks for tonight’s action.
Read below for their game analysis and best bets for Monday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Raheem Palmer: The Memphis Grizzlies have had the number of the Philadelphia 76ers recently, winning three straight games with none of the last two games being particularly close. Joel Embiid didn’t play in those games, and he won’t play in this one tonight, according to our FantasyLabs news page.
The Grizzlies rank second in defending at the rim, allowing just 61.4% which should go along way towards slowing down the Sixers’ offense.
The Grizzlies are also the top Offensive Rebounding team in the league (31.6%) facing a 76ers team that ranks just 20th in Defensive Rebounding (26.6%) so this Grizzlies team could see some extra possessions. The biggest key for this matchup is the Grizzlies’ transition offense, which ranks fourth in points per possession (3.8) facing off against this 76ers defense that is just 22nd (3.0 points per possession).
Although the Grizzlies struggle in the half court, the edge in transition in a regular season game is huge. In addition, the Grizzlies are the far deeper team particularly against this 76ers team that hasn’t had Ben Simmons all season in addition to injuries to Furkan Korkmaz and Shake Milton.
My model makes this closer to a pick’em with both teams at full strength, but with Embiid being ruled out and the line shifting, I’ll take the Grizzlies up to -4.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Roberto Arguello: I broke this game down in greater detail here.
The Celtics are favored against a Heat team that will likely be down two starters with Kyle Lowry already ruled out and Butler (questionable – ankle) unlikely to play after logging 52 minutes in Saturday’s triple overtime loss.
However, I like the value on the Heat to pull the upset. With the Heat’s available roster, they will take a higher volume of 3s than normal, and this means there will be variance.
The Heat have consistently made their shots from the perimeter this season, and just about all of their shooters have been hot. Duncan Robinson is coming off of a poor 0-of-5 night on 3s on Saturday, but after starting the season in a slump (by his standards), he is shooting 41% on 3s over the last 25 games (since Dec. 3).
Robinson also played just 20 minutes against the Raptors, so he will be one of the fresher Heat players, and I also like the value on him to go over his scoring props.
If Butler is out, the Heat still have the ammunition defensively to bother Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown with the likes of Caleb Martin, PJ Tucker and Bam Adebayo, and the Celtics are too flawed of an offensive team to lay the points against a Heat defense that is still solid.
The Celtics don’t have the ability to withstand unspectacular nights from Tatum and Brown given their overall lack of floor spacing, ball movement, and other reliable decision makers.
Take the Heat at +4.5 on the spread and +155 on the moneyline with value down to +120.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Joe Dellera: The Heat continue to be without Kyle Lowry as Roberto noted and he leaves a significant absence. Lowry is a top-level playmaker, and he has consistently been on the floor for the Heat this season, but they miss his 23.4% Usage Rate when he is out.
One of the players I expect to step up in his absence is Bam Adebayo. This season, Adebayo has seen a downtick in his assists, from 5.4 and 5.1 in the two prior seasons to just 3.6 this season. With Lowry out, I expect Bam to take a larger role as a playmaker.
Looking at Bam’s assist numbers over the past two seasons without Lowry, he has cleared 4.5 assists in 40 of 70 games, and three of his last five. He has averaged 5.2 assists per game over those 70 games. Tonight I’ll back Adebayo to find spot up shooters and cutters as he mans the post against the Celtics.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Brandon Anderson: Did you miss the news over the weekend?
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s season is over. The other 29 teams will continue to play out their 82-game season. OKC is done. They have forfeited their remaining games.
Fine, maybe that’s an overreaction and the Thunder will still win a game or three the rest of the year. But with the news that Oklahoma City has shut down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for “a few weeks,” it’s tough to escape a strong sense of Deja Vu that it’s last season all over again. The Thunder started out last season well enough, SGA was a little too good for their potential draft pick, and OKC shut it down and was miserable and barely watchable late in the season.
It’s not like Portland is a real joy without Damian Lillard either. But this is still a team that’s trying, and with CJ McCollum back now and Anfernee Simons breaking out a bit, the Blazers at least have a decent starting five and that should be enough against the Thunder, road game and no Dame or not.
I’m ready to fade the tanking Thunder into oblivion. Give me the Blazers. I’ll play to -5.
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