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NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets (April 28)

NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets (April 28) article feature image
Credit:

Via Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (#77) and Jalen Brunson (#13).

  • With a trio of NBA playoff games on the slate, there are plenty of betting opportunities.
  • Which lines offer the most value tonight in the NBA?
  • The Action Network's NBA staff breaks down its six favorite plays below.

With three pivotal Game 6s on Thursday night, our Action Network NBA analysts have identified six best bets that they love.

They have their eyes on three prop plays, two spread bets and one team total.

Check out their picks and analysis below.

NBA Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
76ers vs. Raptors Player Prop
7 p.m. ET
76ers vs. Raptors Player Prop
7 p.m. ET
76ers vs. Raptors Spread & Series
7 p.m. ET
Suns vs. Pelicans Player Prop
7:30 p.m. ET
Mavericks vs. Jazz Moneyline
10 p.m. ET
Mavericks vs. Jazz Team Total
10 p.m. ET

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors

Pick
Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Turnovers (-130)
Book
BetMGM
Tipoff
7 p.m. ET
TV
NBA TV

Joe Dellera: Joel Embiid’s thumb injury is significant and clearly bothering the MVP Candidate. I covered this game in general here, but this is a prop angle I want to focus on. He has struggled offensively and defensively to control the basketball.

Now, the Raptors know this is an issue, and they are double teaming him on everything. Embiid has historically struggled against increased pressure, and with the thumb injury, I question his ability to efficiently pass the basketball.

In Game 1, he did not have any turnovers; however, since then he has recorded four, six, five, and four turnovers. This has lead to a spike in his Turnover Percentage. During the regular season Embiid’s TOV% was just 11.5%, but in this series, it has increased to 16.5%, and since the torn ligament diagnosis, it’s settled above 20%.

His prop line is set at 3.5 turnovers (-130), and this is simply too low. He’s gone over this line in 47% of games this season, but that does not account for his increase in minutes during the Playoffs. He has played 37 or more minutes in every game this series and is averaging 39.6 minutes. When Embiid has played 37+ minutes over the last two seasons, he’s gone over this line in 20 of 29 games (69%). Nice.

With -130 odds, the implied probability is 56.52%, and given the injury, the minutes uptick, and the Raptors’ consistent double teams, there’s an actionable edge at this spot.


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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors

Pick
Pascal Siakam Over 5.5 Assists (-118)
Book
FanDuel

Brandon Anderson: Fred VanVleet is doubtful for Game 6, and that means Toronto will need a little, or maybe a lot, more from its stars. Pascal Siakam is this team’s brightest star these days anyway, and he’s been the guy to step up the most when FVV has been sidelined this season.

Siakam had 23 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists in the Game 5 win without VanVleet. He played 15 games without him during the regular season. During those games, he averaged 24.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists — and obviously he’ll play even more minutes in an even bigger role in another potential elimination game, especially coming off an extra day of rest.

Unfortunately, the books have moved Siakam’s lines up to account for the boost, meaning there’s not a ton of value on his points or rebounds, but his assists line still presents real value. Siakam had 15 Potential Assists last game. His teammates converted on seven of those, and that’s pretty close to a typical outcome since around half of Potential Assists often become actual helpers.

With anything close to 15 Potential Assists, we’ll be in great shape to get to six and hit this over. Siakam went over 5.5 assists in 10 of 15 regular season games without VanVleet, a 67% hit rate. This line is a full assist too low. And actually, I will also play over 6.5 assists at +165 at Bet365. That’s a huge bonus in payout for just one more assist, and he has at least seven dimes in nine of 16 games without FVV now, including Game 4.

I’ll go one step further. Siakam is +1600 at Bet365 to record a triple-double. That’s a steep ask in an elimination game, but it’s in range. Remember, he was only three assists short in Game 5. He did have a triple-double without FVV in the regular season, and just like Game 5, he was three total rebounds or assists away from a triple-double five more times.

Add in the extra minutes, and we’ll have a shot. And if he hits those numbers, the Raptors will too.

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors

Pick
Raptors +1.5 | Raptors Win Series (+485)
Book
BetMGM

Raheem Palmer: I played the Philadelphia 76ers -184 to win the series, and while I felt comfortable up 3-0 with it being a death sentence for teams facing such a deficit, I no longer feel safe in this spot.

If there’s anyone who can choke away a 3-0 lead, it’s Glenn Rivers and James Harden; this feels like a great opportunity to take a shot on history. The big issue here is that Joel Embiid is playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, and over the past two games, he’s averaging 20 points on 45% shooting from the field while going 0-for-5 from 3-point range.

If Embiid can’t be Embiid, this team is in trouble, particularly with the way Harden is playing as his recent ratios of shots made to field goal attempts look more like tour dates than shooting nights we’d expect from an All-Star player.

It’s clear that Harden has reached what I like to call #LarryHolmesStatus when a star player is past his prime. Throughout this series, Harden is averaging just 18.4 points per game on 37.3% shooting. He no longer has the burst to get to the rim consistently, and with the Raptors’ length on the wing, the 76ers are in a tough spot with two stars who can’t carry a team the way they used to.

In addition, Harden and Embiid are turnover prone players which fuels a Raptors offense that generates much of its offense in transition.

The injury to Fred VanVleet that forced him out of Game 4 and kept him out of Game 5 might have been a blessing in disguise as he was having an abysmal series, averaging 13.8 points per game on just 35.2% shooting.

His injury has also forced even more length on the floor, and it’s clear that for much of the last three games, Pascal Siakam has been the best player in the series.

I personally took a shot on the Raptors to win the series at +590, but I think you’re safe playing them at here in this spot to win Game 6 at +1.5.


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Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Pick
CJ McCollum Over 5.5 Rebounds (+120)
Book
FanDuel
Tipoff
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
TNT

Matt Moore: McCollum has gone over 5.5 rebounds in five of the last six games while averaging 7.4 rebounds per game. McCollum is crashing the glass as Suns wings are out of position due to their focus on the other Pelicans shooters on offense and getting back in transition on defense.

This is up from 4.5, but I still like the over at 5.5 with the plus money. His low in this series is 4, so if you want, you can take an adjusted line, but I’m comfortable with over 5.5 at +120 or better.


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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz

Pick
Mavericks Moneyline (-108)
Book
BetRivers
Tipoff
10 p.m. ET
TV
TNT

Matt Moore: Road teams in Game 6 are 53% ATS. Road favorites are 31-9 (71%). The Mavs aren’t favored after the line moved following news Donovan Mitchell would play. However, as I consider Mitchell a negative to the Jazz defense, especially on a bad leg, I feel confident the Mavs should be favored in this spot.

Regardless of that trend, Dallas has been the better team since Game 1 of this series. They have figured Utah out, and once that happens, the Jazz tend to fall apart quickly. The only reason the series is still going is a game-winning lob to Rudy Gobert from Donovan Mitchell and foul trouble for Maxi Kleber.

Doncic is back and healthier, while the Jazz are frayed and searching for answers. I don’t think they’ll find them, and at a plus number or pick ’em (anything below -110), there’s good value here.


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Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz

Pick
Jazz Team Total Under 104.5
Book
PointsBet

Brandon Anderson: The Jazz had the No. 1 Offensive Rating in the regular season, but that offense is nowhere to be found in the Playoffs.

Credit the Dallas defense. The Mavs have been terrific defending the 3-point line all season, and that’s Utah’s bread and butter. The Jazz took and made the second-most 3s in the NBA but haven’t been able to do either this series. Utah shot 3-for-30 on 3s last game, the worst 3-point shooting on that volume in 25 years in the Playoffs. Three makes and 10% accuracy is a problem, but so is only 30 attempts. Utah just isn’t getting its preferred shots up.

That puts a lot of the offense on Donovan Mitchell, and he’s had his moments but hasn’t been enough, especially with Bojan Bogdanovic slowing down and Mike Conley looking mostly washed. Now Mitchell is hurt too. Even if he plays, he’s playing through double bruised quads, and it’s hard to see his usual athleticism popping. He scored only nine points on 4-of-15 shooting last game.

The pace has slowed way down in this series with the return of Luka Doncic, and unders have been hitting. The total keeps dropping, so rather than playing the game under, I’ll play just Utah’s. The Jazz have gone under this line in four of five games this series. They probably won’t hit 77 again like last game, but there’s little reason to think the Jazz will find any magical answers offensively when they haven’t the last five games.

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