Bucks vs. Wizards Betting Odds & Pick (Tuesday, August 11): Bank on a Shootout
Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Bledsoe #6 of the Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks vs. Wizards Betting Odds
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|Bucks odds||-9 [BET NOW]|
|Wizards odds||+9 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-400/+310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||229.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
The Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards are playing in a game that has zero NBA impact besides on your bankroll. How will these teams handle today’s matchup?
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Monday’s game against the Raptors and he’s questionable for tonight’s game against the Wizards. The Bucks don’t have anyone else listed on the injury report at the time of this writing, but Wesley Matthews did seem to injure his groin during the game.
The Bucks have not been very good in the bubble, they have a -0.9 Net Rating, per NBA.com, and they have been able to go on runs offensively, but their defense has struggled in the bubble. It feels like the only time the defense has shown up is the fourth quarter against the Heat last week.
The Wizards are an unsurprising 0-6 in the bubble. Tonight Shabazz Napier is listed as questionable with an ankle injury that held him out of the Wizard’s last game. If he is held out look for an uptick in usage for Troy Brown, Jerian Grant, and Jerome Robinson.
One thing the Wizards have been good at this season is ball security. Per Cleaning the Glass, they rank in the top 10 for turnovers on both sides of the basketball. This allows them to initiate fast break opportunities and attack opponents before they can set up on defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think this will be a high-scoring affair. Per NBA.com, both teams play at a pace over 101. The fewest points the Bucks have given up in the bubble is 112 and they’ve averaged 119.5 points against. The Wizards have averaged 116.7 points against.
Additionally, the Bucks give up the third most 3-point shots in the league (percentage of shots), and although the Wizards don’t take 3-point shots that often, they have the 10th best 3-point percentage in the league. On the other hand, the Bucks take the fourth-highest percentage of their shots from behind the arc and the Wizards give up the ninth-most.
The Bucks and the Wizards both like to run, and they are top-10 teams in the league at getting out in transition. In the bubble, they are both top-five teams in terms of fast break points. The Bucks have given up the most fast break points to opponents, and the Wizards have given up the sixth most.
If everyone plays for the Bucks, I think this is a track meet and these teams blow past the over. If Giannis sits, the Bucks’ pace increases but their Offensive Rating dips a bit.
I think this over is actionable if just Giannis sits, but if the Bucks sit the majority of their starters, I would look at the over for the Wizards’ team total, which should land somewhere around 110 when it posts at BETMGM.
The PICK: Over 229.5