The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-15) and Boston Celtics (47-24) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
The Thunder are 2.5-point favorites over the Celtics on the spread (Thunder -2.5), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -142 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Boston is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 25.
Thunder vs Celtics Prediction, Pick
- Thunder vs Celtics picks: Thunder -2.5 (-105), Over 218 (-115)
My Celtics vs. Thunder best bets are on Oklahoma City to cover the spread and the game to go over 218 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Thunder vs Celtics Odds
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 218.5 -105o / -115u | -142 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 218.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
Thunder vs Celtics NBA Preview
The Celtics are a great team. They have a legitimate chance of winning the NBA title. However, they cannot be only three-point home underdogs to the Thunder.
The line for this game based on market ratings with a standard 2.5-point homecourt advantage is Thunder -4 via Inpredictable.com. So, right off the bat, we are setting the bar low.
The gap between these two teams is 3.9 points per 100 possessions, schedule-adjusted, at DunksAndThrees.com — which would give the Celtics a slight edge vs. the number with Boston homecourt.
However, I make the spread for this game Thunder -5 — and I’m a lot more comfortable with that number.
The reality is that the Thunder have the defensive wings to disrupt Boston’s offense, which is also in a bit of a shaky place.
Since Jayson Tatum’s return, the Celtics’ offense has just a 114 offensive rating in his minutes.
The Celtics are still trying to figure out how to play with Tatum — and the Thunder's defense is highly disruptive to wing-centric offenses because of the depth of their perimeter defenders.
Boston is having a great season, but hasn’t beaten great teams. The Celtics are 6-14 SU vs. teams with a top-10 point differential per CleaningTheGlass.com, with a 28th-ranked spread differential of -3.3.
The Celtics have struggled when they face teams in their weight class, which makes sense. Their combination of player development and coaching to maximize efficiency gives them a huge edge vs. the rank and file teams — but the best squads tend to get the better of them, and Oklahoma City gets the better of everyone.
Now, the Thunder own an even worse spread record vs. those top teams; -4.9 spread differential, 29th in the league. However, this number is already showing a great deal of faith in the Celtics.
The Thunder are fully healthy and have more versatility now thanks to Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain.
They remain elite at shutting off the rim, and while Boston does take a lot of threes and the Thunder give up a high amount, Boston isn't quite as good at converting them this season — currently ranked 13th in 3-point percentage.
Thunder vs Celtics Predictions, Betting Analysis
Thunder -2.5
The Celtics almost never turn the ball over, and neither do the Thunder. Oklahoma City is an elite turnover-creating defense; Boston is not.
The Thunder will likely be able to create more turnovers for easy scores than Boston will be able to in this game.
The Celtics are solid and up for the challenge — but Oklahoma City is simply too good.
I trust my rating that puts this spread closer to Thunder -5.
Boston is great, but nobody is as good as the Thunder. I’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City tonight.
Over 218
Two elite defenses get together, which means the offense will game-plan more.
I project this total slightly above the number at 218.9.
The pace scares me; Boston ranks dead last in pace this season — but the efficiency from both teams should be high.
I’ll trust shooters to make shots for at least one of these teams, which should be enough to send this game Over the low total.
Thunder vs Celtics Best Bets
- Thunder -2.5 (-105)
- Over 218 (-115)
