Friday NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Dec. 13): Bucks vs. Grizzlies Angle With Giannis Set to Play

Friday NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Dec. 13): Bucks vs. Grizzlies Angle With Giannis Set to Play article feature image
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Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khris Middleton

  • Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo will officially play on Friday night against the Memphis Grizzlies after initially being questionable. After Giannis was announced as probable, the betting odds for the game shifted from Bucks -10 to Bucks -12.
  • What's the best way to bet Bucks-Grizzlies that Giannis will play?
  • Our NBA expert Bryan Mears analyzes the latest odds for the entire Friday night NBA slate to pick out some best bets.

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 1-0 for +0.25 units. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

  • I bet Mavs -6.5 and it closed at Mavs -6.5 (won)

Sometimes your intros just write themselves.

Status note: Andre Drummond (eye) a game-time decision Thursday. Had an allergic reaction to an avocado.

— FantasyLabs NBA (@FantasyLabsNBA) December 13, 2019

Just a reminder that the NBA is the best.

Betting-wise, I ended up taking the Mavs in this neutral court game once it moved off -7 prior to game time. It had already moved up quite a bit throughout the day and I thought most of the value was gone, but getting it a -6.5 still provided a bit of value.

Anyway, we have a huge slate today, so let's dive in and find some angles.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

  • Overall: 129-112-1
  • Spreads: 47-46-1
  • Totals: 39-38
  • Moneylines: 9-6
  • Props: 29-22

Jump To:Odds & Analysis | Projected Starting Lineups & Injury NewsPlayer Props | DFS Values & Strategy | My Bets


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Betting Odds and Analysis

  • 7 p.m. ET: Houston Rockets (-6) at Orlando Magic, 221
  • 7 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers (-8), 222.5
  • 7 p.m. ET: LA Lakers (-5.5) at Miami Heat, 212
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers (-6) at Atlanta Hawks, 224.5
  • 8 p.m. ET: Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls (-6), 214
  • 8 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks (-10) at Memphis Grizzlies, 228
  • 9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (-13.5), 210.5
  • 9:30 p.m. ET: LA Clippers (-5.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 230
  • 10 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings (-8.5), 209.5

Let's run through a couple angles I'm eyeing.

Pacers at Hawks

There were such high hopes for the Hawks entering the season. Trae Young's second year. A building chemistry with big John Collins. New draft additions in De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. A smart front office and coaching staff built around a modern game and modern players.

But now, the Hawks sit 6-19 with a -9.7 point differential, a mark only behind the Knicks and Warriors for the worst in the league. They're 24th on offense and 29th on defense.

The season didn't start out absolutely terribly. They won their first two games of the year against fellow hopeful playoff East teams in the Pistons and Magic. After six games they were a respectable 3-3 with losses to the Heat twice and Sixers. But then in that final Miami game they lost John Collins. A few days later, against the Kings, they allowed a 131.7 Defensive Rating.

Since then, things have gone off the rails. Since that Kings game on Nov. 8, they've gone 3-15 with a league-worst -11.9 point differential. They haven't been good offensively with a 22-ranked 108.1 efficiency mark, although it's not vomit-inducing bad. Their defense has been, however, which in that time frame has allowed 120.1 points per 100 possessions, easily the worst mark in the league. For reference, the Cavs last year had the worst defense, allowing 117.7; the Hawks are nearly 3.0/100 points worse, which is astounding.

And it's hard to blame things on poor luck outside of injuries. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks have an expected eFG% rank (based on shot location and other factors) of 27th. They're allowing a ton of shots at the rim, and while they've done OK defending there, they've been egregious everywhere else. Hunter might be the only positive defender on the team, and even that's debatable considering he's a rookie prone to mistakes.

In their last two games, the Hawks have allowed 135 and 136 points to the Heat and Bulls, respectively, who aren't exactly offensive powerhouses. They've been especially bad in transition, where they've allowed easy opportunities the fifth-most in the league and have been the worst in efficiency on such possessions. If you want an easy shot, the Hawks will likely give you one.

There's also some reason for optimism for the Hawks offense moving forward. First, their offensive profile is good, which is why they have an expected eFG% rank of eighth. They're actually 22nd, and they're likely going to have a discrepancy all season long given the guys taking shots. But even those players struggling — Cam Reddish and Jabari Parker, to name a few key ones — are not terrible shooters and should likely regress.

Further, the Hawks continue to ramp up minutes for Kevin Huerter, who missed 11 games in November but has gotten up around 25 minutes in each of his last three games and is now starting again. He's their second-best shooter outside of Trae, and he showed a lot of potential as a catch-and-shoot option around Young's pick-and-rolls last year.

There have been two steam moves on the Hawks today and none on the Pacers, which means sharp bettors are somewhat bullish on Atlanta today, at least so far this morning. I would be hesitant to believe those bettors are bullish on the defense, so I'm taking that as a positive sign for the offense.

All of the factors listed above lead me to the over here, and I like it at anything below 224.

Bucks at Grizzlies

This line has moved from Bucks -11.5 to -9.5 since opening despite the Bucks receiving 82% of the bets (but only 72% of the money). There was a steam move on the Bucks at -9 but then a reverse line move on the Grizz at +11 to push things back down.

I'm guessing that's because Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable with a sore quad tendon that held him out of Wednesday's game. Note that the Bucks still won by nearly double-digits against the Magic even without their MVP.

I'll wait on the Giannis news, but if he plays I'll likely take the Bucks at single-digits here. The Grizzlies are dealing with quite a few injuries of their own: Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke and Grayson Allen are all out for this one.

Without any of those three guys on the court this year, in 392 possessions the Grizzlies have posted a -19.5 point differential, literally the 1st percentile of lineups this season.

Tonight's likely starting lineup — Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, Jae Crowder, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas — has posted an even-worse -21.1 mark in 95 possessions together.

Ja, Clarke, Jackson Jr. and Co. are exciting and should be good for years to come, but 1) they're still young and 2) this is not a deep team. The Bucks, however, are very deep. Their starting lineup has posted a +17.9 Net Rating, obviously an incredible mark, but even all lineups with Giannis on the floor have posted a +7.9 mark. This team is just really damn good.

Again, I'll wait on Giannis, but if he's playing I'll grab anything better than Bucks -10. And if he's out, I still like it, although I'll wait for it to move down to grab it at its lowest number.

Lakers at Heat

The Heat are dealing with a myriad of injuries today: Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow are out again, Tyler Herro is questionable with an illness and Dion Waiters has been suspended yet again, this time for six games.

They've had injury concerns all season, and somehow they haven't really missed a beat. In 513 possessions this season without Dragic, Winslow and Herro — three of their best players and two of their three best playmakers — the Heat have posted a Net Rating of +19.5! That's in the 99th percentile, which is absolutely ridiculous.

The starting lineup of Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Meyers Leonard and Bam Adebayo have posted a +18.2 Net Rating, notably holding opposing to offenses to just 92.9 points per 100 possessions. I mean, what's going on here?

Jimmy has been a monster, and the role players, many of whom weren't even known to casual NBA fans prior to the start of the season, have filled in brilliantly, particularly shooting the ball. Robinson is shooting 44.9% from 3 on seven attempts per game. Leonard is at 50.0%. Nunn and Herro have been above-average on high volume. It's incredible.

I could write about the same thing for every Heat game honestly. They are 14th in expected eFG% — middle of the pack — but are actually third. On defense, they're 25th in expected eFG% allowed but actually 12th. This has been one of the luckiest teams in terms of shooting I can remember seeing. Does that mean they should regress? Absolutely — but it doesn't mean it'll be tonight. They've sustained this play for two months now, so who knows when that inevitable shooting luck will come back to earth.

Let's take a different angle, though: Since Nov. 5, the Heat have played just a few actually good teams. Here's how those went…

  • 11/5 at Denver: 109-89 loss
  • 11/8 at Lakers: 95-80 loss
  • 11/23 at Philly: 113-86 loss
  • 11/27 at Houston: 117-108 loss
  • 12/3 at Toronto: 121-100 win
  • 12/4 at Boston: 112-93 loss

They've feasted so far this year on the league's worst and have struggled against the league's best. That said, most of those losses came on the road, and they're at home tonight. In Miami, they rank first in the league with a +16.9 Net Rating; they're a perfect 11-0 so far there. On the road, they're 20th with a -4.6 Net Rating and a 7-6 record. This is a muddled sample to say the least.

They also have pretty crazy ATS splits…

  • Overall: 15-8-1
  • As favorite: 11-3
  • As dog: 4-5-1
  • At home: 9-2
  • On road: 6-6-1

They've been a home dog just once, and they not only covered but won outright — although that was the infamous Houston game in which James Harden and the Rockets were in Miami for the weekend. Again, this is a weird team with weird data.

Some more weirdness, which I think will be an important factor tonight: The Heat have allowed the most 3-pointers in the league this season, but opponents have hit them at the second-worst rate. Perhaps that won't be a problem tonight against the Lakers, who are 27th in 3-point rate, but it definitely could be. Missing Kyle Kuzma will hurt in that regard, though.

The Heat have been better at deterring shots at the rim, although they're dead last in opponent shooting there. Being the worst rim protecting team in the league seems … not ideal against LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Two other sources of contention tonight will be with turnovers and transition. The Heat have coughed the ball up at the highest rate this year, which furthers just how impressive it is they've been so good offensively. If they have a game where they don't hit everything like they have but still cough it up, they're going to get run out of the gym.

The Heat have also allowed transition opportunities at the fourth-highest rate this year, and the Lakers have been pretty good in transition. The Heat have not run much themselves, instead opting for more halfcourt sets, but they'll have to battle against a Lakers defense that ranks fifth in the halfcourt and sixth overall.

On paper and by rosters, this shouldn't be much of a game. The Lakers have advantages everywhere, they get more efficient shots, they haven't benefited from luck and their roster is much more talented. But the Heat continue to defy the odds, especially at home, where they are tonight.

I currently don't have a bet tonight, although there's been sharp money on the under in this one (banking on Miami regression and the Lakers defense?). This will be a fascinating matchup to watch.

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 3:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

  • Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Kevin Huerter – De’Andre Hunter – Jabari Parker – Damian Jones
  • Charlotte Hornets: Devonte’ Graham – Terry Rozier – Miles Bridges – PJ Washington – Bismack Biyombo
  • Chicago Bulls: Kris Dunn – Zach LaVine – Tomas Satoransky – Lauri Markkanen – Wendell Carter Jr.
  • Golden State Warriors: D’Angelo Russell – Alec Burks – Glenn Robinson III – Kevon Looney – Willie Cauley-Stein
  • Houston Rockets: Russell Westbrook – James Harden – Danuel House – PJ Tucker – Clint Capela
  • Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Jeremy Lamb – TJ Warren – Domantas Sabonis – Myles Turner
  • LA Clippers: Terance Mann – Paul George – Kawhi Leonard – Maurice Harkless – Ivica Zubac
  • LA Lakers: LeBron James – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
  • Memphis Grizzlies: Tyus Jones – Dillon Brooks – Jae Crowder – Jaren Jackson Jr. – Jonas Valanciunas
  • Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler – Kendrick Nunn – Duncan Robinson – Bam Adebayo – Meyers Leonard
  • Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe – Wes Matthews – Khris Middleton – Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brook Lopez
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: Andrew Wiggins – Jarrett Culver – Josh Okogie – Robert Covington – Karl-Anthony Towns
  • New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday – JJ Redick – Brandon Ingram – Kenrich Williams – Derrick Favors
  • New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina – RJ Barrett – Marcus Morris – Julius Randle – Taj Gibson
  • Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz – Evan Fournier – Aaron Gordon – Jonathan Isaac – Khem Birch
  • Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons – Josh Richardson – Tobias Harris – Mike Scott – Joel Embiid
  • Sacramento Kings: Cory Joseph – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
  • Utah Jazz: Donovan Mitchell – Joe Ingles – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert

Injury News

  • Atlanta Hawks: Nothing new.
  • Charlotte Hornets: Marvin Williams (knee) is out. Nicolas Batum (hand) is doubtful. Malik Monk (finger) is probable.
  • Chicago Bulls: Chandler Hutchison (shoulder) is unlikely to play. Cristiano Felicio (wrist) is TBD. Denzel Valentine (ankle), Ryan Arcidiacono (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Wendell Carter Jr. (abdomen, tailbone, head) and Zach LaVine (shoulder) are probable.
  • Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green (rest) is out. Eric Paschall (hip) is out. Ky Bowman is in the G League.
  • Houston Rockets: Tyson Chandler (illness) is out. Austin Rivers (illness) is probable. Russell Westbrook (rest) will play Friday and likely rest Saturday.
  • Indiana Pacers: JaKarr Sampson (back) is questionable.
  • LA Clippers: Patrick Beverley (concussion) and Landry Shamet (ankle), Lou Williams (calf) and JaMychal Green (tailbone) are out. Rodney McGruder (hamstring) will play. Derrick Walton Jr. (hamstring) is not on the injury report.
  • LA Lakers: Kyle Kuzma (ankle) is out. Rajon Rondo (hamstring) and Anthony Davis (shoulder) are probable.
  • Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant (back), Brandon Clarke (oblique) and Grayson Allen (ankle) are out.
  • Miami Heat: Goran Dragic (groin) and Justise Winslow (back) remain out. Tyler Herro (illness) is questionable. Dion Waiters is suspended 6 games.
  • Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (quad) is questionable. Kyle Korver (back) is out.
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: Jake Layman (toe) is out. Jeff Teague (ankle) and Keita Bates-Diop (illness) are questionable.
  • New Orleans Pelicans: Derrick Favors (personal) is questionable.
  • New York Knicks: Wayne Ellington (Achilles) is out. Dennis Smith Jr. (illness) is probable. Allonzo Trier (concussion) is out at least 2 games.
  • Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz (illness) is questionable. Nikola Vucevic (ankle) is doubtful.
  • Philadelphia 76ers: Al Horford (knee, hamstring) is out.
  • Sacramento Kings: Cory Joseph (back) is probable.
  • Utah Jazz: Mike Conley (hamstring) is out.


Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders.

Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is Myles Turner's 6.5-rebound total.

I have no clue why books continue to list Turner's rebound prop this high. It could hit tonight certainly, but this should be more like 5.5/6 on a nightly basis. He's gone under 6.5 in each of his last 11 games.

Turner is one of the worst rebounding bigs in basketball, which might surprise the casual fan. I don't think he's actually bad — he's not great admittedly — but the Pacers just have so many good rebounders around him. Domantas Sabonis is a beast, and the wings and guards in TJ Warren and Malcolm Brogdon are all excellent for their positions.

Turner also plays outside in two-big sets often, which means he's very unlikely to grab offensive boards, which means he's really only in position half the possessions he's out there. He's playing a bad Atlanta team today, so again it could hit, but the sharp play is the under until they drop this prop.

DFS Values and Strategy

Tonight is a huge slate, and man are there are a ton of injuries. Of note, Draymond Green, Lou Williams, Kyle Kuzma, Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow, Mike Conley and Al Horford are already out. Further, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Vucevic, Jeff Teague, Derrick Favors, Tyler Herro and Markelle Fultz (among others) might not play. You get the picture.

In our models, if a player is questionable then we'll project him as if he's playing. When he's ruled out or doubtful, we'll adjust projections. You can see then how much uncertainty there is in the slate: If even just Giannis doesn't go, the slate will fundamentally shift with guys like Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton and others popping as values. Throw in these other big names, and the slate could look entirely different closer to 7 p.m. ET.

I'll run through the slate based on the information we currently have. At the top of the pricing structure are all the big names, led by James Harden. It's not an ideal spot for him against slow-paced Orlando, although he's shown he can win a slate any night. On Wednesday he put up 55 points like it was nothing.

The best studs are likely the Lakers guys, Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid right now on DraftKings. Note, however, that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are negatively correlated together. You can use them together if you want to be different and stack the game in tournaments, but it's not advisable to use both of them in cash games.

Embiid is a great value at $9,600 on DraftKings, and he'll play the second leg of the back-to-back tonight, which is a great sign for him and the Sixers. He put up 67 DK points last night in a tough matchup against the Celtics and now gets a supreme matchup against the fast-paced but bad Pelicans.

Value-wise, it's hard to peg things right now given so many injuries are currently up in the air. Kevin Huerter is standing out given he's moved into the starting lineup and starting to play more minutes; he's just $4,000. Someone like De'Anthony Melton stands out for Memphis, which is missing Morant and Clarke tonight against the fast-paced Bucks who could be without Giannis. Alec Burks has a tough matchup against Utah but will be without Draymond and probably Eric Paschall, a high-usage guy for this team.

But I wouldn't advise building lineups any time soon. Herro being out for Miami will shift value given the other injuries the Heat have. There are countless other examples of value likely opening up. Make sure to subscribe to our models to see up-to-the-minute projection changes.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

Nothing yet.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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