Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds & Pick: Fade San Antonio On Wednesday

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Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Demar Derozan.

Nuggets vs. Spurs Betting Odds

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Nuggets odds -4.5 [BET NOW]
Spurs odds +4.5 [BET NOW]
Moneyline -190/+160 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 225.5 [BET NOW]
Time 4 p.m. ET

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The Nuggets and Spurs tip off Wednesday afternoon for each team’s third game in the bubble.

This will be the second matchup between these Western Conference foes. In their first meeting in February, Denver battled back from a 23-point deficit to win 127-120, covering the 6.5-point spread in the process.

Denver opened as a five-point favorite in its looming bubble rematch on Wednesday.

Let’s break it down even more.

Denver Nuggets

After a lackluster opening loss to the Heat, the Nuggets knocked off Oklahoma City in overtime Monday.

Denver has been forced to juggle its rotation without Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton.

Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. has been putting the league on notice. Porter Jr. demonstrated his potential against the Thunder, scoring 37 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Denver’s 121-113 win.

The Nuggets have the inside track for the 3-seed in the West. Assuming Denver’s roster can get healthy before the postseason, Porter Jr. could be a huge boost to an already-deep Nuggets club.

Of note, Barton and Harris reportedly will not play against San Antonio, and Murray is questionable. Stay informed regarding all Denver injury updates via the Labs NBA Insiders Tool.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have entered bubble play with a sense of urgency as they attempt to extend the franchise’s 22-year postseason streak.

San Antonio won its opening two games: a back-and-forth affair with Sacramento and a close call against Memphis. However, San Antonio couldn’t make it three in a row against Philadelphia. The 76ers stole a win thanks to Shake Milton’s game-winning 3 on Monday.

Nonetheless, the Spurs are still right in the mix. San Antonio is within one game of the second play-in spot to challenge the Grizzlies.

Since the team lost LaMarcus Aldridge for the remainder of the season to shoulder surgery, the Spurs have embraced a small-ball lineup and have turned up the tempo. San Antonio is playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the bubble.

Here is where it gets wild: The Spurs are taking a bubble-low 29% of their shots from behind the arc but are hitting their 3s at an insane 43% clip. Despite an old-school shot profile, San Antonio is posting a top-10 Offensive Rating and averaging nearly five more points per game than its pre-bubble offense.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I think it is time to sell the Spurs. Not only are they shooting an outrageous mark from 3, but they also don’t match up well with the Nuggets.

Before the season suspension, Denver ranked top-10 in defensive 3-point percentage. But in the bubble, its opponents are shooting 43% from beyond the arc. There may be a correction in order for both sides.

Denver trots out one of the biggest lineups in the league with Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee flanking Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets’ strong frontcourt is an issue for a Spurs team with only one true big man in Jakob Poeltl.

The Nuggets may be hamstrung with injury troubles, but I think that the Spurs are due for a letdown, and Denver may find its groove after a big win over the Thunder.

I think Denver is in play here at -4.5 despite likely being shorthanded again. However, if Murray can play even limited minutes, I think Denver is a play up to -6. If Murray sits out again, then I still see value in Denver as high as -5.

Pick: Denver -4.5 (play up to -5)

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