NBA Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Suns vs. 76ers (Tuesday, August 11)
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers
Suns vs. 76ers Betting Odds
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|Suns odds||-9.5 [BET NOW]|
|76ers odds||+9.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-400/+325 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||225.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||4:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
The Suns look to continue their incredible run in the bubble while the 76ers just heard that Ben Simmons will miss the rest of the season. Can the 76ers rally through adversity or will the Suns continue their improbable push for the playoffs?
The Suns are on the back end of a back-to-back and it’s possible they’re without a few of their players. Kelly Oubre (knee), Aron Baynes (knee) and Elie Okobo (ankle) are all listed as doubtful at the time of writing.
The Suns are now 6-0 in the bubble with an 11.1 Net Rating, the best in the bubble. The Suns have taken dramatic steps forward as a team and one of the most critical is their improvement rebounding the basketball. This season they secured 49.7% of all rebound opportunities — in the bubble, 53.5%.
This has presented them with more opportunities for second-chance points and limited opponents’ easy put backs in the paint. But their big step forward is in limiting opponent’s eFG%. Per Cleaning the Glass, opponents’ eFG% is 50.8%, the third-lowest mark in the league.
The Suns have also pushed the pace. Per NBA.com, they have a 104.08 pace, fourth fastest in the bubble. As a result, they lead the league in fast-break points in the bubble with 15.8 per game. These easy looks are helping the Suns to a 115.6 Offensive Rating.
Watching Devin Booker has been incredible as well. He has a massive usage rate north of 35% in the bubble. He’s hit buzzer-beaters and is fresh off a 35-point performance against the Thunder. Look for Booker to stay hot in this game against the 76ers as he has the looks of a “Bubble MVP.”
The 76ers are literally limping into the playoffs. They will be without Ben Simmons (knee surgery), Joel Embiid (ankle) and Josh Richardson (rest). Keep an eye on the statuses of Al Horford (knee – questionable) and Tobias Harris (ankle – questionable).
The 76ers, a team that I thought had one of the highest ceilings in the East, has come crashing down with injuries to its two stars, Simmons and Embiid. Given the circumstances, I’d imagine the 76ers won’t play their players too much in this game as they try to enter the playoffs as healthy as possible rather than push for the 5-seed.
When Embiid and Simmons are off the court but Tobias Harris is on, Harris sees a clear uptick in usage, but the team suffers as a whole with a -2.5 point differential. Look for the 76ers to lean on Harris offensively, but it’s also important to understand that this defense is significantly worse without Embiid and Simmons (who should be given Defensive Player of the Year consideration).
Betting Analysis & Pick
This matchup and spread feel like such a trap, but given the circumstances, -8 is an interesting line. If Horford and Harris don’t play, this line is going to shoot into double-digits. Even if they play, I don’t think it drops too much more in the 76ers’ favor.
The 76ers are -3.3 net points without Simmons and Embiid. This Suns will capitalize on the 76ers’ injuries — without Embiid, the Sixers secure 1.2% fewer rebounds. Depending on the line, there could be some value on Deandre Ayton’s rebound total — he has averaged 9.2 RPG in the bubble.
Ultimately, the Suns have everything to play for and will leave it all on the floor, while the 76ers are trying to get healthy for a tough playoff matchup against the Celtics, Heat or Pacers.
I think the Suns continue their improbable run and I’m not ready to bet against them yet.
The PICK: Suns -9