Moore’s Friday NBA Betting Angles & Picks: Trust the Memphis Grizzlies on a Road Back-to-Back?
Brandon Dill/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant (12) of the Memphis Grizzlies and LeBron James (23) of the Los Angeles Lakers.
- Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies are in Los Angeles to face the Lakers on the second night of a back-to-back.
- See Matt Moore's betting breakdown and picks for Friday's slate below.
Here are some betting angles for Friday’s NBA slate based on matchups and trends:
PACERS AT KNICKS
- Spread: Pacers -7
- Over/Under: 211.5
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: I Can’t Believe I’m Betting the Knicks (Again)
The Knicks are 8-3 as a home dog to Eastern Conference teams this season. I know it’s the Knicks, but look, the Eastern Conference tends to get overrated as favorites by the market and the Knicks have been sneaky good against the spread lately.
The Pacers have been really rough since Victor Oladipo got back. They’re still trying to figure out how to add him to a system that was humming and that transition is difficult. Minutes and rotations have changed, and that gives guys a hard time. I don’t think two days of practice are going to change that.
This line is up from 5.5 at open and I just think too many folks are looking at the Knicks as a mid-size dog and fading.
THE PLAY: Sigh … the Knicks
CELTICS AT TIMBERWOLVES
- Spread: Celtics -7.5
- Over/Under: 226.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: Trusting the Celtics’ Defense
The Celtics surrender the fourth-lowest 3-point percentage in the league. They give up a decent amount, but there’s data that indicates that if an offense isn’t balanced, opposing defenses can take advantage.
In games in which the opponent took more than 37 3’s, the Celtics have gone 8-6 ATS this season, but more importantly, the under has gone 10-4, with opponents averaging just 150.6 points per 100 possessions.
Similarly, on the road vs. teams with a defensive efficiency above 108 (and the Wolves absolutely qualify there; their defense is horrible), the under is 7-2 in Celtics road games this season.
This line is already up to 7.5 from 6.5 and at eight, I’m going to really want to grab the Wolves, but I’m resisting. Stevens isn’t great on the road as a favorite (33-28-3 the last three seasons, 7-5-1 this season ATS), but he’s good enough for it not be profitable to fade. This under, however looks awesome, and the sharps have agreed as the total moved down 3.5 points from open.
The total in those games with volume 3-point teams was just 217, giving us a lot of wiggle room.
THE PLAY: Under 226.5
GRIZZLIES AT LAKERS
- Spread: Lakers -10.5
- Over/Under: 233.5
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
THE ANGLE: Memphis on Short Rest
The Grizzlies this season are 9-3-1 with rest disadvantage ATS, the fourth-best mark in the league. They lost in disappointing fashion to the Kings last night, after Harrison Barnes hit six three-pointers on a career night.
Now, I think they lose this game, but the Lakers are laying double-digits, where they are just 10-10-1 ATS, and 3-4 ATS when the opponent has a win percentage greater than 40%.
The Lakers pounded the Grizzlies the last time out, and their size advantage does matter in this one. But their bench unit should help to keep it close, and I like them to stay within range of single-digits. There’s a decent chance this goes up slightly by tip as well.
THE PLAY: Grizzlies +10.5