Moore’s Monday NBA Betting Angles (Oct. 28): The Bulls Offense Is a Sleeping Giant
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lauri Markkanen
Two angles for Monday’s action based on matchups and trends…
We evened things up Friday, going 2-0. Let’s keep it rolling. Warm-up music:
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The ANGLE: The Bulls Offense Is a Sleeping Giant
7 p.m. ET
OK, maybe not a giant, but like a really big guy with a face tattoo.
Chicago is 23rd in Offensive Rating after this weekend with just a 100.9 mark. A bad defense? Sure, that makes sense. But this team should be better offensively.
The Bulls are 24th in spot-up points per possession (via Synergy Sports), scoring just .806 points per possession. But that’s centered around two players: Kris Dunn is 2-of-10 and Thaddeus Young is 3-of-8. Here’s a question I’d like to pose:
WHY IN GOD’S NAME HAVE KRIS DUNN AND THADDEUS YOUNG TAKEN 25 PERCENT OF THE BULLS’ TOTAL SPOT-UP SHOTS? IN WHAT UNIVERSE DOES THAT MAKE SENSE?
They’re 24th in transition, shooting 54% from the field on the break.
Tomas Satoransky — who’s not a great scorer but a decent one — is 1-of-7 in the pick-and-roll.
I know what you’re thinking. “This is all a tiny sample size, Matt. It’s been three games.”
And that’s exactly why the Good Ship Bulls are turning it around.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are 21st defending jumpshots and 28th defending the rim. They’re turning the ball over 21% of the time (highest in the league), leading to easy points.
The Knicks are sixth in pace; the Bulls are 10th.
And we’ve got a 224 total? Even if the Bulls don’t regress, it means their offense remains a jumpshot clanging clunker that draws long rebounds the Knicks can turn into points. Someone’s putting up 120 in this game.
THE PLAY: Over 224, Bulls over 112.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
THE ANGLE: Blazers Big Trouble
8:30 p.m. ET
So Jusuf Nurkic is obviously still out with his broken leg until early next year. Zach Collins suffered a dislocated shoulder Sunday and will miss this game. (Pau Gasol’s out, too, but who knows if he’ll actually play this year.)
So the Blazers’ frontcourt rotation is Hassan Whiteside and Skal Labissiére vs. the Spurs. These are high-athleticism players who struggle with defensive awareness and are mistake-prone. Whiteside, for example, had a -12.7 Net Rating vs. the Spurs last year.
Whiteside was great vs. the Nuggets… right up until Nikola Jokic played him off the floor. Whiteside was great vs. the Kings because they are a dumpster on fire rolling downhill into a combustible sewage depository. He was a -4 in 26 minutes vs. the Mavericks.
San Antonio’s bigs are better and more versatile. The Collins injury really hurts the Blazers’ rebounding and versatility. They have been categorically bad without Whiteside on the floor (-5.9 per 100 possessions).
San Antonio’s favored by 5.5 Monday, and the Blazers being on a back-to-back is factored in. The line also jumped off from Spurs -3.5 to -5.5 with Collins’ injury. 538’s RAPTOR rating has the game at Spurs -4. But with it being less than two full possessions, after Portland narrowly beat the Mavericks, there’s still value on the Spurs.
THE PLAY: Spurs -5.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]