The Miami Heat (38-34) and Indiana Pacers (16-56) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 5:00 p.m. ET from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 9-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Heat -9), with the over/under set at 243.5 total points. Miami is a -370 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Indiana is +300 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Pacers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 29.
Heat vs Pacers Prediction, Pick
- Heat vs Pacers pick: Aaron Nesmith Over 13.5 Points (+100)
My Pacers vs. Heat best bet is on Aaron Nesmith to score over 13.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Pacers Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -108 | 243.5 -114o / -106u | -370 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -112 | 243.5 -114o / -106u | +300 |
Heat vs Pacers NBA Preview
The Pacers are struggling more than any team in the league right now. They have lost 18 of their last 19 games entering tonight's contest, and there's little reason to believe that their struggles are going to fade any time soon.
Any way you slice it, Indiana has been terrible this season. The Pacers rank 27th in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating — and those poor metrics are only amplified by the fact that they rank top-10 in pace.
Speaking of pace, though, the Pacers draw a matchup against a Heat squad tonight that leads the entire league in pace — and while Miami's pace of play may ultimately shine a brighter light on some of Indiana's problems, it should also create some value for us to attack in the player prop market.
Heat vs Pacers Predictions, Betting Analysis
Action PRO is projecting 14.9 points for Aaron Nesmith in the Pacers' matchup against the Heat this evening, showing a solid 12.6% edge against his current prop line of over/under 13.5, which is strong enough to tag the Over with a B+ grade in our database.
Nesmith has seen an uptick in playing time for the Pacers recently. He's averaging 29.7 minutes per game on the season, however, he enters tonight's matchup having played 32+ minutes in three straight games — and as a result, he scored 14+ points in all three of those contests, while reaching 19+ points in two of them.
Zooming out a little bit further, Nesmith has scored 14+ points in seven of his last nine games, while getting up to 19+ points in four of those contests.
This should be a good spot for him to keep the momentum going in a matchup against a Heat squad that ranks 1st in pace and 22nd in points allowed per game on the season.
Pick: Aaron Nesmith Over 13.5 Points (+100)
