Tuesday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Nets vs. Pelicans and Suns vs. Clippers
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2).
There are six games on the NBA schedule for Tuesday night and our experts are betting totals, spreads and props in four specific matchups:
- 7:30 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks
- 8 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
- 9 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
- 10:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers
See what bets they’re making below.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Rob Perez: Hawks at Knicks
- Spread: Knicks -1.5
- Over/Under: 225
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
May I ask a question? Who exactly (name names please) is going to play any semblance of defense in this game? I’ll wait.
It’s been a while since we’ve had one of those Trae Young inferno games, and players always seem to resurrect themselves, no matter who the lightning rod scorer is, in Madison Square Garden.
As for the Hawks, they are the 27th ranked defense in the league for a reason — especially impressive ineptitude considering they play at only the ninth-fastest pace. There is no reason why this total shouldn’t be 230.
The Knicks are allergic to any sort of coherent offensive production or consistent shooting, but life is made a whole lot easier when you’re playing against the Tune Squad.
The PICK: Over 225
John Ewing: Nets at Pelicans
- Spread: Nets -2.5
- Over/Under: 228
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
Lonzo Ball is in the midst of an up and down season. The Pelicans point guard is averaging 10.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists this year, but was recently benched.
However, Ball should be back in the lineup for tonight’s matchup against the Nets. Brooklyn has been kind to opposing point guards ranking in the bottom five in defense against the position, according to HashtagBasketball.
Oddsmakers have listed Ball’s over/under for assists tonight at 5.5. This matches his season average but it is not accounting for the plus-matchup against the Nets.
Brooklyn has allowed opposing point guards to average 9.7 assists this season — the worst mark in basketball. According to our FantasyLabs player projections, Ball is expected to have 6.9 assists.
With a plus matchup and the model pointing to value on the over, I’ll be betting that Lonzo has six or more assists tonight.
The PICK: Ball over 5.5 assists
John Ewing is 518-457-19 (53.1%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.
Brandon Anderson: Nets at Pelicans
Don’t look now, but one of Kyrie Irving’s teams has been really good without him. Thanks to especially hot play from Spencer Dinwiddie, the Nets are now 10-5 with Irving out injured, including wins over the Celtics, Nuggets, and 76ers.
About the same time that streak started, the Pelicans looked like they had saved their season with a three-game winning streak. They’ve lost 12 in a row since, and now the season appears to be gone. The Pels aren’t just losing, they’ve only covered once in their last 10 games and only nine times in 25 outings this season.
This one opened at -1 and is already moving heavily in Brooklyn’s favor, so grab the Nets while this is still essentially a moneyline pick. Sure, the Pelicans are finally starting to get healthy, and they have to win at some point. We’ll just hope that isn’t tonight.
The PICK: Nets -2
Matt Moore: Magic at Jazz
- Spread: Jazz -6.5
- Over/Under: 208
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
The Magic rank 27th in location eFG%, per Cleaning The Glass. The Jazz, meanwhile, have a top-10 expected opponent average, and opponents shoot slightly under that.
So you have a team that takes bad shots, on the road vs. a team that forces their opponent to take bad shots.
The under when teams bottom five in shot selection face a home team top five in opponent shot selection is 25-20 (55.6%) this season, including 2-0 when it’s the Magic on the road. That number also improves to 6-3 when the closing total is under 209. The lower the total, the higher percentage of times the under has hit.
The Jazz are better defensively as of late; they’ve held their last three opponents to an eFG% under 53%. They have physical guards to contain Orlando’s underwhelming ones, and Orlando is 25th in percentage of shots at the rim. They take more shots from mid-range than at the rim or from three.
This will be a slog and the type of game where the Jazz control the pace. I don’t like the spread at that number, but it should be noted that Orlando is 1-11 vs. teams over .500 this season.
The Play: Under 208
Matt Moore is 648-648-17 (50%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.
Bryan Mears: Suns at Clippers
- Spread: Clippers -13.5
- Over/Under: 224
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have posted below-average Offensive Ratings over the last two weeks and could be missing key offensive talent in this one. For the Clips, Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams are questionable, while JaMychal Green is unlikely to play. For the Suns, Devin Booker and Tyler Johnson are both TBD after missing last night’s loss to the Blazers.
The Clips struggled last game without Williams, scoring just 106 points in a road loss to the lowly Bulls. To be fair, they were also without Kawhi Leonard, but Lou Will is a fairly valuable part of these team given his shot creation off the bench. Without him, the Clips have been 3.3 points per 100 possessions worse offensively, although they have been 5.5/100 better defensively.
Given the Suns’ play of late — they’ve been below the 50th percentile offensively in four of their last five games — and the potential absence of Booker, I think there’s some value on the under. Without Booker, the Suns have been a ridiculous 10.2 points/100 worse offensively. He’s been awesome in transition and in the halfcourt, and his absence would be surely felt.
This game also currently matches a Pro Trend I’ve slightly adjusted, which identifies potential sharp money on the under:
In games where the under has gotten the minority of bets but the line has moved in its favor (or held firm), it’s been historically profitable to follow that sharp reverse line movement.
I’ll wait on the injury news for this one, but especially if Lou and Booker are out, I’ll grab the under here.
Lean: Under 224
Bryan Mears is 410-319-11 (56.2%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.