Nine NBA games fill Friday’s slate, the second full group-play night of the season. Two of them air on Prime Video: Knicks vs. Pacers in the early window and Warriors vs. Spurs late. Kalshi and Polymarket both run group-play and prediction markets on the tournament, and a few of Friday’s prices have moved enough this week to stand out.
NBA Cup Friday Schedule: Nine Group-Play Games, Two on Prime Video
- 7:00 PM ET: Milwaukee vs. Orlando
- 7:00 PM ET (Prime): New York vs. Indiana
- 8:00 PM ET: Cleveland vs. Miami
- 8:00 PM ET: Atlanta vs. Chicago
- 8:00 PM ET: Memphis vs. New Orleans
- 8:30 PM ET: Utah vs. Houston
- 9:30 PM ET (Prime): Golden State vs. San Antonio
- 10:00 PM ET: Portland vs. Sacramento
- 10:30 PM ET: Oklahoma City vs. LA Clippers
Warriors at Spurs (9:30 PM ET): The Spread and Curry’s Status
San Antonio comes in at 10-2 and riding a 10-game winning streak, with Victor Wembanyama averaging 30.3 points and 11.7 rebounds. Golden State (8-4) is already missing Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody to long-term knee injuries, and Stephen Curry is out for this one as well. He tore his oblique against Houston on Wednesday, and ESPN’s Anthony Slater reported that 2 weeks is the optimistic read: people inside the organization are quietly preparing for a monthlong absence.
Curry was averaging 27.8 points a game before the injury, and Golden State coach Steve Kerr called the team’s level of worry “high” when he spoke to reporters this week. That gap shows up clearly on Kalshi, where San Antonio sits at 84% to win and Golden State at 16%, on more than $416,000 traded so far.
Grab the Kalshi promo code, and read our Kalshi review.
Knicks at Pacers (7 PM ET): New York a Small Favorite
New York (6-5) travels to Indianapolis off a 115-107 loss to Cleveland on Tuesday but still grades out as the favorite. Indiana’s injury list explains most of that gap: the Pacers are already without Tyrese Haliburton, and Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin are out as well, with Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard listed day-to-day. Kalshi’s own market leans harder toward New York than the spread does, pricing the Knicks at 71% and the Pacers at 29%.
Download the Action Network app for more NBA and prediction markets analysis.
Other Cup Games: Thunder at Clippers, Cavaliers at Heat, Jazz at Rockets
- Thunder vs. Clippers (10:30 PM ET): Oklahoma City is a clear favorite at 72% on Kalshi, with the Clippers at 28%.
- Cavaliers vs. Heat (8 PM ET): the tightest read of the night, with Miami at 55% and Cleveland at 45%.
- Jazz vs. Rockets (8:30 PM ET): the most lopsided, with Houston at 91% and Utah down at 9%.
Of those three, Cavaliers vs. Heat is drawing the most activity, with more than $140,000 traded on Kalshi, well ahead of Jazz vs. Rockets (about $90,000) and Thunder-Clippers (roughly $58,000).
NBA Cup Winner Odds: Celtics and Spurs Lead
The two platforms don’t agree on how big a favorite San Antonio is to win the whole tournament. FOX Sports had the Celtics narrowly ahead of the Spurs earlier this week, with the Thunder and Pistons next in line. Kalshi’s Cup champion market is close too, with Boston at 20% and San Antonio at 18% on more than $655,000 traded. Polymarket sees it differently, giving the Spurs 49% against the Celtics’ 25%: a much wider gap in San Antonio’s favor than either Kalshi of FOX Sports.
| Platform | Celtics | Spurs |
| Kalshi | 20% | 18% |
| Polymarket | 25% | 49% |
NBA Cup Combos: What To Build and How Combos Are Priced
Kalshi lets traders stack several NBA Cup prediction markets into a single combo instead of trading each game on its own, with one combined price covering every leg. Two examples from Friday’s board (for illustration only, not picks) show how that looks: a $10 combo pairing the Knicks and the Cavaliers to win pays $5 in profit, and a $10 combo pairing the Jazz and the Cavaliers to win pays the same $5, even though Utah is the long shot in its own game.
Cleveland shows up as a leg in both, which says something about how unsettled that game looks compared to the rest of the night’s board. Group-play point differential also carries into knockout seeding, so results like these feed directly into how tightly teams are bunched heading into December’s bracket.
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
