Tuesday NBA Finals Player Prop Bets & Picks: Will We See Another Triple-Double In Game 4? (Oct. 6)
Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat and LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers during Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
- Jimmy Butler's numbers were off the charts in the Miami Heat's win on Sunday. Can he do it again in Game 4?
- Brandon Anderson analyzes the value on betting a repeat from Butler, plus props on LeBron James and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
- See where he's finding value on those players below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Bet Quality Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tuesday’s player props come from Game 4 of the NBA Finals:
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat at 9 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
LA Lakers, LeBron James
The Prop: Record a triple-double (+215)
Let’s take a look at LeBron James’ Finals stat lines so far:
- Game 1: 25 points, 13 rebounds, 9 assists
- Game 2: 33 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists
- Game 3: 25 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists
The wild thing is that none of that even gets our attention at this point. Heck, those are a bit low Finals numbers by James’ standards. James has yet to record a triple-double in the 2020 NBA Finals. But he’s also one rebound and four assists away from having three straight.
The points are a given, obviously. James has had double-digit rebounds in 11 of 18 playoff games, and that’s really more like 11 of 15 if you throw out three blowout games. The assists will be the number to watch, especially since James hasn’t hit 10 yet in the Finals.
James has double-digit assists in six playoff games, and with assists, we don’t get to throw out those three blowout games because two of the double-digit assist games came in them. James’ passing genius was why the Lakers blew the opponent out. James is at eight assists or higher in 13-of-18 playoff games. Eight is not enough, but that tells us James should be close every night.
That’s where I’m willing to give James the benefit of the doubt — partly because of his reputation and partly because of the motivation. James was just outplayed on the highest stage by Jimmy Butler, and he’s going to want to make a statement here and also has one eye on that Finals MVP trophy. Voters like counting numbers and triple-doubles. With a statement line like Butler’s in Game 3, James can put one hand on both trophies.
Check out our new NBA PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler
The Prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (+105) | Record a triple-double (+600)
With Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic sidelined the past two games, the Heat have turned into a Butler hero ball show out of necessity.
The Heat need Butler’s playmaking and passing without Dragic. They need his toughness and leadership without Bam. They need a much bigger scoring load. And really they just need minutes soaked up by a great player with two other great players gone.
Butler has responded by playing almost 45 minutes in two straight games, and his numbers have gone through the roof. Entering this series, Butler was averaging 20.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 36.4 minutes per game. These past two games, he’s at 32.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 13.0 assists in 44.8 minutes. Just a totally different player.
This series isn’t going to get any easier. Even if Adebayo (questionable) plays some, he won’t be himself, and the Heat will still be missing Dragic. They’re going to need Butler to play nearly every minute again. We’ll see if his scoring hits that 40-point threshold again, but rebounding is about effort and time on the court, and you know Butler will have both of those.
Butler has eight and 11 rebounds these last two games, leaving everything on the court. We’re projecting him at 8.4 and he should hit this over again. Play it at +EV or down to -115.
And if you are convinced by the rebounds, you might even want to consider a small bet on a second straight Butler triple-double. You know the points will be there, and he’s had 13 assists in two straight. I’d put him slightly below 50/50 to hit double-digit rebounds, but at +600 to have a triple-double, that looks worth the play.
LA Lakers, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The Prop: Over 9.5 points (-121)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope couldn’t miss in the Lakers’ run through the Western playoff bracket. Coming into the Finals, he was averaging 2.1 made 3s per game on 42%, helping him score 9.9 points per game. KCP had hit double-digit points in 10-of-15 playoff games coming into the Finals.
Now, suddenly, he’s gone cold. Caldwell-Pope is an ugly 5-of-20 behind the arc against the Heat, just 25%. But the important number there is the 20 — KCP is still shooting. He may not hit 42% again, but he’s not going to shoot 25% forever either.
Even with that poor shooting, KCP is averaging 9.7 PPG in the finals and has covered this number two of three games. He has scored double-digits in 11-of-14 Lakers wins this postseason. If you like the Lakers to bounce back tonight, that’s all the more reason to play KCP’s points over.