After quite a few near misses, we finally hauled in a big fish in the Hawks-Knicks game, with Josh Hart finishing with the most rebounds at +940 odds. We then followed that up with Jamal Murray sinking the most 3-pointers at +284 in the Wolves-Nuggets nightcap.
With three more playoff games on tap for Tuesday, let's hope we can keep the gravy train going and cash more tickets.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks, Predictions: Tuesday, April 21
- 76ers vs Celtics Points Leader – Jaylen Brown (+187)
- Trail Blazers vs Spurs Rebounds Leader – Deni Avdija (+890)
- Rockets vs Lakers Points Leader – Kevin Durant (+194)
76ers vs Celtics Points Leader Prediction
The box score was very revealing in Philadelphia's 123-91 loss to the Celtics in Game 1. Both teams finished with 90 shot attempts, but the 76ers shot just 39% compared to Boston at 50%.
Boston was almost happy to let the 76ers win the battle in the paint (58-42) if it meant it could dominate the perimeter.
The Celtics sank 16 3-pointers, while Philadelphia managed only four. It's worth noting that Boston finished the season third in 3-point field goals, while the 76ers ranked 22nd.
With Boston's perimeter aggression likely being the difference in this series, I think you have to look to a Celtics player to finish Game 2 as the top scorer.
Jaylen Brown has the second-shortest odds at +187, despite having a higher scoring average (28.7) than the favorite Tyrese Maxey (28.2).
The thought is that Maxey could put up a ton of points with Joel Embiid sidelined for yet another game.
However, Embiid's absence means the Celtics can devote more attention to slowing down Maxey. Although Maxey chipped in with 21 points and Paul George finished with 17, no other 76er scored more than the 13 points that rookie VJ Edgecombe contributed.
Boston is as high as a 13.5-point favorite, and if the bookmakers are right to project another lopsided performance, Maxey could find himself on the bench for much of the second half.
Therefore, this spot is all about fading Maxey, with Brown being the likeliest option to finish with the most points.
Pick: Top Scorer: Jaylen Brown (+187)
Trail Blazers vs Spurs Rebounds Leader Prediction
Victor Wembanyama's overall dominance can make it a bit tricky to find value in any category for a game leader. The Frenchman entered this series as both the leading scorer (25.0) and rebounder (11.3).
Although Wembanyama had a game-high 35 points in the opener, he managed only five boards, as the Spurs shared much of the rebounding duties.
San Antonio had as many as five players who recorded five or more rebounds, while Portland's Deni Avdija had 10 on his own.
Although Avdija ranks fourth in this series for rebounding (6.9), he's clearly Portland's best player if the Trail Blazers are going to have any chance for success.
He scored 30 points and finished with the most minutes (39) of any player — a trend I expect to continue in Game 2.
Wembanyama had success beyond the arc, sinking five of his six 3-point attempts. Therefore, he could be buoyed to continue trying his luck from the perimeter, leaving more rebounding opportunities for Avdija to claim inside the paint.
If that scenario plays out, Avdija is a tremendous value play at +890 odds.
Pick: Top Rebounder: Deni Avdija (+890)
Rockets vs Lakers Points Leader Prediction
With Kevin Durant unavailable to start the series, the Los Angeles Lakers pulled off the upset (107-98) as 2.5-point underdogs. Durant missed the opener due to a knee contusion he suffered in practice, but should be back for Game 2.
Durant is currently the highest scorer (26.0) in this series, with Luka Doncic (33.5) still out with a hamstring injury. Yet, LeBron James, who averaged 20.8 points, has the shortest odds to finish with the most points at +154.
James scored just 19 points in Game 1 despite not having either Doncic or Austin Reaves (23.3 points) to share the load. Instead, the four-time champion opted to facilitate for his teammates by dishing out 13 assists.
At this stage in his career, I'm not sure you can expect James to have one of those big scoring outputs that we've seen in the past. Despite his physical advantages, he's always been more of a creator than a pure scorer.
Durant, on the other hand, is more of a scoring assassin.
The Rockets have already missed out on a great opportunity to get ahead in this series with Doncic and Reaves still sidelined. Look for them to reassert their dominance, with Durant leading the way.
Pick: Top Scorer: Kevin Durant (+194)
