If you want to find real value on a daily NBA slate, you have to be willing to back the 'dogs.
We have 14 games on Wednesday, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. I've looked closely at tonight's matchups, schedule spots, and rotational advantages to find teams the market is currently undervaluing.
Let's get into my NBA moneyline underdog picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 4.
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NBA Moneyline Picks for Wednesday, November 4
- Suns Moneyline (+131)
- Nets Moneyline (+142)
Trail Blazers vs Suns Moneyline Pick
The Trail Blazers look to build on their scorching 5-1 start as they head to Phoenix for a Western Conference clash with the Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center.
On the surface, everything points to the Blazers reigning supreme, as they absolutely smashed the Suns in the season opener by a whopping 41-point margin, led by a 25-point performance from Dame Lillard in his first game back with Portland.
That said, the NBA is a league full of volatile results, with every single game providing a clean slate despite any previous meetings.
No motivation in sports is greater than a true opportunity for revenge, and that is exactly the chance the Suns will get on Wednesday night in front of a home crowd.
Despite how dominant the Blazers have looked so far, they just received devastating news: star guard Ja Morant is now expected to miss several weeks after suffering a Grade 2 left hamstring sprain.
While Portland has a deep rotation, with Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson able to replace Morant’s production, the remarkable athleticism the Murray State product provides for the Blazers at both ends of the floor can't be overstated.
It's already a difficult test having to lock up five-time All-Star Devin Booker, so Phoenix has a convenient opportunity to take advantage of Morant’s absence.
Both Booker and Miles Bridges are in scorching form despite an abysmal 1-4 overall record to start the year, and I expect them both to thrive in front of a home crowd after getting embarrassed in the first meeting.
Phoenix has yet to cover a single spread all year long, and something has got to give, which is exactly what I'll be expecting tonight.
Portland is extremely due for regression. From my perspective, they are being drastically overvalued in the market despite heading into a very hostile environment without a key member of their rotation.
I also expect Suns center Khaman Maluach to play a massive role in limiting Donovan Clingan’s effectiveness on the glass.
I'm very willing to take a shot on the Suns moneyline at +130 in this spot, which should build a solid foundation for our value parlay on Wednesday night.
Pick: Suns ML (+131)
Hornets vs Nets Moneyline Pick
In the second game I will be covering for our two-leg moneyline parlay, the Hornets head to Brooklyn for an Eastern Conference showdown at the Barclays Center in another prime opportunity for revenge after Charlotte took down the Nets in the two’s first matchup earlier this season.
After an impressive start, winning three of its first four contests, Charlotte has experienced significant regression with four straight losses.
Despite the return of guard Coby White to their backcourt, the Hornets lead the NBA with 158 turnovers, including 82 over their current four-game skid.
In their last game on Monday night, the Hornets turned the ball over an incredible 27 times versus a stout Detroit defense.
While the Nets are not as elite defensively as the Pistons, they still forced Charlotte into committing 21 turnovers in the first meeting and will absolutely be a “live 'dog” if they are able to replicate that remarkable defensive effort.
Though Hornets' new acquisitions Naz Reid and Brandon Miller are off to phenomenal starts, the team is clearly struggling since losing LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges this past offseason.
The Nets boast a phenomenal offensive frontcourt with forwards Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr., who are both in the midst of hot shooting streaks.
While Brooklyn’s improvements over the course of the season are far from evident on the surface, the team also has elite guard depth, featuring versatile PG Egor Demin and rookie combo guard Mikel Brown Jr. out of Louisville.
The Nets' defensive frontcourt has the size and physicality to contain Reid as well, given that both Mo Wagner and Day’ron Sharpe have played key roles on defense.
Miller is also shooting just 35.5% from the field, which is rather problematic given he and Reid are by far the best offensive players on Charlotte’s roster.
I expect the Nets to rise to the occasion in front of a home Brooklyn crowd, and will be taking a shot on their +140 moneyline, which should round out our value play quite nicely.
Pick: Nets ML (+142)
