The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Wednesday, November 4.
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NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, November 4
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Pistons
By Matt Moore
There’s a significant gap between the moneyline and the spread for this game, mostly based on the books’ moving away from pick‘em lines.
I’m pretty close on the spread projection (Pistons -2.1) and like Detroit on the matchup, so I will take the Pistons to win for an extra 10 cents, and I am fine with it up to -130.
The Sixers’ offense is still largely unstructured. They are still figuring out how to play together and what combinations work together.
Detroit tends to tear loosely constructed teams apart because their defense is so athletic and physical, even with Jalen Duren still out.
Joel Embiid missed the previous matchup between these teams when the Pistons won by 13, and he will certainly have his way with Paul Reed.
But, Embiid doesn’t attack inside as much as he used to, so I don’t think he has an outlier performance beyond his normal excellence.
Then, there’s the Sixers’ transition attack; the Pistons have the third-best transition defense this season after being third last year as well.
The Sixers play up-tempo (9th in transition rate). Detroit will cut off the easy baskets and make them execute in the halfcourt.
Philly’s defense has been tough, but the Pistons are comfortable in close, ugly games. I think this game stays close and could go to overtime, but I do think Detroit gets it done.
Pick: Pistons Moneyline (-120)
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Hawks vs. Wizards
By Joe Dellera
From a tactical standpoint, this is a dream matchup for Anthony Davis.
Davis has cleared this threshold in two straight games and is currently averaging right around this mark on the season, but the specific defensive deficiencies of the Hawks give him a very high ceiling here.
I was bouncing back and forth between targeting Trae Young's assists in a revenge game against his former squad or backing AD, and I ultimately decided that Young is going to spend the entire night funneling the ball to Davis in the paint.
Atlanta loves to push the tempo and play fast, but they are very weak against opponents operating in the post, the restricted area, and the paint.
With Jock Landale officially ruled out and Jalen Johnson questionable, the Hawks are forced to rely on Onyeka Okongwu at the five.
Anthony Davis's most notable historical tendency is that he despises banging down low against physical, traditional centers — and he doesn't have to worry about that tonight.
Against Atlanta's undersized and depleted frontcourt, AD can operate in space, score off the dribble, post up smaller defenders, and establish deep position in the paint.
We have already watched centers torch this Atlanta defense this season: Bam Adebayo dropped 24, Alperen Sengun put up 29, and Jarrett Allen easily cleared his points prop.
The Hawks also commit a ton of fouls, and Davis remains elite at generating contact to pad his stats at the free-throw line.
If Okongwu gets into early foul trouble, it will create a feedback loop of uncontested looks at the rim for AD.
Pick: Anthony Davis Over 23.5 Points (-115)
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Bucks vs. Celtics
By Matt Moore
I rarely dip into the prop market for my three-star bets, but this is hands-down my favorite look on the entire Wednesday slate.
The Bucks have been an unmitigated disaster defensively to start the year, and a big part of their failure is how they defend the three-point line.
My initial handicap was actually to find a Milwaukee player to hit corner threes because Boston allows the highest rate of corner threes in the league, but Kyle Kuzma was the only viable option and there is no chance I am putting my hard-earned money on a Kyle Kuzma prop.
So, I flipped the handicap to the other side of the floor. The Bucks are surrendering a staggeringly high rate of outside shots, currently ranking in the top five for overall opponent three-pointers allowed and in the top three for opponent corner threes allowed.
That plays perfectly into the hands of a Celtics offense engineered to spam high-value triples.
With Jayson Tatum currently listed as questionable for rest, the volume for Paul George only gets safer.
If Tatum happens to sit, George isn't going to magically transform into a ball-dominant isolation player; instead, Boston will utilize guys like Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to drive downhill, force the defense to collapse, and kick it out to George for spot-up opportunities.
You can find 3.5 at a plus-money price in the market right now, but I am trying to stay disciplined. I don't want to mess around with escalators for four or five threes, even though the ceiling should be there against Milwaukee's drop coverage scheme.
I am content paying the juice on the base number of 2.5 and walking away with a ticket that accurately reflects his volume floor.
Pick: Paul George Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
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Hornets vs. Nets
By Matt Moore
This number suggests a rock fight and it’s more like a trebuchet battle. It’s true, the Hornets and Nets don’t have great aim, but they do launch big swings of boulders from distance.
For the Hornets, Kon Knueppel and Coby White are probable, giving Charlotte back essentially shooting and creation for their style of play.
Charlotte ranks first in 3-point rate, the Nets are third. The Hornets have been 29th in 3-point percentage.
You know what helps with that? Getting Kon Kneuppel and Coby White back.
We’ve already seen this line move two points from open (212.5), and the injury report really does make that big of a difference.
Charlotte plays a slow pace but hasn’t had the guards to run. The Hornets will likely pick up the pace now that they are getting their full roster back.
The Hornets still might not be good enough to back a spread play on them here, but the bar has clearly been raised.
The Nets’ biggest offensive problem is at the rim where they are 30th in FG%. But Charlotte tends to play smaller with Moussa Diabate and doesn’t have great success in deterring rim attempts or percentage.
I make this total 219.5. I think the simple shot profiles mean this figure has to assume 109 points or more from both teams.
Pick: Over 213.5 (-115)
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Cavaliers vs. Thunder
By Joe Dellera
I am isolating the rebounding market for Isaiah Hartenstein tonight and taking him to go over 10.5 boards against the Cavaliers. I heavily considered taking his rebounds & assists combo prop at 14.5 for near even-money, but I got burned by the exact same bet in this specific matchup just last game.
Hartenstein hooked me at 23.5 PRA because he came up short in the scoring department in that game, but the crucial takeaway was that he still managed to rip down 14 rebounds on 25 rebound chances.
Cleveland's defensive philosophy essentially mandates that opposing centers stay anchored near the basket. The Cavs deploy double-big lineups featuring Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, keeping the paint highly congested and forcing Hartenstein to operate strictly in the restricted area on both ends of the floor.
That naturally creates a high floor for his rebounding opportunities in this matchup.
Oklahoma City's rotation is also very thin on the interior right now. With Jalen Williams listed as questionable, the Thunder lack versatile frontcourt size.
While rookie Aday Mara gave them 20 productive minutes in their last outing against Cleveland, he is prone to foul trouble and certainly isn't a guy that Mark Daigneault wants to trust with 30-plus minutes in a tightly contested game.
Hartenstein is vital to this team as an interior presence, a defensive anchor, and a post facilitator. He is going to be forced into heavy minutes out of positional necessity in this spot — and against a Cleveland team that generates a ton of physical scrums under the rim, over 10.5 rebounds should be a solid play.
Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 Rebounds (-120)
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Pacers vs. Grizzlies
This play is predicated on fading the Pacers' offense rather than blindly trusting the Grizzlies' defense.
The absence of the Tyrese Haliburton is the catalyst here. Haliburton is the undisputed engine of this team, and without him orchestrating the offense, the Pacers' entire analytical profile falls off a cliff.
Despite Indiana naturally operating as a high-paced team (eighth in the league), their pace drops by 2.6 possessions per game whenever Haliburton is off the floor.
The offensive efficiency takes an even sharper dive, plummeting from a 115.5 offensive rating with him on the court to just 108.4 when he sits.
If you remove the outlier performance against a horrendous Miami defense where they scored 125 points, the Pacers are averaging a meager 101 points per game without their star guard. Everything grinds to a halt: isolation sets increase, assist points vanish, and turnovers naturally spike.
Making matters worse, the rest of their rotation in banged up too. Kelly Oubre, Obi Toppin, and Ivica Zubac are all questionable.
The Grizzlies are equipped to stifle this disjointed unit. Memphis is playing at the 11th-fastest pace but relies on massive interior size with Zach Edey and physical forwards to completely control the glass and protect the paint.
On the season, only one team has managed to clear their team total against Memphis, and that required an overtime period against the Pelicans.
Indiana is just 3-5 to the team total over this season, and two of those overs came when Haliburton was actually playing.
Pick: Pacers Team Total Under 111.5 (-110)
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Timberwolves vs. Rockets
By Matt Moore
The betting market has completely lost the plot regarding Anthony Edwards's actual value to the point spread.
I continue to run into battle every night arguing that Edwards, while a phenomenal talent, does not swing a betting line by this massive of a margin.
When Ant went down with his injury, the market freaked out and severely downgraded Minnesota's power rating.
Yes, they took a bad loss to the Warriors, but they quickly bounced back to handle the Clippers and prove that their foundational floor remains high.
Even without Edwards, the Timberwolves are still elite on the defensive end, tough on the interior, and refuse to get bullied on the glass.
My personal projections have this game sitting at Houston -3.8.
When both of these rosters are fully healthy, they are practically identical in my power ratings. Shifting this line all the way out to 8.5 is a drastic overreaction.
The Rockets are a very good team, but they have a distinct, frustrating tendency to self-sabotage and let inferior teams hang around when things are going well.
Houston is also dealing with significant rebounding issues tonight; Steven Adams remains out with a soleus strain, and Clint Capela is questionable.
If the Rockets lose their typical dominance on the offensive glass, it limits their margin for error. Giving a tough, defensively sound Minnesota team this many points on the spread is a mistake.
Pick: Timberwolves +8.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Suns
By Matt Moore
I currently project this total all the way down at 221, giving us a solid 6.5 points of cushion against the market.
While the Blazers certainly possess an explosive offensive ceiling, their defense has been the most impressive part of their profile early in the season. They are a very balanced unit, currently boasting a top-10 defensive rating (109.0) despite facing a fairly difficult schedule of opposing offenses.
We already saw Portland obliterate Phoenix in the season opener, and while I don't expect a blowout of that magnitude again, the Blazers have the perimeter length to make half-court execution difficult.
On the flip side, the Suns have been an unmitigated disaster defensively, holding the worst defensive rating in the NBA at 124.0. However, I simply refuse to believe a team with their personnel will remain the worst defense in the league by the time December rolls around.
The Suns have the pieces to contain the perimeter much better than they have shown. Offensively, Phoenix sits at 11th in the league, but that metric feels artificially inflated after playing teams like Denver that are deceptively easy to score on right now.
This game is going to feature a heavy dose of drop coverage, and Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green have all graded out very poorly against drop schemes this season.
The possessions are going to grind down, and I expect Phoenix to positively regress on the defensive end, resulting in a much tighter, lower-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 227.5 (-110)
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Mavericks vs. Spurs
The market has already bet this line down from an opening of 12.5 to 11.5, but giving Dallas double digits is still far too generous.
The Mavericks are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Kings—a team I genuinely wasn't sure was going to win a single basketball game until December. However, the context of that loss is critical: Dallas was operating without Kyrie Irving. This team is a completely different animal when Kyrie is on the floor orchestrating the offense.
With Irving active, the Mavericks boast an elite 120.0 offensive rating. When he sits, that efficiency plummets to 107.4, which is quite literally bad enough to lose to the Kings.
Kyrie's presence dictates the entire flow of the offense; he generates significantly more ball movement (+6.9 in assist points), creates open three-point looks, and attacks the rim to get the team to the foul line (+5 free throw attempts per 100 possessions).
You can throw out the data from the previous matchup between the Mavericks and Spurs this season because neither Irving nor Cooper Flagg played in that game.
While San Antonio is playing solid defense, their perimeter personnel is undersized and vulnerable to elite pick-and-roll ball handlers.
The Spurs are coming off a game on Monday where they blew out the Jazz and pulled their starters early, so they will be rested, but the Mavericks have the motivational edge and the offensive firepower to exploit San Antonio's perimeter mismatches.
I am grabbing the points with the Mavericks tonight in what should be a great bounce-back spot.
Pick: Mavericks +11.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Clippers
By Matt Moore
Just a light sprinkle here based on the number.
Miami is in LA for the dreaded LA Nightlife set. The Heat are a bit more immune to it, playing in Miami after all, but it’s still a distracting time for players, many of whom vacation or own homes in LA and have social engagements when they are there for extended time.
Then there’s this: the Clippers aren’t good, but they aren’t a complete train wreck. They are still well coached and possess some talent.
Since 2021, Ty Lue is 6-4 ATS against Erik Spoelstra.
The Heat's system of using fewer screens and trying to run the ball down the opposing team's throat probably won’t work against a Clippers squad that is more comfortable in unstructured environments.
I think Miami might still be overrated in the market, and I’ll take a shot on the Clippers adding to their frustrating start to the season.
Pick: Clippers Moneyline (+180)
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