The Dallas Mavericks (4-3) and San Antonio Spurs (5-2) will clash in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Spurs are 11.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. The Spurs are -545 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Mavericks are listed as +411 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 4.
Mavericks vs Spurs Prediction
- Mavericks vs Spurs pick: Mavericks +11.5 (-115)
My Mavericks vs Spurs best bet is Dallas to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Mavericks vs Spurs Odds
- Mavericks vs Spurs spread: Spurs -11.5 (-105), Mavericks +11.5 (-115)
- Mavericks vs Spurs over/under: 226.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Mavericks vs Spurs moneyline: Mavericks +411, Spurs -545
Mavericks vs Spurs NBA Preview
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Kings — a team I wasn't even sure was going to win a game until December.
The primary reason for that loss is that they were playing without Kyrie Irving. This team is completely different when Kyrie is on the floor — with him, the Mavericks boast an elite 120.0 offensive rating; but when he sits, that number plummets to 107.4, which is quite literally "lose to the Kings" level bad.
Kyrie's ball-handling is essential; he helps them pass the ball more effectively (+6.9 in assist points) and gets them to the charity stripe (+5 free throw attempts per 100 possessions). Even their three-point volume goes up with him orchestrating the offense.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The Spurs are playing good defense, but their current roster construction leaves them undersized on the perimeter. Obviously, they have Victor Wembanyama roaming the paint, but his main assignment isn't going to be tracking perimeter wings.
Outside of Wemby, the Spurs don't offer much help defense, leaving them vulnerable to elite pick-and-roll ball handlers.
The Spurs are coming off a blowout win over the Jazz on Monday, where they pulled their starters early, meaning their rotation players only logged minutes in the mid-20s.
The Spurs won't be looking ahead to their Friday matchup with the Kings, so they will be fully engaged, but the mismatch on the perimeter is glaring.
Mavericks vs Spurs Pick, Betting Analysis
This line has already been bet down from 12.5 to 11.5, but the Spurs are still laying too many points.
This is a great bounce-back spot for Dallas following that brutal loss to Sacramento. You can essentially throw out the data from the previous Mavericks vs. Spurs matchup because neither Kyrie nor Cooper Flagg played in that game.
With Irving back in the lineup dictating the offense and exploiting San Antonio's undersized perimeter defenders in the pick-and-roll, Dallas is going to generate plenty of high-quality looks.
The Spurs' defense is sticky, but an 11.5-point spread gives the Mavericks a nice cushion.
Pick: Dallas Mavericks +11.5 (-115) — DraftKings
