We have an excellent slate of NBA games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions for Wednesday, November 4.
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NBA Predictions for Wednesday, November 4
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76ers vs. Pistons
There’s a significant gap between the moneyline and the spread for this game, mostly based on the books’ moving away from pick‘em lines. I’m pretty close on the spread projection (Pistons -2.1) and like Detroit on the matchup, so I will take the Pistons to win for an extra 10 cents, and I am fine with it up to -130.
The Sixers’ offense is still largely unstructured. They are still figuring out how to play together and what combinations work together.
Detroit tends to tear loosely constructed teams apart because their defense is so athletic and physical, even with Jalen Duren still out.
Joel Embiid missed the previous matchup between these teams when the Pistons won by 13, and he will certainly have his way with Paul Reed. But, Embiid doesn’t attack inside as much as he used to, so I don’t think he has an outlier performance beyond his normal excellence.
Then, there’s the Sixers’ transition attack; the Pistons have the third-best transition defense this season after being third last year as well.
The Sixers play up-tempo (9th in transition rate). Detroit will cut off the easy baskets and make them execute in the halfcourt.
Philly’s defense has been tough, but the Pistons are comfortable in close, ugly games. I think this game stays close and could go to overtime, but I do think Detroit gets it done.
Pick: Pistons Moneyline (-120)
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Hornets vs. Nets
This number suggests a rock fight, but it’s really going to be more like a trebuchet battle. It’s true, the Hornets and Nets don’t have great aim, but they do launch big swings of boulders from distance.
For the Hornets, Kon Knueppel and Coby White are probable, giving Charlotte back essentially shooting and creation for their style of play.
Charlotte ranks first in 3-point rate, the Nets are third. The Hornets have been 29th in 3-point percentage.
You know what helps with that? Getting Kon Kneuppel and Coby White back.
We’ve already seen this line move two points from open (212.5), and the injury report really does make that big of a difference.
Charlotte plays a slow pace but hasn’t had the guards to run. The Hornets will likely pick up the pace now that they are getting their full roster back.
The Hornets still might not be good enough to back a spread play on them here, but the bar has clearly been raised.
The Nets’ biggest offensive problem is at the rim where they are 30th in FG%. But Charlotte tends to play smaller with Moussa Diabate and doesn’t have great success in deterring rim attempts or percentage.
I make this total 219.5. I think the simple shot profiles mean this figure has to assume 109 points or more from both teams.
Pick: Over 213.5 (-115)
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Bucks vs. Celtics
The Bucks have been an unmitigated disaster defensively to start the year, and a big part of their failure is how they defend the three-point line.
My initial handicap was actually to find a Milwaukee player to hit corner threes because Boston allows the highest rate of corner threes in the league, but Kyle Kuzma was the only viable option and there is no chance I am putting my hard-earned money on a Kyle Kuzma prop.
So, I flipped the handicap to the other side of the floor. The Bucks are surrendering a staggeringly high rate of outside shots, currently ranking in the top five for overall opponent three-pointers allowed and in the top three for opponent corner threes allowed.
That plays perfectly into the hands of a Celtics offense engineered to spam high-value triples.
With Jayson Tatum currently listed as questionable for rest, the volume for Paul George only gets safer.
If Tatum happens to sit, George isn't going to magically transform into a ball-dominant isolation player; instead, Boston will utilize guys like Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to drive downhill, force the defense to collapse, and kick it out to George for spot-up opportunities.
You can find 3.5 at a plus-money price in the market right now, but I am trying to stay disciplined. I don't want to mess around with escalators for four or five threes, even though the ceiling should be there against Milwaukee's drop coverage scheme.
I am content paying the juice on the base number of 2.5 and walking away with a ticket that accurately reflects his volume floor.
Pick: Paul George Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
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Jazz vs. Pelicans
This handicap is more about the Pelicans than the Jazz. Utah has struggled on offense, bizarrely — and I’m not sure the Pelicans are the right team for them to get right against, but New Orleans is ranked 29th in defensive rating.
The Pelicans do have weapons, though, and hung offensively with Denver and Memphis within the last week.
Without Jusuf Nurkic and Jaren Jackson Jr., there’s almost nobody for the Jazz to use against Zion Williamson and Derik Queen, who should feast inside.
Utah is 28th in opponent free-throw rate; expect Williamson to have a big game, and I also like his props as a result.
The Jazz' bench units with Bryce Sensabaugh likely get loose and put up a bunch of three-pointers in this spot, and there’s a chance this is the game where Keyonte George finally gets going.
Some of this handicap assumes positive regression by the Utah offense, but the Jazz have faced the most difficult defensive strength of schedule so far, and the Pelicans just aren’t the same caliber.
Pick: Over 233.5 (-105)
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Timberwolves vs. Rockets
The betting market has completely lost the plot regarding Anthony Edwards's actual value to the point spread. I continue to run into battle every night arguing that Edwards, while a phenomenal talent, does not swing a betting line by this massive of a margin.
When Ant went down with his injury, the market freaked out and severely downgraded Minnesota's power rating. Yes, they took a bad loss to the Warriors, but they quickly bounced back to handle the Clippers and prove that their foundational floor remains high.
Even without Edwards, the Timberwolves are still elite on the defensive end, tough on the interior, and refuse to get bullied on the glass.
My personal projections have this game sitting at Houston -3.8. When both of these rosters are fully healthy, they are practically identical in my power ratings. Shifting this line all the way out to 8.5 is a drastic overreaction.
The Rockets are a very good team, but they have a distinct, frustrating tendency to self-sabotage and let inferior teams hang around when things are going well.
Houston is also dealing with significant rebounding issues tonight; Steven Adams remains out with a soleus strain, and Clint Capela is questionable.
If the Rockets lose their typical dominance on the offensive glass, it limits their margin for error. Houston is laying too many points here.
Pick: Timberwolves +8.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Suns
I don’t want to try and catch a falling knife, but the Suns’ defense has been so catastrophically bad I don’t know how to realistically ignore the probability that they are going to positively regress
The Suns are dead last in defensive rating and dead last in opponent 3-point FG%, a notoriously lucky and unstable metric. They allow too many threes, which is a huge problem with how Portland is shooting right now, but they’ve contested at the rim well.
Phoenix has had the 2nd-toughest defensive strength of schedule so far per DunksAndThrees.com.
But our outs come from Portland, whose defense is disciplined and sound. The Blazers play a deep drop coverage with Donovan Clingan, who dominates at the rim and on the boards, and should mitigate everything from Phoenix’s undersized frontcourt.
Devin Booker and Jalen Green have struggled with their pull-up jumpers, with Booker at 47 percent eFG and Green at a repulsive 34 percent.
The drop coverage that Portland plays leaves you little option. You have to make enough shots to get them to bring help or step up. The Suns have shown no ability to do so.
The under is 4-2 in Blazers games this season despite their having a top-10 offense. The over is 4-1 in Suns games, but their team total differential allowed figure has started to decrease. Phoenix's lone under came against this same Blazers team in the opener.
I project this total at 219.6 based on a hybrid of last year’s figures and this year’s. This year’s small sample of data is obviously more bullish on the over with the Blazers’ improved offense and the Suns’ defense falling off a cliff.
I think Portland’s defensive quality is sustainable and Phoenix’s defensive wretchedness less so. I want the under.
Pick: Under 227.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Clippers
Just a light sprinkle here based on the number.
Miami is in LA for the dreaded LA Nightlife Set. The Heat are a bit more immune to it, playing in Miami after all, but it’s still a distracting time for players, many of whom vacation or own homes in LA and have social engagements when they are there for extended time.
Then there’s this: the Clippers aren’t good, but they aren’t a complete train wreck. They are still well coached and possess some talent.
Since 2021, Ty Lue is 6-4 ATS against Erik Spoelstra.
The Heat's system of using fewer screens and trying to run the ball down the opposing team's throat probably won’t work against a Clippers squad that is more comfortable in unstructured environments.
I think Miami might still be overrated in the market, and I’ll take a shot on the Clippers adding to their frustrating start to the season.
Pick: Clippers Moneyline (+180)
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