Mavericks vs. Suns Odds

Chris Paul and Devin Booker vs. Luka Doncic. Expect fireworks.

This is an absolute line-setter.

What I mean by that is that the Mavericks and Suns are both expected to climb the ladder this season, and the outcome of this will probably shape some lines, or at least the betting action, in the short term. The Suns picked up early action, moving this from a pick ‘em to Suns -1 (and -1.5 some places).

Dallas Mavericks

Even with the Suns’ improvement, there’s very little reason to think the Mavericks would be underdogs if fully healthy, but they are not. Kristaps Porzingis will not play to start the season as he recovers from offseason surgery. That should mean that Suns center DeAndre Ayton will feast on the interior.

Notably, however, the Mavericks’ defense was only 1.1 points per 100 possessions better last season with Porzingis on the court. Ayton also can’t spread the floor to the perimeter, which makes it easier to put Boban Marjanovic on him for stretches.

Meanwhile, the big additions for the Mavericks in the offseason were to improve their perimeter defense. Josh Richardson and James Johnson will help contain the Suns on the edge. Chris Paul will likely feast, but anything to drag down the efficiency of Devin Booker goes a long way towards a Dallas win.

Luka Doncic, meanwhile, averaged 30 points per game vs. the Suns last year and 32 vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (with Chris Paul).

So we have a better chance of the Mavericks containing Booker, and no reason to think Doncic will be contained.

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Phoenix Suns

Bear in mind that the Suns hype is built off two things: their 8-0 performance in the bubble, with a team where many of the key players (Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre, Aron Baynes) are gone, and the addition of Paul. The Suns before the season suspension were 26-39. They were banged up throughout the year, but then, so are most teams.

So there’s a sub-.500 team who added Paul and lost several key pieces, at home, against a team that added key pieces without its second-best player.

I’m still not sure that the Mavericks should be dogs, here.

The Mavericks were favored in three of the four matchups last year. The exception was late in the bubble without Porzingis and Dwight Powell (who will play). It just doesn’t make sense that the Mavericks would go from a favorite to a dog with a better team, even without Porzingis.

Without Porzingis last season, the Mavericks went 12-9 straight up, 10-10-1 ATS, and 10-6 straight up, 8-7-1 as a 2-point dog, shorter, or a favorite.

Dallas had the best Offensive Rating in NBA history last season. It’s unlikely they’ll match that. But the Suns will have to put up a big number to keep up. They have firepower, but matching the waves of offense Dallas brings to the table is difficult.

The one win for the Mavericks vs. the Suns last year came with Ayton out due to his suspension. In the three games he played, he averaged 16 points and 9 boards per game and averaged a plus-14 in plus-minus. So expect a big game from Ayton.

Mavericks-Suns Pick

Again, I'm just not sure the Mavericks should be dogs here. I don't think they should be heavy favorites, the line's not radically off. But getting Dallas as a dog vs. a team that likely will not win 50 games is rare; it only happened three times last season.

I don't think Porzingis is that big of an absence, I don't think the Suns can keep up offensively. I'll be looking at Ayton's props and Dallas' team total, but the value is on Dallas.

Pick: Mavericks ML (+100)