Pistons vs. Warriors Odds & Picks: Back Road Dogs to Cover in Golden State
Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Rose (left) guards Steph Curry.
- The Golden State Warriors are 5.5-point favorites when they host the Detroit Pistons on Saturday night.
- There's always the risk that Steph Curry could light up the Pistons on the perimeter, but Joe Dellera thinks Detroit can cover this spread.
- Check out Dellera's full betting analysis and pick for Saturday's matchup below.
Pistons vs. Warriors Odds
|Moneyline||+180 / -225|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
The Pistons defeated the Lakers in convincing fashion on Thursday night and they look to build off that strong performance in Saturday night’s matchup against Steph Curry and the Warriors.
Can the Pistons defeat another Western Conference contender, or will the Warriors bounce back after their 21-point loss to the Suns?
The Pistons continue to be profitable underdogs against the spread this season, with their 10-6-1 ATS record as a dog this season. And when the opposing team is above .500, they are 7-2 ATS. Additionally, they are a league-best +3.5 points against the average Vegas spread, per Cleaning the Glass.
But will this translate here against the Warriors?
The Pistons have played much better basketball the past two weeks, and they might be turning a bit of a corner. To put it in perspective, the Pistons on the season are 20th in point differential per 100 possessions (-3.3), but over the past two weeks they are 11th (+2.3). They’ve taken strides both offensively and defensively and rank in the top 15 in both offense and defense over the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.
Is this sustainable? The data implies that it is.
Over the last two weeks, Detroit has the eighth-best eFG% (54.1%) and they actually could be shooting better. Their expected eFG% is fourth-best in the league (54.6%). One issue is their defense may be due for a bit of regression because they give up 3-point shots at the fifth-worst clip in the league.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have only been a favorite seven times this season and are 4-3 ATS. One of their wins? Against this Pistons team on Dec. 29, when they covered a 4.5-point spread in a 10-point victory.
The Warriors actually grade similarly to the Pistons on the season, they are 22nd in Point Differential (-3.5); however, they have not experienced as much of a bump over the last two weeks as they are 19th (-3.0), per Cleaning the Glass.
The Warriors have struggled on both sides of the ball, and rank 19th and 17th over the last two weeks in offense and defense, respectively. Despite having the best shooter in NBA history in Stephen Curry, the Warriors rank just 17th in eFG% (52.8%) and 18th in expected eFG% (53.8%).
They’ve struggled from 3-point range this season, and although they make the 12th-most 3s per game, that is more of a product of them playing at the third-fastest Pace considering they are just 20th in 3-point percentage, per NBA Advanced Stats.
The Pistons are coming off an impressive win against the Lakers, while the Warriors are 2-3 ATS and straight up over the last five games, with both wins coming against the hapless Timberwolves.
I don’t expect this game to have the same result as the last contest between these teams a month ago. Although the Warriors won by 10 points, the Pistons took 16 more shots than the Warriors but couldn’t get them to fall. Over the past two weeks, the Pistons have been a better team despite the disparity between their overall records.
There’s always the risk that Steph Curry could light up the Pistons on the perimeter, but I think the Pistons can cover this 5.5-point spread, and given their recent play this should be closer to 3.5 or 4.
Pick: Pistons +5.5