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Warriors vs. Pacers NBA Odds & Pick: Fade Indiana After Weeklong Hiatus

Warriors vs. Pacers NBA Odds & Pick: Fade Indiana After Weeklong Hiatus article feature image

David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry.

  • Coming off a win on Tuesday night, Golden State goes for another tonight in Indiana.
  • The Pacers haven't played for a week due to health protocols and weren't exactly playing well before the break.
  • Joe Dellera breaks down why he's backing the Warriors as road dogs on Wednesday night.

Warriors vs. Pacers Odds

Warriors Odds +2.5 
Pacers Odds -2.5 
Moneyline +110 / -135 
Over/Under 228.5 
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Tuesday night and via BetMGM.

The Golden StateWarriors won’t get any rest after a tough win over the New York Knicks on Tuesday night before they have to take on the Indiana Pacers, who have not played since last Wednesday.

We once again are faced with the old question: Would you rather be in a rhythm or well rested?

Let’s break down this matchup.

Golden State Warriors

One of the key takeaways from the Warriors’ win on Tuesday was that rookie James Wiseman returned from his wrist injury and played 16 minutes while scoring 14 points. He provides some much needed length for the Warriors, although it seems that head coach Steve Kerr will ease him back into the rotation.

The Warriors have played well without Wiseman, though, and one of the reasons for that has been the play of veteran duo Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.

When both Curry and Green are on the floor, the Warriors are +5.3 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

Golden State has been historically powerful on offense with Curry at the helm, but over the course of this season, its real strength has been on the defense. The Warriors enter this game with a 108.8 Defensive Rating, the fourth best in the league, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

The Warriors have held opponents to the fourth-lowest allowed eFG% and excel at limiting opponents from inside the 3-point arc, particularly at the rim. One issue: They allow opponents to shoot 38.4% from 3-point range, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

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Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have not played in a week but before their week off, they had been reeling a bit, going 4-6 over their past 10 games. They have not looked the same since the trade that sent Victor Oladipo to Houston because they are missing an impact wing without Caris LeVert.

The Pacers started the season taking more 3-point shots. As the season has settled in, though, they are only shooting 3-balls on 34.9% of their shot attempts and making them 37.1% of the time. Both of these marks are below league average.

The strength of their offense has actually been on putbacks (off offensive rebounds without a reset), where they score 125.9 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. Considering their size advantage in this matchup with Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner in the front court, this is something the Pacers will try to capitalize on.

On the defensive end, the Pacers limit-3 point attempts adequately; however, they allow opponents to shoot 38.2% from 3-point range, which is the eighth-worst mark in the league just behind the Warriors. When you’re playing Curry, that is never a good trend.

Warriors-Pacers Pick

This matchup is an interesting one. The Warriors are the sixth-worst defensive rebounding team in the league against a Pacers team that makes a living on putback plays. However, the Warriors defense is excellent at limiting opportunities at the rim, so the battle on the glass will be one to monitor as this game progresses.

The Warriors have played well since they’ve had more minutes together and found their rhythm. Despite the busier schedule, they seem stronger than Indiana over their past few games. Also, Indiana is a team that’s missing a piece right now, while the Warriors are getting one of their key players (Wiseman) back from injury.

This season, when favorites have gotten more than five days off they are just 2-5 against the spread, per Bet Labs. The Pacers fit this as a favorite with seven days off due to health and safety protocols.

I’m fading the Pacers after this long layoff and backing the Warriors as a road dog.

Pick: Warriors +2.5

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