Oklahoma City is just one win away from a return to the NBA Finals, while the Spurs are desperate to extend the series and live to fight another day. The good news for the Spurs is they'll be in front of their home fans in San Antonio for this pivotal Game 6.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Props for Thunder vs Spurs Game 6
- Top Scorer: Victor Wembanyama (+141)
- 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie (+450) / Alex Caruso (+690)
Thunder vs Spurs Top Scorer: Victor Wembanyama
Throughout this series, I've yet to stray away from the two superstars when picking each game's top scorer, and the results have clearly validated my actions. OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama finished neck and neck in usage rate during the regular season, with SGA ranking fourth at 33.4% and Wembanyama finishing fifth at 32.4%.
Both players help their teams in different ways, as SGA is known for finishing off possessions with either a high-quality shot or a trip to the free-throw line, while Wembanyama is one of just seven players in the league who have averaged 15 or more shots per game while shooting at least 50% from the floor.
The reality is that both teams simply don't have other players who match this level of efficiency, and in these high-pressure games, you need your superstars to be able to step up.
Considering SGA (31.1 PPG) finished second in scoring to Luka Doncic (33.5 PPG), it's no surprise that the Thunder guard has often been the favorite throughout this series for most points.
Wemby began the series with a 41-point effort in Game 1 and then dropped 33 points in Game 4. Both performances were game-highs resulting in Spurs victories.
Thus, the game plan for the Spurs should be pretty straightforward if they plan to force a Game 7. Just get the ball to Wembanyama and get the hell out of his way.
When Wembanyama attempted at least 20 shots in this series, the Spurs won. When he attempted fewer, they lost.
If the Spurs were to go out, then they'd better go down swinging. Win or lose, we should see Wembanyama get enough touches to finish as the top scorer.
Pick: Top Scorer: Victor Wembanyama (+141)
Thunder vs Spurs 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie / Alex Caruso
After a 0-for-5 performance from beyond the arc in Game 4, Julian Champagnie bounced back with a 4-for-8 effort in Game 5. The Spurs forward might've found his groove in this series after sinking just six of 31 attempts through the first four games.
Champagnie is shooting 37.6% from the perimeter in these playoffs, which aligns with his career mark of 37.5%.
While his current odds of +450 imply a 15.1% probability, my model has him as the 3-point leader in 22.3% of the simulations.
Another player we must keep an eye on as the 3-point leader is OKC's Alex Caruso. Caruso tied Champagnie with four 3-pointers in Game 5, yet he remains undervalued in the market at +690.
Let's not forget that Caruso posted a game-high with eight 3-pointers in the series opener. He's shooting an absurd 58.1% from distance through five games, and while it's natural to expect some regression, we can't understate the open looks he's getting with the Spurs looking to double up on SGA.
Caruso's book value is only 10.5%, while my model projects his odds should be closer to +550.
Given the potential for a return at around 5-to-1, it makes perfect sense to divide our action between the two players.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie (+450) / Alex Caruso (+690)
