NBA Odds & Picks: Betting Projections for Raptors vs. Wizards, Hornets vs. Grizzlies (Wednesday, Feb. 10)
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Rookie LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets.
- Looking for some value angles on Wednesday's nine-game NBA card?
- Raheem Palmer delivers his projections for tonight's games below.
For the 2020-2021 NBA season, I’ll be publishing my projections for every NBA game. Here’s what you’ll find in my model: projected team totals, projected combined totals, projected spreads for the matchup and the implied odds for the moneyline.
Note: My projections won’t be updated in real-time throughout the day, but Action’s PRO Projections tool is dynamic and will reflect the latest injury and lineup news.
I’ll also be highlighting some of the slate’s most intriguing matchups with in-depth, game-level analysis that goes beyond the numbers.
NBA Projections Model
NBA Odds & Picks
Although projections give us a solid baseline for what a number should be, it’s also important to handicap each game for things that the numbers can’t tell us.
Check out my analysis for tonight’s nine-game slate.
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards
This one is contingent on whether Norman Powell starts as OG Anunoby is once again questionable for this matchup. With Anunoby on the floor, the Toronto Raptors are -7.7 points per 100 possessions worse defensively and they’re also slightly worse offensively.
Norman Powell has started each of the past four games and has averaged 22.5 points on 51.7% shooting, while also making 3.5 threes a game with a three-point shooting percentage of 50 percent. For a team that’s shooting 42.5% of their attempts from behind the arc, having Powell in the starting lineup is big deal.
The Washington Wizards also struggle to defend from behind the arc, as they rank 26th in defensive 3-point field goal percentage, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 39.5% from behind the arc. This Wizards defense as a whole is one of the worst in the league, allowing 116.8 point per 100 possessions.
While the Raptors are eighth in Offensive Rating (114.3) in their non-garbage time minutes, this Offense has really hit its stride over the past two weeks scoring 121.4 points per 100 possessions.
The only teams better during that time frame are the Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers, which says a lot about how this Raptors offense has been rolling. The Raptors are in their fifth game of a six game road trip in which they’re scoring 125.0 points per 100 possessions.
However, their defense hasn’t been nearly as kind as they’re giving up 118.1 points per 100 possessions. They will be facing a Wizards team which has struggled to score as of recently, putting up less than 100 in three straight games.
This feels like a solid get right spot and with the Wizards playing the fastest pace in the league at 104 possessions, I like the over in this matchup.
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets
Oddsmakers just can’t make the total on these Brooklyn Nets games high enough. The Nets’ defensive struggles have been well documented and you can read my article regarding its defense and championship aspirations here.
One of the most interesting statistics I’ve read recently was that the Nets have allowed 16 30-point scorers this season, which is the most in the league. It’s possible we’ll see Domantas Sabonis put up a 30-point game here.
Nevertheless, they’re 19-7 to the over this season and have gone over in eight of their last 10 games. Even with a 12-of-28 shooting performance and a relatively slow paced game by Nets standards at 97.4 possessions, Tuesday’s game against the Detroit Pistons flew over the total of 228 points.
Now, they come back and face a Pacers team that is 14-10 to the over themselves and have gone over in three of their last five games.
Defensively, the Pacers are just 14th among NBA teams giving up 111.6 points per 100 possessions in their non-garbage time minutes. When you look at the last two weeks this Pacers team has given up 114.9 points per 100 possessions, which is 19th during this time period.
This should be a fast paced gamed as the Nets play the fifth fastest pace (102.09) and the Pacers play the 12th fastest (100.34).
With both of these offenses ranking in the top 10 in eFG and both of these offenses having the ability to score at will, I like the over 234 as my projections make this game 239 points.
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies
I don’t do this very often, but I have to fade my model in this spot as I don’t believe it’s properly capturing how bad this Grizzlies defense has been over the past two weeks. In this time frame, the Grizzlies are allowing 121.7 points per 100 possessions.
They’ve given up over 112 points in five out of their last six games and during this current four game losing streak they’ve given up 124.7 points per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies have particular struggled guarding the perimeter as they’re allowing teams to shoot 39.9% from behind the arc, dead last among NBA teams. Is this bad luck or just bad defense?
The Raptors made 20-of-37 threes (54.1%), the Pelicans were 15-of-33 threes (45.5%), the Rockets were 19-of-45 (42.2%) and the Pacers were 16-of-29 (55.2%). At some point, teams won’t shoot lights out from behind the arc, so much of this probably a product of variance, but you certainly don’t want to find yourself in the position of catching a falling knife trying to fade that regression either.
There also can’t be a worse spot to fade that regression against a Hornets team which is 12th in three point shooting frequency, shooting 38.3% percent of their field goal attempts from behind the arc while making 38.6% of them which is ninth in the NBA this season. Over the past seven games in which the Hornets are 5-2, they’re making 43.2% of their attempts.
This offense has been rolling as a whole, scoring 118.6 points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks. Despite how great the offense has been, it hasn’t truly slowed down anyone and without the Rockets abysmal seven-point fourth quarter in Monday’s game I think this total might be higher.
Ja Morant hasn’t hit his stride since returning from injury, as he’s averaging just 15.6 points on 41.7% shooting in the eight games since he’s been back. Nonetheless, I think this is a good bounce back spot. I’ll play the over here.