The NBA Play-In Tournament officially begins tonight — Tuesday, April 14. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified a total of six best bets spanning both of today's matchups, including picks for Heat vs. Hornets and Trail Blazers vs. Suns.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for tonight's play-in tournament games.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, April 14
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Heat vs. Hornets Over/Under Pick
Under 228.5
This entire matchup is dictated by the spot, which heavily favors Charlotte. The Hornets are likely going to force a slow pace with fewer overall possessions on their homecourt.
Miami already struggles to generate consistent offense in the half-court, and trying to execute against a set Hornets defense in a raucous building is a recipe for empty trips.
The Heat had a miserable time scoring the last time they visited Charlotte, a trend we've seen from plenty of opponents in the Hornets' home building this year.
Beyond the Xs-and-Os, there is a massive motivational disparity. Frankly, the Heat look dead on arrival. They are limping into the playoffs, and mentally, I am not sure how Bam Adebayo and the rest of this veteran core get jazzed up for this spot.
The Heat have gone through this exact routine the last two years, only to get completely dusted off by elite teams like Boston and Cleveland. They know exactly what they are looking at, and it is hard to find motivation after struggling down the stretch.
On the flip side, the Hornets are going to be fired up. This is a young squad playing in probably their most meaningful game ever, trying to advance and set up a highly anticipated seven-game series against the Pistons—a matchup with plenty of bad blood.
However, with that youth comes inevitable playoff nerves, which strongly leans toward a lower-scoring script. Between Miami’s half-court issues, their apparent lack of motivation, and Charlotte’s potential jitters, give me the Under at 228.5.
Pick: Under 228.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Suns Spread Prediction
By Sean Little
Suns -3.5
The key to this matchup is that the Trail Blazers turn the ball over at an alarming rate. They rank last in the NBA in turnover frequency by a wide margin.
The attitude of the Suns tonight is going to be to heavily pressure these guys — and in their own building, that's exactly what is going to happen.
The Blazers just flat-out give the ball up, and guess who is the third-best team in the league at turning opponents over? It's the Suns. Phoenix forces an average of 16.2 turnovers per game, and they are going to force Portland into a ton of live-ball mistakes.
Now, I will admit that Grayson Allen being questionable does make me a bit nervous. You never want to take a shooter off the floor in a playoff environment. Allen can also put the ball on the deck and hurt you in a variety of ways. Sometimes you lose a shooter that isn't a primary handler; sometimes you lose a handler who can't shoot. When you lose a guy who can do both, it always stings a bit more.
Despite that injury concern, I completely trust Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of this Suns roster at home. They are going to bring an edge and a level of defensive intensity that the young Blazers simply won't be able to match.
The sheer volume of extra possessions Phoenix generates off turnovers is going to be the difference-maker. Even though it might be a tight game with a shorter total, the math and the matchup heavily favor Phoenix. I will gladly lay the 3.5 points with the Suns.
Pick: Suns -3.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Hornets Spread Bet
Hornets -5.5
I think we might be getting the smallest of discounts on the Hornets in this spot simply because of the way they ended the regular season. Going 1-2 in their final three games definitely leaves a sour taste in people’s mouths.
However, when you look at the bigger picture, the gap between these two teams is pretty significant.
If you zoom out and look at the last 60 days of the schedule, the Hornets rank second in the NBA with an elite +11.5 net rating. Over that same stretch, the Heat are essentially average, sitting at 16th with a +2.1 net rating.
Now, I don’t think the true talent gap between these rosters is quite that wide, but I do think those 60-day metrics tell a much more accurate story than what we’ve seen in the most recent three-game sample size.
Furthermore, this is a phenomenal matchup for Charlotte from a schematic perspective. The Hornets are a great rebounding team across the board, whereas Miami has a tendency to fall in love with the three-point shot—which is inherently a lower-percentage look.
Charlotte has absolutely dominated the glass in this head-to-head matchup recently. In their last two meetings against Miami—which were games that Moussa Diabaté started—Charlotte pulled down a staggering 33% and 30% of the available offensive rebounds.
By dominating the offensive glass, the Hornets were able to generate an above-average number of second-chance points off of their own misses. If Miami isn’t shooting lights-out from three-point range tonight, I think this game gets away from them very quickly.
Pick: Hornets -5.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Suns Total Prediction
Under 217.5
I really have no opinion on the side for this matchup, but I do have a play on the total. I love the under in this spot. We’ve already discussed the broader historical patterns of under bets hitting in Play-In Tournament games, but let's add some actual basketball reasoning to this specific handicap.
When you look at the data, the Trail Blazers are the third-worst three-point shooting team in the NBA. The only two teams with a worse percentage are the Nets and the Kings, and both of their seasons are already over.
Therefore, the Trail Blazers are officially the worst shooting team left playing. Jerami Grant might return for this game, but that doesn't move the needle for me—he is just another construction worker laying bricks for Portland right now.
Because they are so inefficient from deep, the Blazers are heavily reliant on getting to the free-throw line. However, playing an away game in the Play-In Tournament historically yields a much tighter whistle, which neutralizes their primary method of scoring.
On the Phoenix side, they played a meaningless game against the Lakers on Friday, yet they still started Grayson Allen. He played just 13 minutes before exiting with a hamstring injury, and the early market movement toward the under heavily suggests that he is not going to suit up tonight.
Losing Allen is massive; unlike Portland's bricklayers, Allen is a seamstress working with silk. He is the Suns' best floor-spacer and a sneaky secondary playmaker who can put the ball on the deck.
If Allen is out, the Suns will likely replace him with more minutes for Jordan Goodwin and heavier offensive usage for Dillon Brooks.
Even though Brooks has had an efficient year, his offense late in the shot clock often devolves into heavy isolation possessions, which naturally bogs down the overall pace.
Between the tighter playoff whistle hurting Portland, their horrific perimeter shooting, and the Suns losing their best shooter, this has all the makings of a low-scoring grind. I played this at Under 217.5, and I think anything down to that number is actionable.
Pick: Under 217.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Hornets Player Prop Pick
Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 3.5 Rebounds
Ryan Kalkbrenner has been incredibly reliable on the glass down the stretch of his rookie campaign, securing four or more rebounds in five of his last six contests. But what makes this spot particularly appealing is the specific matchup against Miami.
As we’ve seen all year, this is not your older brother's Miami Heat. They have completely revolutionized their offensive identity this season, transforming into a track team that ranks first in the NBA in pace.
From a rebounding perspective, this up-tempo game script is exactly what we want to see when backing a center's rebounding over.
The math here is simple: a faster pace dictates more total possessions, which leads to more overall field goal attempts. More shots inevitably mean more missed shots, creating a much higher volume of available rebounds on both ends of the floor.
While the Hornets might prefer to slow things down, Miami's insistence on running will force a chaotic tempo at times, leading to quick, erratic shots early in the shot clock.
Kalkbrenner, with his massive 7-foot-1 frame, will be positioned perfectly to clean up the defensive glass. He possesses a distinct size advantage in the paint and the interior instincts to swallow up those misses.
Getting +130 odds on a rebounding total as low as 3.5 is a phenomenal value for a big man who has consistently cleared this hurdle in recent weeks. Our Action PRO models have Kalkbrenner slated for 4.1 rebounds tonight.
Pick: Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 3.5 Rebounds (+130)
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Trail Blazers vs. Suns Player Prop Bet
Robert Williams Over 6.5 Rebounds
Despite playing in a frontcourt rotation that manages his minutes carefully, Robert Williams has become a model of efficiency for the Blazers.
Williams has recorded over 6.5 rebounds in five of his last six games, showing a consistent ability to clear this hurdle regardless of his total time on the court.
Most notably, he closed out the regular season with a pair of big performances on the boards, recording back-to-back 10-rebound games against the Clippers and Kings.
The matchup against the Suns presents a compelling interior battle. Phoenix recently overhauled its frontcourt by acquiring Mark Williams to anchor the middle, and while the Suns have improved to 10th in defensive rating this season, they remain vulnerable to high-motor offensive rebounders.
Williams excels in this area, ranking near the top of the league in offensive rebounding percentage during his limited 17-minute bursts. Action PRO projects Williams for 7.8 rebounds in tonight's game.
Pick: Robert Williams Over 6.5 Rebounds (-102)
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