The Miami Heat (43-39) and Charlotte Hornets (44-38) will square off in the first game of the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Hornets are 5.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Hornets -5.5), with the over/under set at 228 total points. Charlotte is a -215 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Hornets predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, April 14.
Heat vs Hornets Prediction, Picks
- Heat vs Hornets picks: Hornets -5.5, Over 228.5
My Heat vs Hornets best bets are on Charlotte to cover the spread (-5.5) and the game to go over 228.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Heat vs Hornets Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 228.5 -108o / -112u | +180 |
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 228.5 -108o / -112u | -215 |
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Heat vs Hornets NBA Play-In Tournament Preview
The Hornets are in unfamiliar territory, facing a game with real stakes. The Heat, on the other hand, are unbelievably familiar with the play-in tournament — it’s practically their second home.
One game, one winner; one team moves on for a chance to claim the 8-seed. Let's dig into tonight's 9-vs-10 play-in game in the East.
Nikola Jovic and Pelle Larson are out for the Heat. The biggest impact players in this matchup so far:
- Bam Adebayo: Miami is +22.4 when Bam plays against Charlotte this season, with a sterling 108.9 defensive rating.
- Charlotte Bench: The Hornets were +13.8 this season against Miami with Coby White on the floor; +13.7 with the departed Collin Sexton; and +7.2 with Grant Williams on the court vs. Miami. It’s notable that White and Williams weren’t available until the matchups later in the season matchups when the Hornets found their footing.
- Miami lost its minutes with both Tyler Herro and Norman Powell on the floor, but won them with Jaime Jaquez on court this season — the presumptive Sixth Man of the Year.
The Heat want to run. Their entire system is predicated on fast-pace, no screens, get downhill, get a shot up, and get back to set your defense.
The Hornets' transition offense is middle of the pack, and they did an "ok" job against Miami this year.
Miami doesn’t really maximize its offense. On top of not using screens, resulting in a lot of iso-situations, the Heat don’t really get up a high enough volume of three-pointers.
This is where Charlotte is best. The Hornets are weak at defending the rim, but they take the 2nd-most three-pointers and make them at the 3rd-highest clip — while also allowing the 11th-lowest three-point rate. They beat you with math.
Miami doesn’t have a consistent solve for that, and over the past four weeks, the Heat's defense has fallen off a cliff.
There’s a pattern here: the Heat’s offensive consultant, Noah LaRoche, also coached the Grizzlies last year, who were a top-12 defense for the first half of the year and then fell off a similar cliff. The pace that Miami plays at takes its toll on you.
Heat vs Hornets Predictions, Betting Analysis
Hornets -5.5
I project this line at Hornets -6, so I’m not slamming it, but I will bet Charlotte to advance.
Home teams in the play-in tournament tend to succeed — and with homecourt advantage in Charlotte's favor, plus Miami’s late-season collapse, I like the Hornets to win and cover the spread tonight.
Here are a few more trends:
- Teams who are in the play-in, at home, who missed the playoffs last season (Charlotte), are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS.
- The Hornets are 16-9 ATS when they are behind or lost the season series to the opponent.
- The Heat are a shocking 8-14 SU and ATS when Herro and Powell both play, including their blowout loss to the Hornets; Miami’s only loss to Charlotte this season.
Over 228.5
You are supposed to play Overs in the play-in tournament — but I’m unconvinced this is the spot.
Miami is the fastest offensive team in the league by a crazy margin. Charlotte is the 2nd-slowest team.
When Herro and Powell play together, the defense falls apart. The Over is 15-7 in games when those two play together.
The Over is 5-2 in Hornets' games when the opponent’s pace is 105 or faster — which is the case for Miami this season.
The Hornets' offense is just too efficient to give that many possessions too, even if they slow it down. I project this total at 229 and will make a small contrarian play on the Over.
Heat vs Hornets Best Bets
- Hornets -5.5 (-110)
- Over 228.5 (-110)
