Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Plays for Tuesday Night, Starring Carmelo Anthony (April 27)

Some days the Props Tool is just completely fading a few players. Load up the tool and the top four or five plays for one team are all unders for the same player. In those scenarios, it's important to decipher whether a combo prop is the right play or if it's best to isolate one statistic.

That's the decision we face Tuesday with three guys we're playing, and we'll play one combo, but isolate a particular stat for two others.

For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Carmelo Anthony — Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

The Portland Trail Blazers are starting to run out of answers. They have lost five games in a row and nine of their last 11, and that's just as the team is finally getting healthy. CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkić are back, with Norman Powell slotting in nicely as well. However, the Blazers just appear to be out of steam.

One man they're not turning to for answers? Veteran Carmelo Anthony.

As McCollum and Powell slot in and take up huge usage and shots — much more efficient usage and shots — there just hasn't been as much left forAnthony and his role has quickly faded.

Since Powell joined the lineup, Anthony's minutes have fallen off to just 22.4 minutes per game in 16 outings, and his numbers have fallen along with the minutes drop. He's down to just 11.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.1 assist per game during that stretch.

It's not that Anthony isn't getting shots up. He's still at 11.1 field goal attempts per game, almost one every two minutes on the court. He's not in a cold shooting stretch from deep either, hitting 39% in that stretch. It's just that 22 minutes really isn't enough to do a ton of damage, no matter how much you're chucking.

Anthony's median outcome during this stretch is 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.0 assist, right around his average. Of course, he's covered this combo line with points alone three times during this stretch, and that'll always be a threat with a guy like him.

However, that's why I like playing the combo prop. In case the scoring is up a bit, it gives us a bit of extra potential cushion since Anthony rarely posts big rebounding or assist numbers. The points line at 12.5 looks good too, but since Anthony has only gone over five rebounds plus assists three times in 16 games, we may as well add those in as well.

It's time to fade the old man at his reduced minutes. Our Props Tool gives this one a 22% edge. I'll play to -135 odds.

Tristan Thompson — Under 10.5 Points (+104)

The Celtics remain quite shorthanded. Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are out, plus Robert Williams is questionable again. Williams has missed the last six games, but his absence here might make it tempting to play a Thompson over or at least to avoid an under like this number.

However, even with Williams out the last six games, Thompson's numbers haven't been anything special. His minutes are up to 28.6 per game, but he's averaging just 8.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game in that span.

I considered playing another combo line here, but with Thompson's minutes up, that makes it easier for him to have a randomly high line rebounding or assisting. Thompson has always been a terrific rebounder, so double digits there are always in play, and he did have five assists in his first game without Williams during this stretch.

Instead, I'll just fade Thompson's scoring. We project him at 8.4 points, right at his average during this stretch even with the minutes up, and he's gone under 10.5 points in four of these six games and nine of his last 11 overall, hitting the under 82% of the time over these last 11 games. Heck, his season high is 17 points, and he's only gone over 14 twice all year, so it's a pretty low ceiling.

Boston will have scoring available with Walker and Tatum out, but Thompson isn't the sort of guy to pick up that scoring load. I'll fade the under at plus juice and play to -115 if needed.

Caris LeVert — Under 6.5 Assists (-160)

Caris LeVert is healthy and back on the basketball court, and boy are the Indiana Pacers grateful. They are missing T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, so they're leaning heavily on just about anyone else.

LeVert is averaging 18.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists a game for the Pacers, and he's now played 24 games for Indiana. He hasn't really found his shooting boots yet, but he's quickly become a reliable wing starter for a team desperate for that very thing.

Even so, LeVert isn't hitting the typical high highs he's had sometimes in the past, even in these super shorthanded games. There are occasional scoring outbursts, mostly just volume plays, and it wouldn't be a shock to see one of those tonight against Portland's soft defense.

Our Props Tool likes pretty much all the LeVert unders, but I'm skipping the points and rebounds and honing in on his passing. I'm just not sure why this number is so high, even with Sabonis out. LeVert has only gone over 6.5 assists twice for the Pacers. That's two out of 24 games, meaning he's gone under this line 92% of the time.

Some books are offering plus juice to go under 5.5 assists. We project LeVert at 4.7 assists so those look like good plays too. However, this is about as close to a sure thing as we get these days, so I'll drink the juice at -160 and would play under 6.5 as high as -200 while it's available.