NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Jazz Bets for Utah’s Game Against the Wizards (Monday, April 12)

The Utah Jazz continue to be scorching hot. The Jazz have won 11 of their last 13 games, with seven of those wins coming by at least 16 points. And with the rapidly fading Washington Wizards up next, it would be a surprise to see that trend go any other direction on Monday night.

The Jazz won't be at full mast though. Both Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson are out for this one, which leaves a lot more offense for the other Jazz regulars — namely Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles. Today, we'll play three Jazz props, and if your book allows single-game parlays, this is a great opportunity to go for a big win that way too.

Tonight's Jazz parlay plays at +575. I'll play the three props individually but also sprinkle a small portion on the trifecta SGP too.

For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Bojan Bogdanovic, over 15.5 points (-105)

The Jazz are a relatively balanced scoring team, for the most part. Donovan Mitchell leads the team, of course, at 26.3 points per game. But after Spida, there are five more Jazz players between 11.8 and 17.2 PPG. That's part of what has made Utah so dangerous this year. The Jazz just have so many shooters who can beat you any given night.

At the top of that list of five scorers, though, are Jordan Clarkson (17.2 PPG) and Mike Conley (16.6 PPG). That's a whopping 33.8 PPG missing from Utah's lineup tonight, and it comes from 27.5 field goal attempts per game. That means a whole lot of extra shots and points up for grabs.

And who's the next scorer on the list after Clarkson and Conley? Why, it's Bojan Bogdanovic, of course! Bogey can be a streaky scorer. He has five games this season with 28 or more points but five others with five or fewer. But nearly half of Bogdanovic's games fall between 15 and 20 points. That's 20 of Bogey's 53 games, even though his median outcome is just 15 points, on the low end of that frame.

Expect a higher floor tonight for Bogdanovic with Utah shorthanded, which shifts our expectations upward. The Jazz have been bombing threes this year, and more attempts for Bogdanovic have led to his higher scoring outputs this season. All the better that it's a slight revenge spot against the Wizards, who don't exactly offer a ton of defense.

Remember, Bogdanovic averages 14.7 PPG this year, and most of those games are at full strength. I don't think the books have adjusted this line enough with nearly 34 PPG missing from Utah. That raises Bogey's floor, and with his median outcome already in range of an over at 15 points, I like our chances.

Our Props Tool likes this best of the three Jazz props, projecting Bogdanovic at 19.8 points and giving us more than a 21% edge in our favor. I'll play to -135.

Joe Ingles, over 5.5 assists (+115)

Points aren't the only thing missing from the Jazz offense tonight. Conley and Clarkson are the team's two point guards. And although Utah's offense is pretty egalitarian and lets everyone share the rock, that's still a lot more time on the ball for other Jazz players tonight. Conley and Clarkson are responsible for 7.3 assists per game combined. Considering Utah averages 23.4 APG as a team, that's nearly a third of the team's assists up for grabs.

I think Joe Ingles is the most likely beneficiary. Ingles is averaging 4.1 assists per game this season. He's a crafty passer and a strong candidate for Sixth Man of the Year, and Utah has often continued to bring him off the bench in his natural role, even with Conley or Clarkson out.

Ingles has played 12 games this season with either Conley or Clarkson missing, and he's averaging 5.0 APG in those games. He's had at least five dimes in nine of those 12 games (75%) and gone over 5.5 in half of them. Compare that to games when Ingles plays with both Clarkson and Conley. Ingles has played 37 such games this season and averages only 3.9 APG in them, a significant drop from games with one of them sidelined.

A couple other things in our favor: First, even those 12 shorthanded games with more Ingles passing have only ever come with either Conley or Clarkson missing. Today is his first time all season playing without both of them, so if his APG rises by more than one dime per game without one, it should rise even more without both. And second, Clarkson's absence may be even more important than Conley's here since it leaves Ingles on his own running the bench unit with far more time on the ball. Ingles has averaged 6.0 APG in games without Clarkson this season.

Ingles has only gone over 5.5 assists 17 times in 49 games this season, but six of those times have come in the 12 games with a missing Jazz point guard. We project him at 6.9 dimes tonight with Utah missing both point guards, so I love this at even odds and would play to -125.

Donovan Mitchell, under 4.5 threes (-155)

Look, this is just an absurdly high line. Sometimes it really does come down to that. Five 3-pointers is just a whole lot to ask from anyone. It's too much to ask.

Yes, of course it stands to reason that Donovan Mitchell's production should rise without Conley and Clarkson, just like Bogdanovic's and Ingles'. And sure enough, Mitchell is scoring a whopping 31.0 PPG in games without either of his point guard running mates this season. That's up a long ways from 24.8 PPG in games where both Clarkson and Conley play.

It's not really coming from behind the arc, though. Spida is averaging 3.5 made 3s per game in those 12 without Clarkson or Conley, versus 3.3 without them. His attempts are up slightly, from 8.5 per game with both PGs to 9.3 without one of them. It's a slight increase, but it's clearly not responsible for the big boost in scoring Mitchell is finding. That has come instead from more driving and more trips to the free-throw line. Those are the real areas Mitchell is increasing when his team is missing a fellow handler.

We know how streaky a shooter Mitchell can be, and when he gets hot, he gets really hot. Both he and Bogdanovic have the potential to make our props feel very silly today if they go the wrong way. But even as awesome as Mitchell has been this season, he's still gone over 4.5 threes in 13 games this season, hitting the under 74% of the time. His median outcome is just three 3s per game, and he's actually more likely statistically to have two or fewer 3s than five or more.

Really, this is not a bet on Conley or Clarkson's absence as much as simply a bet against random luck. In Mitchell's 13 games this season with five or more 3s, he's shot 60% or better behind the arc in all but two of them. It's not that he shot more times — he just got hot.

We can't do anything about that, but we can bet on the percentages, and Mitchell is still at 38.5% on the season. That's below the percentage he's shot in every single one of his overs. Let's hope this isn't one of those hot nights and bet on the math here. With Mitchell hitting the under 74% of the time, that would suggest this is playable as high as almost -300, so I won't be afraid of the juice at about half of that here.

Play the odds and don't worry about the missing point guards on this one. We project Mitchell at 3.4 made 3s, right around his typical production, so let's hope he doesn't get hot and get two more. I'll play to -185 and hope the Jazz increase their production elsewhere and hit our Single Game Parlay for the win.