NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Value on RJ Barrett and Reggie Jackson Tuesday (March 22)
Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Reggie Jackson #1 of the LA Clippers.
Tonight's NBA schedule isn't massive by any stretch, but there are some significant injuries looming over Tuesday's four-game slate. That usually means there's an opportunity to find value elsewhere, and that fact is very apparent in one game specifically.
Using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, I have found two prop bets that I like tonight, along with the book giving the most value.
Let's get right to it.
NBA Player Props & Picks
RJ Barrett, Over 4.5 Assists (-113)
|Hawks vs. Knicks||Hawk -3|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
There haven't been many bright spots this season for the Knicks who look destined to go from the playoffs last season to the draft lottery in about two weeks. The player whom they expected to be the face of their franchise, Julius Randle, has been the face of their disappointing campaign with a huge drop off in play and attitude.
Randle has been ruled out ahead of Tuesday's game against the Hawks with a quad injury, which paves the way for the brightest spot this season: RJ Barrett. The former No. 3 overall pick had a slow start but truly turned a corner in the new year.
Barrett has started to show flashes of a scorer who can be a playmaker with the right guys around him. Over his last 30 games, Barrett is averaging 24 points per game and 3.6 assists, and over his past 15 games, those numbers are up to 25.9 and 4.1 respectively.
The Knicks are finally running their offense through Barrett more, and the results are pretty good. According to our FantasyLabs On/Off tool, when Barrett and Randle share the floor, Barrett's assist percentage is 12.6%, but that number jumps significantly to 23.7% when Randle is off the floor.
With Randle out of the lineup and Obi Toppin likely taking his spot in the lineup, the floor should have much more space for Barrett to drive and kick out to shooters, toss up lobs and get out and run.
When Barrett has the ball, he utilizes his bigs a ton after drawing the defense. Since the All-Star break, Mitchell Robinson has 15 attempts off 26 passes from Barrett and Toppin has 12 attempts off 18 passes.
Barrett has cleared this line just 13 times this season, but 10 of those games have come in 2022, which further points to a change in his approach and him taking on a different role.
I like Barrett to go over this 4.5 line and would bet this line up to -120.
Reggie Jackson, Over 18.5 Points (-113)
|Clippers vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -6.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
Reggie Jackson has been boom-or-bust of late, but when he's on, he can really put up some points. This matchup against the Nuggets is intriguing because they are one of the worst defenses in the NBA against point guards, allowing opposing floor generals to average 23.6 points, per Hashtag Basketball.
Jackson also had one of his best games of the season against the Nuggets with 28 points and 12 assists, though it was overshadowed by a 49-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.
Defensively, the Nuggets struggle to protect the rim this season, and opponents are shooting 68.3% against them in that spot, which ranks 29th in the league per Cleaning the Glass. They rank 26th at defending the short mid-range area (between 4-14 feet), and opponents shoot 44.5% against the Nuggets in that spot.
For the season, Jackson has been among the most consistent players at driving to the basket (10.8 drives per game) and that number has gone up (12.5) since the All-Star break. And he's good enough in the short mid-range to make the Nuggets' defense pay if their small guards can't contain him.
Jackson should get the necessary minutes to hit this number unless this game turns into a blowout, but after getting shellacked by the Utah Jazz Friday and having four days off, I expect the Clippers and Jackson to play with more urgency. I would also play this prop to -120.