Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: How to Bet Kelly Olynyk vs. Warriors (Feb. 17)
Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kelly Olynyk.
We introduced you to combo props in this space yesterday, and even though we didn’t hit on a big Al Horford game, we’re going back to the well today.
Most books offer props in points, rebounds, and assists, but more and more of them are also offering combo props: points + rebounds (PR), points + assists (PA), or the trio PRA. You can also play rebounds + assists (RA) in some places or even get wild with blocks + steals. Combo props are a good way to go all-in for or against a player if you like them in a particular spot.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs player prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Seth Curry Over 17.5 PTS + REB + AST (-105)
|Rockets vs. 76ers||76ers -10.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Sometimes, you just have to trust our props tool.
Three of the top four plays on the board are Seth Curry overs. We like Curry over 2.5 assists best, projecting him at 3.0 dimes and getting plus juice on that one.
Over 12.5 points is the next best prop with a clean 15.0 points projected. The rebounding line looks about right at 2.5, but our tool likes the over there too since we project him at 2.4 and he’s catching around +150 juice at most books on that number.
Add it all up and we’re projecting Curry to put up 20.4 points, rebounds, and assists combined, which gives us a full margin of three on this combo PRA line at BetMGM, and at almost even odds.
On the season, Curry is averaging 12.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, so that’s 17.1 and puts him right at this line at the books. But those averages underrate Curry because he’s had a few games with low minutes because of injury and working his way back. Before the injury, Curry was playing 30 minutes per game and averaging 17.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over those first eight games.
It looks like that version is finally starting to reappear. Curry’s minutes are way up to 33.9 over the past four and his scoring punch has returned too, to 14.5 per game over that stretch.
I’ll trust the props tool and play another good Curry game as the perfect off-ball shooter in this Sixers system. I’ll play to -130.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
|Pacers vs. Timberwolves||Pacers -5.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Karl-Anthony Towns has always been an outstanding rebounder. He averages 11.7 rebounds per game for his career and averaged more than 12 rebounds in each of his past three healthy seasons. For his career, Towns has recorded double-digit rebounds in a whopping 73.8% of his games, and that’s all we need to hit an over here.
Towns has played just eight games this season, and it looks like the Wolves are limiting his minutes a bit after his return from a long bout with COVID. He’s averaging 32.1 minutes since returning, and his rebounds are down a bit to 8.8 per game with a single-digit output in two of the last three. That’s not great, but it’s giving us the opportunity to bet this line.
We project Towns at 11.9 rebounds, which is basically the same expectation you could’ve had for Towns just about any game of his career to this point. That’s at 34.6 projected minutes, though, which I do think is a bit ambitious, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. But KAT averages one rebound every 2.9 minutes on the court for his career, so we only need 28 minutes to get to an over here.
This line is just straight up disrespectful. I’m grabbing the over 9.5 as high as -150 before the books bump this one over double digits like they should.
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Kelly Olynyk, Over 14.5 Pts + Reb (-120)
|Heat vs. Warriors||Warriors -1.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Miami Heat fans hate Kelly Olynyk.
I discovered this fact by accident when I noticed Olynyk’s minutes randomly dropped to a season-low 14.4 his last time out. There appears to be no real reason other than the fact that Olynyk runs hot and cold. But if you trust the rest of the internet, it’s because Olynyk is quite possibly the worst human being to ever don a Miami Heat uniform.
Erik Spoelstra apparently does not agree with the fans. He’s started KO in all but four of his appearances this season and typically gives him pretty good minutes as a stretch four who opens up this offense and gives them some badly needed shooting and spacing. Some teams have the personnel to punish Olynyk defensively, and he can be quite the negative if the shots aren’t falling, but I’m not sure the Warriors are one of those teams.
Olynyk has played at least 25 minutes in exactly half of his games this season. And in those 13 games, he’s recorded at least 15 points and rebounds combined in all but one of them. He’s going to hit a few shots if he’s out there, and he’s had some nice rebounding games too.
Our projections are not worried about the low minutes from Olynyk’s last time out. Miami remains shorthanded, and Spoelstra has relied on Olynyk all season. Even counting that awful last time out, Olynyk is playing 25.4 minutes per game over the last 10 Heat games, with 10.6 points and 6.6 rebounds helping him hit this combo prop over in eight of the 10 games.
This is simply a minutes play. We project Olynyk at 29 minutes, and if he gets even close to that, he should get enough production to hit an over. And hey, if Olynyk rides the pine again much of the game and costs us an over? At least we know a bunch of folks on the internet we can be mad at Olynyk with.
Our Props Tool likes the over on both points and rebounds, so if you can only play one, grab the better juice, which looks like his boards. I’ll play the combo over where it’s available as high as -140.