Suns vs. Clippers Game 4 Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Favorite Plays for Saturday’s NBA Playoffs, Including Paul George’s Scoring Prowess (June 26)
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George fist bumps Clippers owner Steve Ballmer after LA’s Game 3 win over Phoenix.
- Saturday's Suns-Clippers matchup has plenty of intrigue as LA looks to even the series.
- Dan Titus looks at the game from a player prop perspective, with three bets to recommend.
- Continue reading for plays on Terance Mann, Paul George and more.
Friday night’s Eastern Conference Finals matchup ended in a blowout, with the Bucks tying up the series at 1-1 with a victory over the Hawks. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way for Milwaukee, delivering 25 points (11-of-18 FG) with nine rebounds and six assists across 29 minutes of action. It wasn’t a good night for Hawks backers, as Trae Young and John Collins were the only Hawks starters to hit double-figures. They also sported a combined plus/minus of -62.
Yeah, not their best performance. The series will continue on Sunday with Game 3 in Atlanta, but Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals tips off a 9 p.m. ET on Saturday night before we get too far ahead.
The Suns visit the Clippers in what’s become a pivotal game for both teams. Phoenix leads the series 2-1, but the Clippers have proven capable of coming back from 0-2 deficits. There’s plenty at stake for Saturday’s contest with another home game for the Clippers to even the score at two games apiece.
Los Angeles is a one-point underdog at home, with the game total sliding since open from 220.5 to 218.5. The Suns shot 39.8% from the field in Game 3, so expect Phoenix to have better results shooting the ball with the opportunity to go up 3-1 in the series.
For today’s props, I’m entrusting Jae Crowder to dish out a pair of assists along with Terance Mann to hit his rebounds + assists combo market. Lastly, I’m expecting Paul George to pace the Clippers in scoring with at least 29 points.
Let’s get it!
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jae Crowder over 1.5 Assists (+110)
|Suns vs. Clippers||Clippers +1|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | ESPN|
Jae Crowder had a rough go on Thursday night, fouling out with nine points (3-of-7 FG), six rebounds, and zero assists. That doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in betting his assists line, but consider Game 3 a one-off.
Crowder averaged 2.1 assists per game in the regular season. His assist numbers dipped slightly to 1.8 per game in the playoffs, but with his current assist line set at 1.5 and plus odds, this is good value relative to his track record.
The nine-year veteran cleared 1.5 assists in two of the first three games in the Western Conference Finals. In Game 1, he dished out two assists, followed by three in Game 2. Despite not registering an assist in Game 3, he’s averaging 3.0 potential assists per game thus far versus the Clippers.
Of the 11 starting forwards remaining in the Conference Finals, Crowder is averaging the sixth-most passes per game with 35.0. Most of his assists went to Deandre Ayton (9) and Devin Booker (6) this postseason, so expect him to keep feeding Ayton as he’s been dominating the paint this series (shooting 74%).
Including regular-season matchups, Crowder has surpassed 1.5 assists in five of his last six games versus the Clippers. And he’s been even more reliable as a distributor after a loss. According to Fansure, Crowder has exceeded 1.5 assists in 13 of his last 14 games after a loss. Over that span, he’s averaging 2.8 assists per game.
Our Action Labs projections tool has Crowder handing out 2.1 assists in Game 4. The Suns are in a strong position to extend the series lead to 3-1. And despite fouling out in under 30 minutes in Game 3, the Marquette alum should see plenty of minutes to rack up at least a pair of assists.
I’m betting the over on Crowder’s 1.5 assist market as the Suns should shoot closer to their 48.1% per-game average in the playoffs.
Terance Mann over 5.5 Rebounds + Assists (+104)
Terance Mann needs more minutes. Period. The second-year pro is averaging 28.1 minutes over the last five games. However, it’s clear that when Mann plays more than 30 minutes, the Clippers perform well. That’s not to say that LA is better off without Kawhi Leonard, but when allowed to shine, Mann’s been a valuable asset for the Clippers.
Throughout the regular season and postseason, the Clippers are 9-4 when Mann sees at least 30 minutes. With Marcus Morris Sr. still hobbled (knee) and Mann going off yet again in the third quarter of Game 3, expect Mann to become a mainstay in LA’s lineup.
Our FantasyLabs tool projects Mann will get 29.6 minutes tonight. With his minutes hovering around 30, Mann finds himself in a good spot to collect more than 5.5 rebounds + assists.
When Mann played 20-29 minutes this season, he averaged a total of 6.3 rebounds + assists. His combo market jumps up to 10 rebounds + assists with 30-39 minutes of playing time as well. In another must-win game for Los Angeles, Ty Lue appears to have finally turned the corner in keeping Mann on the floor.
Mann got the start in place of Morris in Game 3, and his play will keep him there. In 32 minutes of action, Mann dropped 12 points, five rebounds, and two assists — playing a key role for the Clippers, who need others to step up beyond Paul George and Reggie Jackson.
Mann is averaging 4.0 rebounds per game at home over his last five games. And while his assist prop sits at 1.5, he’s done a good job in limited minutes creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Mann is averaging 3.7 potential assists in the Conference Finals.
The Florida State alum shockingly ranks in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding. These metrics are tracked by Cleaning the Glass, and he’s been snatching up 5.8% of his teammates’ missed field goals in the postseason.
Mann is known as the “stat stuffer.” And even though he’s been utilized as an offensive spark, Game 4 will test his ability to impact the game outside of his scoring.
Our Action Projections tool has Mann get 7.1 rebounds + assists, so I’m rolling with the over here at plus odds. This bet carries a bet quality rating of 10-out-of-10.
Paul George over 28.5 Points (-125)
Playoff P has been shouldering much of the offensive load in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, and that’ll continue heading into Game 4. George is averaging 25 shot attempts per game in the Western Conference Finals. He’s also hoisting up 11 3-pointers per contest. To say George is chucking is an understatement.
With Leonard still out, PG-13 will continue to put his foot on the gas and drop buckets. His points market is 28.5, and I’d play the over up to 29.5 at near-even odds.
George is playing a ridiculous amount of minutes in the Western Conference Finals. My colleague Raheem Palmer broke down PG’s minutes really well in his Game 4 prediction article. He’s on the court more than any other player remaining in the playoffs, and has scored the most points as well.
George is averaging 41 minutes per game in this series. He is shooting 38.7% from the field along with 32.4% from 3-point range. Not his best, but he remains aggressive, attacking the defense and getting to the line at least six times per game against the Suns. On a brighter note, he’s averaging 29 points in the Western Conference Finals and 30.4 points per contest since Kawhi Leonard’s injury.
With the Clippers down 2-1 in the series and a chance to even it up, it’s hard to fade a player of George’s caliber in these moments. He’ll continue being the focal point of the offense and score at a high rate despite the inefficiencies.
It took a career night from Ivica Zubac with timely help from role players Mann and Pat Beverley to get back into the series. Best believe, as the best player of the Clippers, it’s on George to set the tone at the onset.
The over has a bet quality rating of 9, and we project George to score 33.7 points in Game 4. His current line is 28.5, and I’d play this up to 29.5. I’m betting the over on PG’s points prop.