Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Tuesday, Dec. 10): Adjust to Kent Bazemore’s Role With Blazers

Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Tuesday, Dec. 10): Adjust to Kent Bazemore’s Role With Blazers article feature image

Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kent Bazemore

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:

  • Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers: 10:00 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Trail Blazers SG Kent Bazemore

THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-134)

Bazemore is a 3-and-D glue guy, but he hasn’t been much of a scorer for the Trail Blazers.

He averaged double-digit points his last four years in Atlanta, but is at only 7.9 points a game in Portland. He also isn’t playing a ton of minutes, even with all the injuries for the Blazers.

Bazemore played a season-high 36 minutes Sunday against the Thunder, and he’s probably going to play more with Rodney Hood out, but he’s only gone over 11.5 points in four of 24 games with the Blazers.

Portland has so many other high usage players that even if Bazemore plays more with the starters, it may not necessarily mean more shots. Our FantasyLabs prop tool projects Bazemore at 8.4 points, and that makes this prop worth a play up to -155.
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Hornets PG Terry Rozier

THE PICK: Over 4 assists (-114) | Over 4.5 rebounds (-114)

Rozier was Charlotte’s big offseason acquisition, and you have to wonder if the Hornets would have invested so much in him if they knew this Devonte’ Graham breakout was coming (spoiler: they wouldn’t have). Rozier has career-highs in both usage (24.2%) and assist rate (21.1%) and has actually been mostly fine, he’s just not Graham.

Rozier is averaging 4.2 assists, and four gets you a push here. Washington has the league’s worst defense, and this game has the highest line of the night by a decent margin, so there should be plenty of scoring chances. Our model projects Rozier at 4.9 assists, and the push option gives you a nice buffer.

The rebounding doesn’t look as promising at first since Rozier’s 7.4% rebounding rate is a career low, but his increased minutes have still given him 4.4 boards per game, right at this number.

The same logic applies here — tonight’s highest scoring game should mean plenty of scoring chances and plenty of misses to rebound. Rozier has gone over 4.5 rebounds in 14 of 25 games (56%), and we project him at 5.4 boards.

Play Scary Terry’s assists up to -150 as needed. His rebounding is worth taking up to -140. Play both together and hope for a big all-around Rozier night and a big prop score for your wallet.
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

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