Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Will Daniel Gafford Even Attempt a Pass? (Feb. 3)
- Our props tool is lighting up on a big NBA slate, and Brandon Anderson has identified three props at plus money that he likes on Wednesday.
- We're targeting a pair of overs and one assist under on a player who almost never passes the ball.
- Get access to all our props with edges at Action Labs.
It’s another Plus-Money Day here at Action Network, with all three plays tonight giving us plus odds.
It’s always important to grab a line early if you like it. Especially with this odd pandemic season, books are moving lines and pulling props altogether on news and action.
If you like these props below, be sure to grab them quickly before these prices disappear completely.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Wednesday night, there are nine total props with a 10/10 rating.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Eric Gordon over 17.5 points (+100)
|Rockets at Thunder||-7|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
John Wall is out, which means Eric Gordon is in.
And Gordon is back this year, perhaps buoyed by a bit more of the ball with James Harden gone, much like the rest of the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have won six in a row and are big favorites to make it seven here, even without Wall.
That’s in part because Gordon is playing well again. His 17.5 points per game are his second highest average since 2012, and Gordon’s getting to the line more often than his New Orleans days too — and we’re talking Hornets here, not even the Pelicans era.
Gordon is a scorer, and he’s scoring plenty this season. He has put up 20 or more points in nine of his 15 games, and he’s a perfect 5-for-5 with at least 20 points in every game he’s started this year for the Rockets. We project Gordon at 32.5 minutes tonight, and that should give him plenty of time to get all the points he needs here.
My only slight concern here is the potential for a blowout with the Rockets playing so well. Gordon played only 23 and 22 minutes his last two games, and the most recent one was a 30-point win against these Thunder. That was with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing too, and SGA is out tonight, but the Rockets shot an unsustainable 54% from three in that game so this one should be a bit closer and Gordon should get his minutes.
I love this over at +100 at DraftKings and would play as high as -135, and if I were making this line, I think I’d set it closer to 19.5.
If you’re really liking Gordon, one other angle you might want to keep an eye on is his odds for Sixth Man of the Year. He’s matching the favorite, Jordan Clarkson, there at 17.5 PPG but sits at +2500 at BetMGM right now, and I could see him getting some buzz if the Rockets stay hot.
Ben Simmons over 7.5 rebounds (+125)
|76ers at Hornets||-7|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
Ben Simmons’s scoring is down this season, but his rebounds and assists have held steadily right at eight per game, in line with the same numbers he’s put up in both columns every year in the NBA.
Simmons has a permanent size advantage and continues to be better than the numbers test. He’s never going to be a flashy scorer, and that will always make him a bit underrated to a casual fan, but he’s a menace defensively and makes his impact on the glass and as a creator.
We’re playing the glass angle here against a Hornets team on a surprising three-game winning streak. Charlotte is just badly outmatched by the 76ers. The Hornets are the second-worst defensive rebounding team in the league, and Simmons should have plenty of chances to get his boards here.
He’s gone over 7.5 rebounds in 11 of 19 games this season, a 58% hit rate that already gives us a slight advantage. But look at the numbers a little more closely and you see even more consistent rebounding than that would lead you to believe. Simmons has played under 32 minutes six times this season, all but one of them a double-digit blowout. When he plays at least 32 minutes, he goes over 7.5 rebounds in 10 of 13 games, hitting this prop 77% of the time.
Like with Gordon, my biggest concern here is the possibility of a blowout win leaving a reduced minutes load for Simmons. But he’s hitting this number often enough to play anyway, especially at +125 at DraftKings. I’ll play this one down to even money.
Daniel Gafford under 0.5 assists (+152)
|Knicks at Bulls||-2|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
Ladies and gentlemen, Chicago Bulls starting center, Daniel Gafford.
Gafford stands 6-foot-10 and weighs 235 pounds wet, but the Bulls have been starting him at center with Wendell Carter Jr. sidelined. Gafford has now been listed as a starter five times this season.
The word “starter” here is doing some serious heavy lifting though. Gafford literally has two 10-minute starts this season. He’s averaging under 15 minutes a game on the season and under 16 MPG even when he starts. Gafford is an energetic rim runner type who can finish with aplomb, but he isn’t physical enough to hang defensively right now and gets into easy foul trouble, and those problems have greatly limited his minutes even as a “starter.”
Gafford also isn’t much of a passer. He has nine assists all season and has been held without a dime in 10 of 17 games, including three of his five starts. Gafford averages one assist every 29 minutes as a professional, and even that is up from his one assist every 36 minutes at the University of Arkansas. The man is out there to roll to the rim and throw down lobs. That’s it.
I have no idea why we get to bet on Daniel Gafford tonight, but our Props Tool makes this the top play of the night with a 27% edge in our favor. We’re projecting him at 10.9 minutes, and if he really plays only 10.9 minutes, he might only pass the ball a couple times his entire evening.
At +152, we only need to hit this prop 40% of the time to be profitable, and the numbers tell us we’re better than 50-50 here.
I’ll play Gafford’s under down to +120 and hope he gets held off the assists box score line once again.