Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Kris Dunn Over/Under 12.5 Points?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Kris Dunn Over/Under 12.5 Points? article feature image

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bulls guard Kris Dunn (32)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his two favorite NBA player props for Tuesday.
  • Props include totals for Bulls PG Kris Dunn's points and Bulls C Robin Lopez's rebounds.

The two NBA player props highlighted below are for the following game:

  • Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers: 7 p.m. ET on WGN

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Bulls PG Kris Dunn

The Pick: Under 12.5 Points (-125)

Dunn is coming off back-to-back 14-point games, but the odds are against him making it three in a row. Those games were keyed by 5-of-10 shooting from 3, but Dunn is a 32.0% career shooter from deep and faces a Pacers defense that’s allowing the third-fewest 3-point makes per game (2.1) and fewest points per game (18.7) in the league to point guards.

Dunn’s usage rate for the season is 20.0%, but it plummets to 14.2% within Chicago’s currently configured starting five of Dunn, Zach LaVine, Otto Porter, Lauri Markkanen and Robin Lopez (per our NBA On/Off tool). With those four on the floor, Dunn is averaging just 7.2 points per 36 minutes.

Even at Dunn’s full-season scoring rate, he would need more than 35 minutes to be on pace for 13 points and more than 32 minutes to be on pace for 12 points. That type of playing time would be above expectation for a player averaging 28.7 minutes in five games since the break with a high of 31.8.

Dunn has been in the single digits 62.5% of the time since the team acquired Porter, so this prop should have value up to under 10.5 at standard juice.

Bulls C Robin Lopez

The Pick: Over 4.5 Rebounds (-135)

Lopez is averaging 6.6 rebounds per 36 minutes alongside the Bulls’ current starting five, which would put him on pace for five at 27.3 minutes and six at 32.3 minutes — both of which are below his average of 33.2 minutes in six games since the break.

The Pacers are top-five in allowing the fewest rebounds per game to point guards, shooting guards, and small forwards, which should afford Lopez a few more opportunities than usual in the fight for boards behind Markkanen.

Lopez has grabbed at least six rebounds in 4-of-6 games since the break, so over 4.5 should have value up to 160 and over 5.5 should have value up to -125.

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