NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Bet on Big Games From Dragic & Butler (Monday, Aug. 31)


Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Win-Loss (Win Pct)
Bet Quality of 10 775-572 (57%)
Bet Quality of 9 942-776 (54%)
Bet Quality of 8 1432-1263 (52%)

*Odds as of Monday at 11 a.m. ET

Monday’s player props come from:

  • Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat at 6:30 p.m. ET

NBA Player Prop Bets

Miami Heat, Goran Dragic

The Prop: Over 2.5 Made 3s (FanDuel)

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Milwaukee Bucks are amongst the league leaders in giving up 3-point attempts. Their defense is designed to take away shots at the rim in favor of 3s as 39.3% of opponent shot attempts come from behind the arc.

Who’s the biggest beneficiary of that?

It has to be Goran Dragic, who is taking a team-leading 7.3 attempts a game from 3-point range and shooting 41.4%. Although one might think that Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder are better options, Dragic is playing more minutes and subsequently averaging more attempts.

I think we see the Bucks sell out on stopping Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo at the rim, leaving open 3s for Dragic. Unfortunately for the Bucks, they won’t be lining up against Markelle Fultz and DJ Augustin, who are shooting 26.7% and 34.8%, respectively, from 3-point range — they’ll be lining up against Dragic who exceeds them in both volume and efficiency.

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Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler

The Prop: Over 4.5 Assists (BetRivers)

This prop is correlated to the one above. With how the Bucks design their defense to limit shots at the rim and concede open 3s, Jimmy Butler should be able to capitalize by kicking it to open teammates.

Although Butler is averaging only four assists during the NBA playoffs (down from six in the regular season), he has already dished out seven assists in his only game against the Bucks this season.

I think that speaks volumes about the way the Bucks defend the Heat vs. how the Pacers defended the Heat in their first-round playoff matchup. Fantasy Labs has him projected 5.6 assists with a bet quality of 9.

Look for Butler’s skills as a playmaker to shine tonight.

[Bet now at BetRivers.]

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