Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Sunday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s four games:
- Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks: 7 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder: 7 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Clippers: 9:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Jazz C Rudy Gobert
The Pick: Under 14.5 points (-130)
Gobert is coming off a 25-point performance, so this line is probably inflated.
He scored 12 or fewer points in his two previous games and will face a difficult individual test against DeAndre Jordan. Gobert makes his living finishing at the rim, and Jordan has limited opponents to 37.1% shooting from inside six feet this season.
Betting unders is scary, but I think Gobert will struggle in this matchup. Still, I probably wouldn’t play it at much higher than -140.
Suns C DeAndre Ayton
The Pick: Under 17.5 points (-114)
Ayton has been as advertised to begin the season, scoring at least 18 points in four of his first five games.
That said, he's due for some regression. He’s shot a ridiculous 69.6% from the field, which is almost certainly unsustainable.
He also didn’t see much of a boost in usage with Devin Booker out of the lineup on Saturday, posting a usage rate of just 18.1%. Ayton has a difficult matchup against Steven Adams and the Thunder on Sunday, and the Suns’ implied team total of 103.25 is the lowest mark on the slate.
Ayton is obviously super talented, but this is arguably his biggest test of the early season. I’d play the under up to -140.
Clippers PF Montrezl Harrell
The Pick: Over 5.5 rebounds (-110)
Harrell has always been a big-time producer on a per-minute basis, and he’s finally getting a chance to play consistent minutes for the Clippers.
Blake Griffin and Jordan are gone, and Harrell has played at least 23 minutes in his past three games. He’s pulled down at least six rebounds in each of those contests and has a great matchup against the Wizards, who have posted the worst rebound rate in the league to start the season.
I’m buying all the Harrell stock I can at the moment, so I’d play this prop up to -150.
