NBA Playoff Picture & Standings: Odds to Make Postseason, Projected Seeding and More

NBA Playoff Picture & Standings: Odds to Make Postseason, Projected Seeding and More article feature image
Credit:

Brock Williams-Smith/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 and Bogdan Bogdanovic #13 of the Atlanta Hawks.

The NBA Playoffs are two weeks away. Teams are battling to the finish for seeding, home court, preferred matchups, and to make it in, or out, of the play-in tournament.

This season the playoff picture looks a bit different with the play-in tournament added. The teams that finish in seventh and eighth in each conference will play for the No. 7 seed; the loser will face the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup for the eighth and final spot in each conference.

Here’s a look at where the eight teams are currently slated to land in the play-in tournament and their odds to make the playoffs.

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Western Conference Playoff Standings

NBA PLAY-IN TEAMS
Seed
Win %
GB
Odds Yes / No
No. 7 Lakers
0.565
-2000 / +850
No. 8 Warriors
0.529
2.5
-129 / +102
No. 9 Grizzlies
0.522
3
+190 / -250
No. 10 Spurs
0.485
5.5
+340 / -500

Playoff odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings


Eastern Conference Playoff Standings

NBA PLAY-IN TEAMS
Seed
Win %
GB
Odds Yes / No
No. 7 Celtics
0.507
-910 / +550
No. 8 Hornets
0.478
2
+165 / -215
No. 9 Pacers
0.478
3
+150 / -195
No. 10 Wizards
0.464
3.5
+120 / -155

Playoff odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings


NBA Playoff Picture

Using our projections, we’ve predicted how the playoff standings would shake out based on simulating the final games of the regular season.

Here’s a look at where the NBA Playoff picture stands as of today:


Based on our model, here are the results of where each team is expected to land and the most likely first-round playoff matchups in each conference:

Projected Eastern Conference Matchups

No. 1 Philadelphia 76ers
First Play-In Winner
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks
No. 5 New York Knicks
No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks
No. 6 Miami Heat
No. 2 Brooklyn Nets
Second Play-In Winner

Projected Western Conference Matchups

No. 1 Utah Jazz
First Play-In Winner
No. 4 Denver Nuggets
No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers
No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers
No. 2 Phoenix Suns
Second Play-In Winner

East Notes

The Atlanta Hawks can clinch at least a top-six spot in the playoffs Wednesday with a win or a loss by the Boston Celtics. The Knicks can also clinch a playoff spot with a Celtics loss. Our projections give the Hawks 45% chance to secure the No. 4 spot in the East and the Knicks are just behind with a 31% chance.

The Chicago Bulls no longer control their own destiny and would be eliminated by a win from the Washington Wizards.

West Notes

The Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers can secure playoff berths with wins and a loss from the Los Angeles Lakers. As of Wednesday, the Mavericks have an 80% chance to grab the No. 5 spot and the Trail Blazers have a 50% chance to become the No. 6 seed, but the Lakers are still looming at 31% to avoid the play-in.

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