NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Trust LeBron’s Vision in Game 2 (Sunday, Sept. 20)
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers passes the ball during Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
- From LeBron James to Paul Millsap, our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool is projecting some top picks for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals.
- Reed Wallach breaks down the three best prop bets for Sunday's matchup below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Odds as of Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET
Sunday’s player props come from Game 2 of the Western Conference finals:
- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James
The Prop: Over 8.5 Assists (-110)
LeBron James, to no one’s surprise, continues to dominate this postseason. After leading the NBA in assists for the first time in his career, averaging more than 10 assists per game, James is averaging nine in the postseason. So, he’s down a smidge, but still has put together double-digit assist performances when the time is right. Game 1 was one of those cases as James dished out 12 dimes in 30 minutes of action, and this prop seems to be too low not to ride the over again.
Our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool is forecasting LBJ for 10.2 assists, nearly a two assist difference, making this a 10 out of 10 rated prop. James can do it all and the Nuggets don’t really have an answer for him.
While capable of going off on a scoring barrage himself, I think that James is going to continue to play the role of facilitator with the idea of keeping his teammates engaged and hit with the Lakers so close to an NBA Finals berth.
I would play this up to -140.
Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic
The Prop: Over 23.5 Points (+100)
While FantasyLabs is projecting Jokic for 22.7 points, I am going to be on his over on Sunday, and it’s all because of the context.
Jokic played in just 25 minutes in Game 1 and still managed to score 21 points without attempting a 3-point shot. He was in foul trouble for most of the game, some of them questionable calls, and I anticipate a more aggressive Jokic in Game 2.
While he is multi-dimensional and capable of feeding his teammates for buckets instead of getting his own, I think Jokic is going to call his own number tonight and clear this prop. With the Player Prop projection right around the number, projected for 22 points, and a low vig, I feel confident the situations can push this projection a bit higher.
I would play this to -125 and root for Jokic to play Game 2 with a purpose, and hopefully get a few makeup calls.
Denver Nuggets, Paul Millsap
The Prop: Under 8.5 Points (-121)
As a Millsap Stan, it hurts for me to be on this under, but I’m not sure there is space on the floor for the veteran this series.
While it was only a game, the results weren’t pretty for Millsap, scoring five points in 20 minutes and picking up three fouls. The game became a blowout pretty early on so there was no need to play him down the stretch, but I believe we see similar minutes in Sunday’s matchup as he’s projected to play 25 in our NBA Lineups tool.
Millsap can get physical with Anthony Davis, but won’t have the length or speed to contain him and is too small to bother the Lakers’ centers. Jerami Grant will probably slide up and play more power forward as the Nuggets shift their rotation a bit and Millsap may be the odd one out.
I’d play this to -135, there likely isn’t enough shots or playing time for Millsap to break nine points in Game 2.