NBA Player Props: A Betting Pick for Nikola Jokic’s Points Over/Under (Sunday, Aug. 30)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic (right) guarded by Rudy Gobert.
- Looking for NBA player prop picks on Sunday's playoff slate? You're in the right place.
- One game remains on tonight's schedule -- Nuggets vs. Jazz at 8:30 p.m. ET -- and it features a prop bet offering plenty of value.
- Read below to find out how to bet Nikola Jokic's points over/under tonight.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Sunday’s player props come from two of the slate’s three games:
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic
The Prop: Under 25.5 points (-125)
The Jazz are trying to turn Jokic into a scorer in this series, and so far, it’s working. Jokic has scored at least 28 points in four of five games against Utah and is averaging 26.4 PPG, brought down only by his complete no-show in Game 3. Rudy Gobert is much more comfortable at home near the rim rather than getting out on the perimeter, so Utah is dropping Gobert and challenging Jokic to beat them.
So what will change today? Jokic knows he can’t do this alone, and that’s not really his style anyway. One player Jokic has always had terrific offensive chemistry with is Gary Harris, and after what feels like years (2020, y’all), Harris is finally back in action Sunday. He has yet to play a minute of live action since the season went on hiatus in March, but Harris is a guy that can change the dynamic of this series.
With both Murray and Harris spotting up and taking dribble handoffs off Jokic’s playmaking, Utah’s defense will be stretched to its limit, and Gobert may not be able to just wait in the lane for the game to come to him. Denver needs two more wins, and I expect Jokic to do all he can to get his teammates going because he can’t score his way to those two victories.
We’re projecting Jokic at only 19.9 points, so there’s a real margin for error here. The line has already dropped from 26.5 so grab it soon. I’ll play the under 25.5 down to -175 but all the better if it drops a bit and gives us better odds.
Dallas Mavericks, Tim Hardaway Jr.
The Prop: Under 4.5 rebounds (-105)
With Kristaps Porzingis now out for the season, Dallas is down to Luka Doncic and a host of shooters and role players. The Mavericks haven’t had any luck stopping the Clippers on defense, so they’re just going to have to outshoot and outscore LA on the other end.
Hardaway has been one of Dallas’ most consistent scorers this series, recording between 17 and 22 points in all five games. The Mavs need him out there, and we’re projecting him at 35.5 minutes. That’s a whole lot of rebounding opportunities in a fast-paced, run-and-gun game. So why are we fading Hardaway’s rebounds then?
Because that’s just not Hardaway’s strength. He averaged only 3.3 RPG in the regular season and 4.0 per 36 minutes. That 4.0 is right in line with his average this series. The Clippers are the bigger team with their many wings, so Hardaway is reduced mostly to long rebounds. Hardaway is also struggling with a strained neck, which could make him just that much less to go diving in for that last key rebound or two. It could end up sidelining him for a reduced minutes role, too.
We’re going under 4.5 rebounds here and playing up to -125.
Los Angeles Clippers, Marcus Morris
The Prop: Over 12.5 points (-120)
We’ve been here before with Marcus Morris, but the line keeps sticking so we’re back again. The Clippers continue to rely heavily on Morris against Dallas since he’s one of a few good two-way options healthy on the roster right now with Patrick Beverley continuing to ail.
LA is having no trouble scoring on the Mavs, but they’re having a very hard time getting enough defense on the court and Morris is one of their only reliable defenders right now. He played over 32 minutes in each of the first four games of the series, and though he dropped to 27.6 in Game 5, that’s because it was a blowout.
We’re projecting Morris just over 32 minutes once again in a chance to knock the Mavs out, and if you’ve ever watched the Morris twins, you know they’re going to take their shots while they’re out there on the court. Marcus is averaging 13.6 PPG for the series and has at least 12 points all but one game this series. We’re rating this prop a 10 out of 10. Let’s play it to -140.