The NBA regular season is back in action with a jam packed 14-game slate this Wednesday. So, I've locked in a total of 9 picks spanning five of today's contests, including bets for Bulls vs. Celtics, Thunder vs. Suns, Grizzlies vs. Nuggets, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Wednesday, February 11.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Wednesday, February 11
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Pacers vs. Nets
Over 214.5
The over is 4-0 in the last four Nets' games.
This line assumes these teams can’t score because it’s a tank-off. But when you are playing bench guys, they know how to dribble and shoot. They don’t know how to defend together. This is basically going to be a pick-up game.
With Rick Carlisle as the coach of the Pacers, the over is 14-11 when the total is below 215, and 29-22 when it’s below 220.
The Pacers are still going to play Pacers basketball.
There’s no reason to believe that either team is going to lock down and try in this game, and that pushes the over.
Tank-offs do tend to go under; they are 22-16 to the under since the bubble in games between teams with below 30 percent win percentages.
However, Brooklyn’s model numbers are inflated by a December where they were the best defense in the league for about six weeks, and then returned to a horrible joke.
The Pacers play fast, the Nets play slow, but the Pacers are better at getting you to play their style.
Neither team is going to want to win from an organizational standpoint, and the last time that happened in a Nets game, the Wizards scored a miserable amount of points against Brooklyn.
The Pacers are going to be without a full playoff-caliber rotation, but they also have a litte more talent and fewer fringe NBA players than the Nets do.
Get ready for a ragged but fast-paced game. I project this over, and while the projections are questionable given the tanking, I still like it with how Brooklyn has played defensively over the last month.
Pick: Over 214.5
Knicks vs. 76ers
76ers -2.5
There’s no telling who’s going to play for the Knicks tonight. This is their Vaya Con Dios game with the All-Star break starting immediately after.
Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns may get a head start on heading to L.A., and the rest of the team may head to whatever tropical isle they'll spend the week on.
OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson rested Tuesday night, so you’d assume they play.
For the 76ers, Joel Embiid is questionable as always, along with Quentin Grimes and Dominick Barlow.
This is all about the spot.
- The Sixers are 8-3 ATS this season against teams on a back to back.
- How’s this for a crazy trend? Teams are 1-7 SU this year on a back-to-back after playing the Pacers, and 2-6 ATS. The pace seems to take something out of them.
The Knicks are a dominant offensive rebounding team, but there’s a stat that is downright puzzling in relation to that:
This season, when facing an opponent who is below-average in defensive rebounding, the Knicks are worse against the number, going 13-20 (39.4%) ATS. The Sixers are a below-average defensive rebounding team.
This line is below the average Knicks line, thanks to the road back-to-back spot, and in games where the line is worse than the Knicks’ average line, New York is 10-15 ATS this season.
My model leans Knicks here as long as three starters play, but the circumstances are extenuating, and the matchup isn’t great.
Philadelphia has the speed to get downhill on a tired Knicks team.
Tyrese Maxey should generate good looks out of pick-and-roll and the Sixers’ depth is in a good spot to find open looks.
If Brunson sits, the Knicks record is 1-4 SU and ATS without him this season.
If Brunson is not there to lead New York's offense, it likely stalls out, and the defense is pretty even with the Sixers.
If Embiid plays, Mitchell Robinson is a good matchup for him, but Embiid can put him in foul trouble.
I’m expecting a sluggish, ugly game (lean under) that the Sixers manage to win to send the Knicks into the break with a disappointing two-game losing streak after their recent hot streak.
Kelly Oubre Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Oubre leads the Sixers in corner three-point attempts and is shooting 47% from those spots.
The Knicks give up the fifth-most corner three-point attempts in the league.
Joel Embiid Under 36.5 Points & Rebounds (if he plays)
Embiid will struggle with Robinson on the glass, and takes more of his shots from mid-range than he does in the paint.
The Knicks give up a low percentage of mid-range shots and allow a low conversion percentage as well.
Embiid will likely have a quieter game than most are expecting.
Pick: 76ers -2.5, Kelly Oubre Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made, Joel Embiid Under 36.5 Points & Rebounds (if he plays)
Bulls vs. Celtics
Celtics -13.5
This is a lot of points to lay, but the Celtics are well positioned here.
The Celtics don’t have the bigs to smash the Bulls inside or hurt them on the offensive glass.
The Bulls take a lot of threes, but the Celtics take more. The Bulls make a lot of threes, but the Celtics make more.
I make the spread for this game Celtics -16.5 based on the changes made to the roster at the deadline for Chicago.
I like the Bulls' roster and think Collin Sexton showed up willing to be a leader. I also like Jalen Smith against his former teammate Nikola Vucevic.
It’s a revenge spot for Anfernee Simons who was dealt by Boston for Vucevic last week.
However, the Bulls have no idea how to play together yet and are still missing their connector, Josh Giddey.
Here's a trend: Joe Mazzulla is 11-6 ATS at home against teams in which he lost the last regular season matchup against them. The Bulls beat the Celtics last time out.
I’m expecting a big win for the Celtics heading into the All-Star Break with the possibility of Jayson Tatum’s revenge looming large.
Over 225
Bulls' games have gone over four straight by an average of 16.5 points per game.
It turns out, when you stop trying defensively (whatsoever) and only deploy guards, your defense will have a hard time.
Boston struggles offensively with big teams that can throw athleticism at their guards without Jayson Tatum on the floor.
The Celtics can’t create penetration to leverage the defense and find the rotation threes they want, but the Bulls are critically undersized with Collin Sexton as their biggest guard now.
Meanwhile, Boston’s weak-point defensively is threes; they allow the third-most in the league and the 13th-highest three-point percentage.
The Bulls are absolutely bombing from long range this season, especially since their trades.
Expect an absolute onslaught of offense.
Even with Boston’s absolutely glacial pace, I expect this to turn into an up-and-down pre-All-Star affair that sees Boston pull away but the Bulls will keep firing.
Pick: Celtics -13.5, Over 225
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Clippers vs. Rockets
Rockets -9
This is a “Duplex Spot,” as the Rockets and Clippers just played Tuesday night in Houston, which resulted in a win for the Rockets.
Kevin Durant might skip out early for All-Star Weekend; same with Alperen Sengun. But Kawhi Leonard might do the same, who is the Clippers’ only All-Star for the game at their building.
Also, the Rockets are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS without Durant this season.
The trends all back Houston here:
- When Ime Udoka is in this Duplex spot, facing a team for the second time within a matter of days as a home favorite after winning as a home favorite in the first matchup, he is 15-10 ATS in his time with the Rockets.
- Teams favored at home in the second game of a Duplex spot after winning the first are 98-78-2 ATS since 2003 (56%).
- When Ty Lue is off a loss facing a team he lost the previous matchup to, he is 15-25 ATS in the regular season since 2023.
The matchup is good too.
The Rockets don't have to worry about Ivica Zubac on the glass or as rim protection, and don’t have to stress about James Harden in pick-and-rolls.
The Rockets have excellent perimeter defenders to throw at the Clippers’ isolation, and their base defense is simply much better than L.A.'s, with the Clippers still trying to integrate new pieces after the trades, currently playing with a makeshift roster.
The Clippers are likely to be distracted by hosting the All-Star Game and shook from all the craziness of the trades over the last week.
Houston needs to win these games badly to catch up in the West playoff race.
I’ll lay the points with the Rockets tonight.
Over 208.5
Houston posted an ugly win on Tuesday, and Leonard and Durant might both miss this game, making the offenses worse.
However, that would also increases the pace and open up the floor up for the athletes on both teams.
In games after the previous game goes under, the Over in Clippers games is 17-8 (68%) this season. They tend to go Under on back-to-backs, but this is a different team now with younger talent they are trying to showcase.
In the last 10 years, games headed into the All-Star Break have trended Over at a 55% clip.
Everyone is tired and distracted and excited to go on vacation and don’t have to worry about coaches yelling at them in film tomorrow.
I’ll take a little contrarian play on the Over.
Pick: Rockets -9, Over 208.5
Thunder vs. Suns
Suns -8
My theory is basically that without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, you can beat the Thunder if you are a serious team.
The Lakers are not serious without Luka Doncic, hence Monday’s defeat — but the Suns are serious.
For starters, the Suns are a much better defensive team than the Lakers.
The Suns force the most turnovers in the league — even more than Oklahoma City — and without both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell, the Thunder are more prone to turnovers and offensive stall-outs that lead to turnovers.
The Suns struggle on the glass and foul a lot. Meanwhile, the Thunder are middle of the pack in rebounds and don’t draw many fouls outside of SGA, who juices their numbers there.
Phoenix is also well built offensively to match up against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder give up a ton of three-pointers. They dare you to hit against closeouts, and the Suns are top-10 in both attempts and makes from deep.
Phoenix is 19-11 ATS when the opponent allows an above-average rate of 3-point makes.
Devin Booker is the best player on the floor in this game.
The Thunder are coming off a feel-good win over the Lakers.
The Suns already have a win against the Thunder with Shai from earlier this season, and Phoenix is 18-9 ATS at home.
I will absolutely grab the Suns here, even on the back-to-back, and even if Devin Booker skips out early for All-Star weekend.
Pick: Suns -8
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